There are always forks in the road along a football club's journey from mediocrity to greatness, or indeed in the other direction. Geelong and Essendon clash on Saturday night pondering another.
The Cats are in rare trouble, having lost six of their past seven games after a great start, and with those long-held predictions of their demise as a power perhaps finally starting to be realised.
Essendon, meanwhile, is in third spot on the ladder without having convinced many that the Bombers are truly back as a force. It's been too long and there's been too many false dawns along the way.
Geelong in that time has so often proved the harsh reality check for the Bombers, even as early as the first game of the season a couple of years ago.
So as the Dons contemplate an opportunity to make what would be for their own confidence a massive statement, it's timely to recall the 20th anniversary of just when the Cats' psychological stranglehold over the Bombers began.
The two clubs' paths crossed dramatically in 2004 when they met in that season's semifinal, though we weren't to know it at the time.
Back then, it was Essendon which was the heavyweight, the Dons having made finals seven years in a row, won a premiership and played in two grand finals. Geelong, meanwhile, was still growing into its own skin under the coaching of Mark Thompson, a clutch of gifted kids from a couple of drafts with names like Gary Ablett, Jimmy Bartel, Paul Chapman and Steve Johnson.
The more experienced Bombers had just beaten Melbourne in an elimination final and the youthful Cats been smashed by Port Adelaide in a qualifying final. The popular script suggested the more seasoned pros might roll over the Cats, knocking them out in straight sets. But Geelong had other ideas.
On a wet night and a heavy MCG deck, the Cats jumped straight out of the blocks, dominating play and only inaccuracy preventing them from compiling a potentially match-winning lead, 2.5 to just four behinds the tally at quarter-time.
But the scoreboard began to tick over in the second term, whilst Geelong's defence denied Essendon even a sniff, the Bombers with just one goal to the half-time break, trailing the Cats' 5.8 by (in the conditions) a long 26-point gap.
Ablett was all class and Bartel, who'd finish with 33 disposals, prolific, the pair of 20-year-old emerging stars leading the charge. Darren Milburn and Joel Corey were the defensive drivers, and former Eagle David Haynes and Chapman chipped in with a couple of goals each.
Essendon's only goal for the half was kicked by the ever-reliable champion spearhead Matthew Lloyd, and the Bombers had major injury problems after Ted Richards was crunched by Cat Tom Harley and Dustin Fletcher and Sean Wellman had to come off.
By time-on of the third quarter, the Bombers had still kicked only two goals and Geelong's lead by now blown out to 43 points, and it was still 33 at the final change after two goals to Essendon's Jason Johnson.
Chapman steadied the ship, but after showing little all evening, Essendon belatedly found something.
Lloyd kicked his second. Then a third. Justin Murphy weighed in. Then James Hird kicked a freakish checkside snap on the run from the boundary. When Jobe Watson ran into an open goal, the gap, incredibly was down to just 10 points. But there was no time left. Geelong would hang on.
It was the Cats' first finals win for nearly a decade, the start of an era which perhaps still isn't dead. For Essendon, which chaired off the retiring Mark Mercuri and Wellman, it was the end of one, and the darkest period in the club's entire history was about to begin. And the extent to which these two clubs' paths diverged?
Well, including that Saturday night in September 2004, Geelong has won four premierships, played in six grand finals, and played 44 finals games. Essendon's defeat was the first of seven subsequent finals losses over two decades, the Bombers' failure to win a final since the week before this semifinal one of social media's most popular memes.
Geelong's overall winning percentage over that journey is a phenomenally successful 69.4. Essendon's is 41.4. And head-to-head? The Cats have toyed with the Bombers for nearly that whole time, in 24 clashes the Dons winning just four times.
Geelong's won 12 of the past 14, too, on six occasions the margin more than 10 goals. Indeed, the most recent clash was one of the most sobering for Essendon, destroyed by 77 points in round 18 last year at the Cattery, a soul-crushing loss which effectively spelt the beginning of the end for the Bombers' finals push.
The significance of victory on Saturday night for Essendon is obvious. But given the extent of the Cats' recent troubles, it's arguably no less important for them.
One thing for certain is that whoever loses this week will be praying the next 20 years don't play out similarly for them as they did for the Dons post-2004.
You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY.