There are game-defining moments. There are season-defining games. And then there's games upon which not just an entire season rests, but indeed the perception of an entire era. That's Brisbane's lot on Saturday night.
It's happened rather quickly in the Lions' case, but the snowball effect begins with Joe Daniher three weeks ago missing a simple shot to put his team 23 points up and out of reach late against Collingwood at the MCG.
The Pies pounced, two goals to Lachie Schultz and another to Beau McCreery giving them the unlikeliest of wins and ultimately condemning Brisbane to fifth place and a September of sudden death.
Instead of a double chance and the possibility of a home preliminary final, the Lions, should they overcome Carlton in Saturday night's elimination final at the Gabba, face the tallest of orders to win that elusive premiership, three more wins in three weeks at three interstate venues then required.
It's an unlikely prospect. And now Brisbane stands on the brink of elimination from a premiership race that looked its to lose less than a month ago. Then, it was second on the ladder, just half-a-game behind a badly out of sorts Sydney, having won nine games in a row and looking set for two home finals en route to the MCG on grand final day.
Now, if Brisbane and coach Chris Fagan can't pull out their greatest run of performances yet, that will make a sixth consecutive year of consistent regular season achievement falling short of the ultimate prize.
Could the Lions withstand that much disappointment to presume an eighth tilt at the holy grail in 2025 was a given?
Geelong might have been able to withstand repeated September failures enough to finally clinch the deal in 2022, but far more common is the example of sides whose hearts and spirits were eventually broken by too many cases of oh-so-close-but-yet-so-far. And there's been a few for the Lions.
Since their resurgence in Fagan's third season as coach in 2019, Brisbane has three times in six seasons finished the regular season second on the ladder, top four in four years out of six, and counting this year, with at least a home final in the other two.
But for all those handy placings on the September starting grid, the net return so far is one narrow grand final loss, two preliminary final smashings and two more nail-biting losses in semifinals. Indeed, it's hard to think of the Lions these days without channeling Don Adams' famous line from TV comedy "Get Smart": "Missed it by that much!"
Does that equate to failure? Of course, if one is realistic about the difficulty of winning an AFL premiership in the modern age, it shouldn't. Because Brisbane keeps fronting up and putting itself in a position to win. Over those six seasons in home and away rounds, its record is 91 wins and a draw from 129 starts, a strike rate of more than 70 per cent. That's imposing.
Even the finals record under Fagan, which was a dismal 1-5 after Brisbane's straight sets exit from September in 2021, is now a more respectable 5-7. There's been a stunning finals win (against Melbourne) on the Lions' hoodoo ground of the MCG, and of course they led last year's Grand Final against Collingwood as late as time-on of the final term.
But that's not how the snap, summary judgements of AFL teams' achievements work. Four other clubs have won flags during Brisbane's run near the top of the ladder, and one of them (Richmond) two. And the all-important post-season ladder position for the Lions reads two fifths, two fourths and a runners-up.
That agonising 2023 grand final defeat should have been the moment the Lions really grew up. That day they conquered their MCG fears. For once they made the most of their chances, unlike their opponent. Two of the brightest but occasionally faltering stars in Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron performed when it mattered. The Lions were shattered, but still so close they could taste it.
Instead, 2024 has delivered pretty much more of the same, right from the start, when against the same opponent as tomorrow evening, Brisbane let slip a 46-point lead, losing Keidean Coleman for the season in the process.
He was soon to be followed by Lincoln McCarthy, Darcy Gardiner and recruit Tom Doedee, and with just two wins from seven games, the Lions were in all sorts. Again, like on grand final day, they found something, Dayne Zorko outstanding shifted to defence, Kai Lohmann a revelation up forward.
From 2-5, Brisbane won 11 and draw another of its next 13 games. Statistically, it was dominant. It ended the home and away season, according to Champion Data's premiership standards, ranked top six in 32 of 38 statistical categories, the Western Bulldogs the only other team which even came close.
Yet, once again it shot itself in the foot, blowing a match-winning lead against the Giants the week before Daniher's costly miss late in the last quarter at the MCG. Daniher played a fine game that day, but his miss so symbolised the sort of untimely lapse, even if just for a moment, which has cost Brisbane so dearly for a long time now.
And so here it stands again on the precipice, not just its season on the line, but this time perhaps its entire reputation. Its consistent performances over a six-year period deserve more, but a loss now will enshrine the Lions as the proverbial "coodabeens".
High stakes indeed. And no matter how Fagan dresses it up to inspire the right mindset among his charges, for Brisbane, this really is anything but just another game.
You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY