CHICAGO -- Let's be clear: Chicago Cubs pitchers Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks weren't robbed of the 2016 National League Cy Young Award, which went to Washington Nationals hurler Max Scherzer on Wednesday. But they were disrespected, in that voting wasn't as close as it should or could have been.
Scherzer garnered 25 of 30 first-place votes. Lester finished second overall and had one first-place vote, and Hendricks finished third overall and had two (Clayton Kershaw had the other two first-place votes). For a year in which a reasonable case could have been made for any of the three pitchers, Scherzer ended up running away with the honor, totaling 192 points to Lester's 102 and Hendricks' 85. A lot of that has to do with the weight given to first-place votes. Scherzer got seven points for each first-place vote, while second- through fifth-place votes were worth 4-3-2-1 points, respectively. Still, Lester was left off two ballots entirely, and Hendricks was left off one.
It's a bit of a surprise that Lester and Hendricks didn't get more first-place votes. This was not a year in which one pitcher was the clear winner, though the voting seems to point that way. The feeling here is that voters made up their mind going into the final month, and Hendricks and Lester finalized their cases down the stretch. By then, Scherzer was the clear leader in strikeouts and innings pitched.
Lester, in particular, made a huge run late in the year, producing a 0.48 ERA in five September starts. Hendricks also made a second-half push, compiling a 1.68 ERA after the All-Star break, the lowest in the league. It contributed to his MLB-best 2.13 ERA for the season. But in the end, voters undoubtedly liked Scherzer's 228⅓ innings pitched to go along with an MLB-leading 284 strikeouts. His WHIP (0.97) and batting average against (.199) were in line for a Cy Young winner, but his 2.96 ERA and 31 home runs allowed were knocks against him.
It's possible that Lester lost some second-place votes to Hendricks and vice versa, whereas Scherzer was the main man on the Nationals' staff, especially after Stephen Strasburg went down with an injury. So maybe they didn't get robbed, but a better appreciation was due. Hendricks' changeup recorded more outs than any other hurler using that pitch. Lester had his signature cutter working as well as a nasty curveball, with opponents hitting just .092 in at-bats that ended on it, lowest among NL pitchers with at least 15 starts.
In the end, Lester garnered most of his points via second- and third-place votes. Hendricks had 12 total votes in fourth and fifth place, which wasn't much less than the 15 total votes he got in second and third place. Some voters simply thought there were three or four pitchers more deserving of the award than Hendricks.
Perhaps the biggest question of Cy Young night is about sustainability. We know Lester and Scherzer have it, but can Hendricks stay on an elite track? Some will argue he was a product of good luck and a good defense, but a league low 8.9 percent hard-hit rate among ERA qualifiers tells a different story. Light or no contact is the name of the game for pitchers, and while Scherzer dominated in the "no contact" aspect, it was Hendricks who kept hitters from squaring up even if he wasn't striking them out.
Will he repeat a 2.13 ERA? That's hard to predict. Is he a one-year wonder? Anyone who watched the Cubs would have a definitive answer, despite him losing out on the Cy Young Award. Hendricks just proved his staying power for the past seven months -- why can't he continue it?