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ESPN Staff Writer- Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.
LAS VEGAS -- When I told people this week that I was working on an NBA season betting guide, the most common response was "Why?"
The conventional wisdom is that we should just skip the regular season because the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers are on a collision course to meet again in the NBA Finals. Any future-book bets on any other teams are seen as throwing money away. My ESPN Chalk colleague Erin Rynning even says that the only way to bet futures on any other team is if you can predict injuries to LeBron James or to one of the Warriors' stars (and in the case of the Warriors, who added Kevin Durant to an already loaded roster, you might need to take away more than two stars to keep them from contending).
But we're going ahead with this NBA betting guide anyway because, as I like to tell the naysayers: Even if we concede that the Warriors (prohibitive 2-7 favorites to win the Western Conference) and Cavaliers (1-4 to win the Eastern Conference) are destined to meet in the Finals, there are still plenty of betting opportunities this season, as there are 1,230 regular-season games and between 60 and 105 playoff games (the former if all series are sweeps; the latter if all go the maximum 7 games). Besides, nowadays more people bet their "futures" on over/under season win totals. With traditional futures, if you like a team, they have to win the title (or their conference if you're betting that way), but with over/under season win totals they just have to exceed expectations to cash the bet. You also have the option to face a team by betting them to fall short of the season win total.
So I'll start with a quick note on future bets for this season, then Rynning and I will give our best over/under season win totals and some teams we're looking to bet and fade in games early this season.