Reason for optimism: The offense returned to dominant form by plating 845 runs, by far the most in the National League.
Reason for pessimism: That optimism applies only 81 days per season.
Even though his specific résumé might differ from a generation of his Rockies brethren, Larry Walker's Hall of Fame case isn't being done any favors by the modern-day Rockies. Colorado, with an apparent bevy of exciting stars, returned to dominant offensive form last season, leading the National League in runs scored. With a whopping 845 runs, they became the first team in the Senior Circuit to lead the league and score more than 800 runs since the 2009 Phillies. Man, those guys can hit, right?
Then you take a look at their season through the home and away lens, and it tells a very different tale. On the road, which isn't a perfect leveler of playing fields due to unbalanced schedules but does come close, the Rockies not only didn't score 400 runs (St. Louis and Chicago did, and the Nationals just missed) but also finished 10th in the National League in road scoring. Even that is deceiving because they were just seven runs away from finishing 14th!
Yes, Nolan Arenado is a legitimate superstar, and yes, Trevor Story was the second coming of Troy Tulowitzki, and DJ LeMahieu won a batting title, and Charlie Blackmon ... STOP. Your eyes, my eyes and, I suspect, oddsmakers' eyes are all deceived, no matter how much we tell ourselves we know that Coors Field skews results.
So confident is Colorado's front office in its ability to get huge offensive production from anyone it plugs in the lineup that the Rockies signed Ian Desmond -- a shortstop for all but the last of his eight major league seasons -- to play first base. When you see Desmond hit something like .305/.340/.525 this year and you think the unconventional move didn't cost the Rockies, ask yourself what visiting first basemen hit at Coors.
I reference visitors' performance at Coors because for all the fireworks the Rockies set off, even at home they barely had a winning record, finishing 42-39 last year. That's because, of course, the pitchers give up a lot of runs too.
For years, the combination of soft-tossing starters, many with fly ball tendencies, and the huge field at Coors formed the worst possible scenario for Colorado's staff. Last year, in Jon Gray, they unleashed a homegrown starter with high strikeout capabilities and low fly ball tendencies. How much of a change in philosophy does that represent? The Rockies have had more than 200 starting pitchers throw at least 20 innings in a season since the franchise formed in 1993, and Gray is the first one to strike out at least 25 percent of the batters he faced.
Given that, I have a lot more confidence that Gray might finish 2017 with an ERA below 4.00 than I do that either Tyler Anderson (3.54 ERA in 2016) or Tyler Chatwood (3.87) will again, though Anderson's extreme ground ball tendencies are promising. Whoever is on the mound, they never seem to get the much-needed, above-average support on defense. The huge field in Coors skews that, but a simple glance at the staff's BABIP on the road (.299) suggests a defense that is average at best in a park-neutral setting.
A constant theme of these outlooks is that price matters, regardless of an outlook of decline or improvement. At 80.5 wins, oddsmakers have assigned the Rockies their highest total wins figure since 2012, clearly suggesting that the Rockies are a team on the upswing and a threat to post a winning record; Colorado hasn't, in fact, posted a winning record since 2010. The park factors present model builders and handicappers with a unique set of problems, and therefore, whatever your conclusion, you know it comes with higher variance bands than other conclusions. Therefore, for me at least, there's no such thing as a high-conviction call on the Rockies.
Still, I have to make a call here. When I look at the entire roster and think about its production in a park-neutral environment, I don't see a team that outscores its opponents. Given this year's total wins market, that makes this an "under" call.
2017 projection: 76-86 (fourth, NL West)
Bet recommendation: Under