As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers with those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is FPI's implied line. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into Week 11!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 12-5-11
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Baltimore Ravens (-6, 45) at Chicago Bears
FPI Implied Line: Ravens -3.5
The Ravens have sneakily been worse than you think this season on a play-by-play efficiency level. The biggest shocker is the defense, which has quietly been below average all season, ranking 21st in EPA per play. They have virtually no edge over Chicago on defense, both efficiency-wise and in terms of what FPI expects going forward.