The countdown to Super Bowl LVI between the favored Los Angeles Rams and the underdog Cincinnati Bengals has begun, and action at sportsbooks on a game that's expected to have billions of dollars riding on it is heating up.
We'll follow it all right here -- the biggest bets, the wackiest wagers and prolific prop bets -- in ESPN Chalk's updating Super Bowl betting notebook.
• $5 million on the Bengals money line at +170 for a potential win of $8.5 million. (Caesars)
• $4.5 million on Bengals +170 to win $7.7 million. (Caesars)
• $1,567,500 on the Rams -4 (-110). A bettor with Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada has placed three $522,500 bets on the Rams -4 (-110), totaling $1,567,500, according to a spokesperson for the book.
• $1.1 million on Rams money line (-175) for a potential net win of $600,000. (Caesars)
• $1 million two-leg parlay on the Bengals money line +170 and under 48.5 to win $4.15 million. (DraftKings)
• $1 million on Rams -0.5 (+105) in the first quarter. (BetMGM)
• $1 million on Rams -2.5 (-120) in the first half. (BetMGM)
• $1 million on Rams over 13.5 (-115) in the first half. (BetMGM)
• $612,500 on Rams money line (-175) for a potential net win of $350,000. (Caesars)
• $500,000 money line on Rams (-200) for a potential net win of $250,000. (BetMGM)
• It's always difficult to know exactly what the worst-case scenario is for sportsbooks on the Super Bowl. The betting on the point spread has been relatively balanced at most sportsbooks, with the Bengals attracting a little more action than the Rams at the majority of shops. The outcomes of the slew of proposition wagers likely will have just as much -- if not more -- of an impact on the bookmakers' bottom lines.
"All the late money has been on Cincinnati, tipping the balance to the point where we're now cheering for the home favorite," Jay Croucher, head oddsmaker at PointsBet, said in a release.
Caesars Sportsbook, however, has booked itself into a position of needing the Rams to win, but not cover, which is typically the best outcome for bookmakers on the Super Bowl.
As kickoff approached, here were the percentage of bets and amount wagered at Caesars Sportsbook:
Spread: 56% of the bets are on the Bengals, but 60% of the money wagered is on the Rams. Total: 55% of the bets and 52% of the money wagered are on the under. Money line: 73% of the bets are on the Bengals, but 53% of the money wagered is on the Rams.
• "Clear/water" as the color of Gatorade to be dumped on the winning coach has attracted the most money in the market today, overtaking "yellow/green" for the largest handle overall at PointsBet.
• Ninety-minutes before kickoff, it really feels like the first Super Bowl that NFL has completely embraced sports betting. Commercials for sportsbooks will air for the first time ever during the Super Bowl, and odds were being integrated into the pregame show on the network broadcast.
• Some sportsbooks seem destined to need the favored Rams to cover the spread, a rarity for the Super Bowl. Sportsbooks almost always need the underdog to cover the spread in Super Bowls.
John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook, said the Rams covering in a "low-scoring, quiet game" would be the best outcome for his shop. Murray said the last time he remembered needing the favorite to cover in the big game was Super Bowl XLVII, when the favored San Francisco 49ers lost to the Baltimore Ravens. Murray remembers needing the Niners to cover in that Super Bowl.
• The best outcome for DraftKings is Rams and under, according to sportsbook director Johnny Avello, who notes, "It's tightening up a bit."
• Over 50% of the money that's been bet on the Super Bowl at BetMGM is on "non-core markets, MVP, first TD player props, first half, single-game parlays," Jason Scott, vice president of trading for BetMGM, said in a text message. "It's watch the game and see how it plays out."
4 p.m.
• A few hours prior to kickoff, the best-case scenario for Las Vegas-sportsbook Circa, which is known to cater to professional bettors, was Rams to cover 4.5 and under 48.5.
• Two of the larger prop bets placed at The Borgata in Atlantic City:
$75,000 on Matthew Stafford throwing one or more interceptions $57,000 and Joe Mixon to have over 26½ receiving yards.
Tom Gable, sportsbook director for the Borgata, said in an email that he feels good about his shop's position on the Super Bowl. "Best-case scenario for us is a Bengals outright win and the under," Gable said in an email.
• During a Sunday interview on Vegas Stats and Information, Jeff Stoneback, who oversees BetMGM's Nevada books, said that 18 of the 20 largest bets he's taken are on the Rams.
3 p.m.
• Text from Mattress Mack: "At work. Selling furniture. Customers matter. Bengals will do very well."
• Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale is responsible for the two largest reported bets on the Super Bowl, $5 million and $4.5 million on the Bengals money line. He's using the betting market to mitigate his risk on a promotional giveaway. If the Bengals win, customers who spend $3,000 on furniture with McIngvale's Gallery Furniture will receive a refund. McIngvale is in position to win a net $16.2 million if Cincinnati pulls the outright upset.
• Mike Pereira, former vice president of officiating for the NFL and a current rules analyst at Fox Sports, tweeted that he was watching the Super Bowl at the sportsbook at Circa in Las Vegas.
• 2 -- the number of Super Bowls that Nevada sportsbooks suffered a net loss. The books lost a record $2.6 million when the underdog New York Giants beat the New England Patriots17-14 in Super Bowl XII. They also got dinged for approximately $397,000 in 1995, when the heavily favored San Francisco 49ers won and covered in a 49-26 win over the San Diego Chargers in 1995.
2 p.m.
• The sportsbook at South Point in Las Vegas moved the line to Rams -5 Sunday. The consensus market line remains Rams -4.5.
• One interesting stat: The eventual Super Bowl champions are 31-1 against the Jets in the regular season in the Super Bowl era, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. The one loss was by the Patriots in Week 2 of the 2001 season, in which Drew Bledsoe got hurt and his backup Tom Brady took his job for good.
• From Caesars Sportsbook on Slack: "Another big bet just came in on No Safety. $18K to win $2K."
• Late in the week, Caesars elected to drop its money-line price on the Rams to -175 for around 24 hours. At that price, Caesars reported taking money-line bets for $2.1 million and $1.1 million, as well as three mid-six-figure bets on the Rams.
1 p.m.
• Five hours prior to kickoff, multiple sportsbooks find themselves in an unusual position -- needing the favorite to cover the spread in the Super Bowl.
"Our biggest bets in this game are almost all on the Bengals," John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook, said Sunday. "As it stands now, we want the Rams and to win and cover, despite being losers to them in the futures book."
"The public is divided," Jay Croucher, director of trading, for PointsBet, said. "Money has been flipping around for two weeks. All our early and late money has been on Cincy; everything in between on the Rams. This late Cincy wave has flipped things decisively -- we're in the odd position of needing the underdog and over on the Super Bowl. And please God, do not let Cooper Kupp score a touchdown."
DraftKings also reported having more money on the Bengals than on the Rams in its point-spread market.
12 p.m.
• Sportsbook PointsBet is seeing an uptick in betting interest on the Bengals, both plus the points and on the money line: 57% of the money on the point spread is backing underdog Cincinnati. The sportsbook also reported seeing an increase in action on the under: 56% of the bets are on the over, but 53% of the money is on the under. Yesterday, 57% of the money on the total was on the over.
• The most popular side on a prop bet at Caesars Sportsbook -- by both number of bets and amount of money wagered -- is tails on the opening coin flip. The second-most popular prop side? Heads.
10 a.m.
Bettors divided on Super Bowl entering Sunday
The betting action was heavy and split at sportsbooks entering Sunday as support continued to trickle in for the underdog Bengals.
Most interesting bets
• A bettor placed a $20 wager with the SuperBook that the Bengals will score exactly four points in the Super Bowl at 10,000-1 odds. If Cincinnati manages only two safeties, the bettor would win $400,000.
Along those same lines, another bettor risked $100 on the Rams to finish with exactly five points at 2,000-1 odds.
• The largest bets placed on the coin flip as of Wednesday afternoon at Caesars Sportsbook were $6,300. The book said it had taken two bets on the coin flip for that exact amount: one on heads, the other on tails.
Caesars also reported taking a pair of $2,500 bets on which team will win the coin flip: one of the Rams, the other on the Bengals.
• If the Super Bowl kicked off Wednesday, the South Point sportsbook in Las Vegas would be rooting for the Bengals to cover the spread and for the game to go over the total. "But a long way to go," Chris Andrews, sportsbook director at the South Point, said.
• Rams WR Cooper Kupp is generating significant interest in the odds to score the first touchdown at PointsBet, where he is the favorite in the market at +475. There have been nearly as many bets on Kupp to score the game's first touchdown as there have been on the Rams' point spread, according to a PointsBet spokesperson.
• $7,500 on Rams defensive lineman Aaron Donald to be named Super Bowl MVP at 16-1 for a potential net win of $120,000 (BetMGM).
• A bettor with FanDuel needs Donald to win Super Bowl MVP to complete a $1 six-leg parlay that pays $2,400. The first five legs featured NBA wagers from Feb. 5 action, including four player props and the Milwaukee Bucks on the money line against the Portland Trail Blazers. All five hit.
• $5,000 on the Rams' final score to end in 1 and the Bengals' final score to end in 7 at 80-1. Potential net payout of $400,000. It's the largest bet placed on Caesars Sportsbook's Super Bowl squares offering as of Monday.
• $1,800 on the Bengals to beat the Rams by at least 31 points at 55-1 odds for a potential net win of $99,000. Bet was placed Jan. 30 with Caesars Sportsbook in New Jersey.
• $1,200 to win $240,000 on the final score being Bengals 24, Rams 17.
• $1,000 on will a registered offensive lineman score a touchdown at 25-1 odds. (Caesars)
• $1,000 on Bengals kicker Evan McPherson to be named MVP at 100-1 for a potential net win of 100-1. (BetMGM)
• $100 on no touchdowns being scored in the game at 100-1. (BetMGM)
• $400 on Bengals to score 0 points at 150-1 for a potential net win of $60,000. Bet was placed Feb. 3, in New York with Caesars Sportsbook.
• $1,000 on a registered offensive lineman scoring a touchdown at 25-1 odds. (Caesars)
• $150 for the Bengals to win by at least 49 points at 150-1 for a potential net win of $15,000. (BetMGM)
Notable bets
• Caesars Sportsbook posted approximately 2,000 different types of bets on the Super Bowl. The one that had attracted the most interest as of Monday -- the coin flip. Tails had attracted 55% of bets and 53% of the money wagered.
• Sportsbook PointsBet operates in nine states: Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Virginia and West Virginia. The Bengals money line is the most popular Super Bowl bet in seven of the nine states.
Futures bets at stake
• $50,000 on Bengals at 20-1 to win a net $1 million. (BetMGM)
• $13,440 on Bengals at 35-1 to win a net $470,400. (Caesars)
• $10,000 on Bengals at 40-1 to win a net $400,000. (BetMGM)
• $18,000 on Rams at 14-1 to win a net $252,000. (Caesars)
• $20,000 on Rams at 9-1 to win a net $180,000. (FanDuel)
• $15,000 on Bengals at 8-1 to win a net $120,000. (FanDuel)
'Mattress Mack' places $4.5 million on Bengals to pull Super Bowl LVI upset
Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale, the Houston furniture salesman known to place giant hedge bets, has done it again -- this time with the biggest single wager he's ever placed.
On Thursday, McIngvale drove across the Texas border into Louisiana, pulled over at a gas station, logged onto his mobile betting account with Caesars Sportsbook and placed $4.5 million in bets on the underdog Bengals at +170 odds to upset the favored Rams in Super Bowl LVI. If the Bengals spring the upset, the bet would net $7.7 million.
Caesars Sportsbook said it was the second-largest bet the company has ever taken on the Super Bowl, eclipsing a $4.9 million money-line bet at -900 odds on the heavily favored St. Louis Rams to beat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XXXVI. The Patriots won 20-17.
Louisiana betting public flocks to support Joe Burrow
The betting public is flocking to bet on Joe Burrow in the Super Bowl, especially in the bayou.
The three most popular Super Bowl player props at Caesars Sportsbooks in Louisiana -- by both number of bets and amount wagered -- involve Burrow. No other player prop is even close.
As of Thursday, the over on Burrow's passing touchdowns (1.5) against the Rams had attracted twice as many bets as there were on any other player prop. The Burrow passing touchdown prop also had attracted more than four times the amount of money that was staked on any other prop. The over on Burrow's rushing yards (11.5) and the odds on him running or catching a touchdown are the next two popular prop bets in Louisiana.
Burrow was already a popular bet to be named Super Bowl MVP last week, before the Bengals knocked off the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. He attracted a $1,500 bet at 10-1 and a $1,000 bet at 10-1 last week from bettors in Louisiana and Arizona respectively.
Burrow's Super Bowl MVP odds have since been trimmed to +220. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is the favorite at +220.
Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp, at +700, is the only other player with single-digit MVP odds at Caesars Sportsbook. Kupp attracted the largest bet so far on the Super Bowl MVP at Caesars: $6,000 at +700 from a bettor in Colorado, according to Caesars.
Super Bowl betting by the numbers
$2.8 billion: The amount wagered on the Super Bowl with Nevada sportsbooks since 1991, the first year the state's gaming control began tracking the betting on the NFL championship.
2: The number of Super Bowls that Nevada sportsbooks suffered a net loss. The books lost a record $2.6 million when the underdog New York Giants beat the New England Patriots 17-14 in Super Bowl XII. They also got dinged for approximately $397,000 in 1995 when the heavily favored San Francisco 49ers won and covered in a 49-26 win over the San Diego Chargers in 1995.
$217.8 million: The net win on the Super Bowl for Nevada sportsbooks since 1991.
27-26-2: The betting favorite's record against the spread in the Super Bowl.
20: The number of outright upsets by betting underdogs in the Super Bowl.
26-27-1: The number of Super Bowl overs and unders with one push. (There was no archived betting total for Super Bowl I.)
66%: Share of the point-spread bets which are on the Bengals at Caesars Sportsbook.
57%: Share of the total money wagered which is on the Rams at Caesars Sportsbook.
Late money coming in?
Jay Croucher, sportsbook director at PointsBet, is expecting the amount wagered on the Super Bowl with his book to double Sunday. Croucher said, as of Wednesday morning, that PointsBet needed the underdog Bengals plus the points.
"The early money was on the Bengals, but I think the more the public has thought about this game, they look at the Bengals as a team that was 10-7 and lost to the Jets," Croucher said.
Bookmakers at The SuperBook have been surprised by the amount of action the underdog Bengals are attracting on the point spread. As of Friday, there approximately 2.5 times more bets on the Bengals plus the points than there were on the favored Rams.
"Usually the public will take money line on the 'dog, instead of the points," John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook, said Friday. "That's definitely surprised us some. The Bengals are a very popular underdog."
DraftKings also reported more point-spread action on the underdog Bengals than the Rams. At DraftKings, 66% of the bets and 56% of the money wagered was on the Bengals.
• Sharp players targeted the under when it opened at 51 at the SuperBook. It's been bet down to a consensus 48.5 around the market as of Friday. "But we know that the public is going to play the over; but the public isn't going to be in town until next week. And, if it goes under, that's probably good for props, and props represent 50-60% of handle on the game." Murray said.
• Oddsmakers had differing opinions on the result of kickoffs in the Super Bowl. Caesars Sportsbook on Wednesday opened the over/under on number kickoff returns in the Super Bowl at 3.5 (-180 over). On Thursday, the SuperBook opened at 5.5 (+120 under). Bettors jumped on the under at the SuperBook, causing the vig to bet the under to grow from +120 to -210. "That bet got more business than any of the others," Murray said. "That's got to be people playing our number against other people's number." The line at Caesars had dropped to 4.5 kickoff returns as of Friday.
