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College football Week 9 betting trends: Can Penn State cover vs. Ohio State?

Penn State has covered five of their last six games against Ohio State. Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

The 2022 college football season has finally past the midway point as conference races begin to take shape in Week 9. There are a number of marquee in-conference rivalries on tap but perhaps none bigger than the odds-on Heisman Trophy favorite C.J. Stroud and the No. 2 Ohio State facing No. 13 Penn State in Happy Valley on Saturday afternoon.

In the Big-12, No. 9 Oklahoma State looks to keep on rolling after thrilling victory over Texas with a matchup against a scrappy No. 22 Kansas State team and in the SEC No. 5 Tennessee faces No. 19 Kentucky.

There are plenty of questions and games to wager on this weekend, and we have everything you need to make your betting decisions ahead of Week 9.

Check out all of the notes and trends courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information.


Thursday

Virginia Tech at No. 24 NC State (-13.5, 40)
7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, North Carolina

  • Virginia Tech is 0-3 ATS on the road this season, tied for the worst road cover percentage in the ACC.

  • Virginia Tech has covered each of its past five games against NC State.

  • NC State has failed to cover in each of its past four games.

  • NC State is 18-5 ATS following a bye since the start of the 2005 season.

No. 14 Utah (-8, 55.5) at Washington State
10 p.m. ET, Martin Stadium, Pullman, Washington

  • Washington State is 0-4 ATS following a bye since the start of the 2019 season.

  • Washington State is 1-6 to the over this season, tied for the 4th-lowest over percentage in the FBS.

  • Utah is 35-18-1 in Pac-12 play since the start of the 2016 season, the best in-conference cover percentage in the Pac-12 over that span.

  • Seven of Utah's last eight road games have gone over the total.

Saturday

No. 2 Ohio State (-15.5, 61) at No. 13 Penn State
noon ET, Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pennsylvania

  • This is the second-largest favorite that Ohio State has been against a Top-15 Penn State team since the FBS/FCS split in 1978. The largest came in 2019 against then No. 9 Penn State (-20.5).

  • Ohio State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games as a double-digit favorite.

  • The over is 16-4-2 in Ohio State road games since the start of the 2017 season, the highest over percentage in the FBS over that span (min. 5 games).

  • Penn State has covered five of its last six games against Ohio State.

No. 7 TCU (-7.5, 68) at West Virginia
noon p.m. ET on ESPN, Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, West Virginia

  • West Virginia has covered each of its last six games against TCU dating back to 2016.

  • West Virginia is 4-1 ATS against AP-ranked opponents since the start of last season.

  • TCU is 5-0-1 ATS as a road favorite since the start of the 2020 season, tied for the best such cover percentage in the FBS over that span.

  • Five of TCU's last six games have gone over the total.

Notre Dame at No. 16 Syracuse (-3, 47)
12 p.m. ET on ABC, JMA Wireless Dome, Syracuse, NY

  • Syracuse is 6-1 ATS this season, tied for the 2nd best cover percentage in the FBS.

  • Syracuse is 5-1 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season, the second-best such cover percentage in the FBS over that span.

  • Notre Dame is 8-2 ATS in road games since the start of the 2020 season, the best road cover percentage in the FBS over that span.

  • Notre Dame is 3-0 ATS as a road underdog since the start of last season.

Florida at No. 1 Georgia (-22.5, 57)
3:30 p.m. ET, TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL

  • Georgia is 1-6 to the over this season, tied with Kentucky and Missouri for the lowest over percentage in the SEC.

  • The 22-point spread is the largest favorite Georgia has been over Florida since the FBS/FCS split in 1978.

  • Florida is 31-14-4 ATS against AP Top-10 opponents over the past 20 seasons, the best such cover percentage in the SEC over that span.

  • Florida has failed to cover six of its last seven following a straight-up loss.

No. 8 Oregon (-17, 58) at California
3:30 p.m. ET, California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, California

  • California is 4-0 ATS as a home underdog since the start of the 2020 season.

  • California is 3-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog since the start of last season.

  • California is 14-4 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2019 season.

  • Oregon is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite.

No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 22 Kansas State (-1.5, 56.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kansas

  • Oklahoma State is 11-1-1 ATS in Big-12 play since the start of last season, the best such cover percentage in the Big 12 over that span.

  • Oklahoma State is 7-0 ATS on the road since the start of last season. That's the best road cover percentage in the FBS over that span.

  • Oklahoma State is 17-4-1 ATS against AP-ranked opponents since the start of the 2018 season. That's the best such cover percentage in the Big 12 over that span.

  • Oklahoma State is 6-1 to the over this season, tied for the 2nd-highest over percentage in the FBS.

No. 10 Wake Forest (-4, 62) at Louisville
3:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network, Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky

  • Wake Forest is 6-1 ATS this season, tied for the second-best cover percentage in the FBS.

  • Wake Forest has covered each of its last three road games dating back to last season.

  • Louisville is 5-12 ATS against AP-ranked opponents since the start of the 2016 season, the worst such cover percentage in the ACC over that span.

  • Louisville has covered each of its past three games against Wake Forest.

No. 17 Illinois (-7.5, 50.5) at Nebraska
3:30 p.m. ET on ABC, Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, Nebraska

  • Nebraska is 4-11 ATS as a home underdog over the past 10 seasons.

  • Illinois has covered five of its last six road games.

  • All four of Illinois' games against teams with losing records went under the total this season.

  • Illinois is 3-0 ATS coming off a bye since the start of last season.

No. 20 Cincinnati (-1, 56) at UCF
3:30 p.m. on ESPN, FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, Florida

  • UCF is 9-19 ATS following a straight-up loss since the start of the 2015 season.

  • Each of Cincinnati's last three games have gone under the total.

  • The under is 25-10 in Cincinnati's 35 road games since the start of the 2016 season.

  • That's the highest under percentage on the road in the FBS over that span.

  • Cincinnati is 3-0 ATS when the line is between -3 and +3 since the start of the 2019 season.

Missouri at No. 25 South Carolina (-5, 47)
4 p.m. on SEC Network, Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, South Carolina

  • Missouri is 1-6 to the over this season, tied for the 4th-lowest under percentage in the FBS.

  • Missouri is 7-15 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2015 season.

  • South Carolina has failed to cover in three straight and five of its last six games as an AP-ranked team.

  • South Carolina has gone over the total in each of its last three home games.

No. 19 Kentucky at No. 3 Tennessee (-12.5, 63.5)
7 p.m. on ESPN, Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tennessee

  • Tennessee is 6-1 ATS this season, tied for the second-best cover percentage in the FBS.

  • All five of Tennessee's home games this season have gone over the total.

  • Kentucky is 3-0 ATS against AP-ranked opponents this season.

  • Kentucky is 5-16 to the over on the road since the start of the 2018 season, the lowest road over percentage in the FBS over that span.

No. 10 USC (-15, 75) at Arizona
3:30 p.m., Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Arizona

  • Arizona is 3-0 ATS following a straight-up loss this season.

  • Arizona has gone over the total in four of its last five games.

  • USC has covered four of its last five games as a road favorite.

  • Ten of USC's last 12 games that have followed a bye have gone under the total.

Michigan State at No. 4 Michigan (-22, 54.5)
7:30 p.m. on ABC, Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan

  • Michigan State has covered 12 of its last 14 games against Michigan.

  • Michigan State has failed to cover each of its last four games against AP Top-5 opponents.

  • Michigan State has failed to cover each of its last four games as a double-digit underdog.

  • Michigan is 13-5 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season, the best such cover percentage in the Big Ten over that span.

No. 15 Ole Miss (-2.5, 55.5) at Texas A&M
7:30 p.m. on SEC Network, Kyle Field, College Station, Texas

  • Each of the last seven meetings between Ole Miss and Texas A&M have gone under the total.

  • All three Texas A&M home games have gone under the total this season.

  • Ole Miss has gone over the total in three consecutive games.

  • Ole Miss is 3-0 ATS as a road favorite since the start of last season.

Pittsburgh at No. 21 North Carolina (-3.5, 64.5)
8:30 p.m. on ACC Network, Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, North Carolina

  • North Carolina has failed to cover each of its past six games following a bye week.

  • North Carolina is 1-8 ATS in games off more than 6 days of rest since the start of the 2020 season.

  • Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS following a straight-up loss since the start of last season.

  • Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season, the 2nd-best road cover percentage in the FBS over that span.

Stanford at No. 12 UCLA (-16.5, 64.5)
10:30 p.m. on ESPN, Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California

  • UCLA is 6-1 to the over this season, tied for the second-highest over percentage in the FBS.

  • All four of UCLA's Pac-12 games have gone over the total this season.

  • Stanford is 7-16-1 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2019 season.

  • Stanford is 4-10-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog since the start of the 2019 season.