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College football Week 12 betting trends: Why UCLA could spoil USC's title hopes

Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the UCLA Bruins have gone 4-1 ATS following a straight-up loss since the start of last season. AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

As the College Football Playoff race heats up, Week 12 presents a number of intriguing matchups featuring CFB Top 25 teams. However, all eyes are on the two ranked teams in the Pac-12 as the No. 7 USC Trojans meet the No. 16 UCLA Bruins for a crosstown rivalry game at the Rose Bowl. Caleb Williams and the Trojans are looking to make their case for the playoff by adding another ranked win to their resume while Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Zach Charbonnet and the Bruins look to play spoiler.

Elsewhere in the nation, the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines face a scrappy Illinois Fighting Illini team in a game featuring two of the best running backs in the country, Heisman Trophy candidate Blake Corum and the nation's leading rusher, Chase Brown. No. 4 TCU Horned Frogs take on Baylor in Waco and No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes face the unranked Maryland Terrapins.

With plenty of questions and games to wager on this weekend, we have everything you need to make your betting decisions ahead of Week 12.

Check out all of the notes and trends courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information.


Thursday

SMU at No. 21 Tulane (-3, 65)
7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, Louisiana

  • Tulane is 8-2 ATS this season, tied with Tennessee and Oregon State for the 3rd-best cover percentage in the FBS.

  • Tulane is 14-4 ATS as a home favorite since the start of the 2019 season, the 3rd-best such cover percentage in the FBS over that span.

  • Tulane is 20-8 ATS as a favorite since the start of the 2019 season, tied for the 4th-best such cover percentage in the FBS over that span.

  • Each of SMU's last four games against ranked opponents have gone under the total.

Saturday

Navy at No. 20 UCF (-16.5, 53)
11 a.m. ET on ESPN2, FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, Florida

  • Navy is 5-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season. That's the most covers without a loss as a double-digit underdog this season.

  • Navy is 4-0 ATS on the road this season, tied for the best road cover percentage in the FBS.

  • Navy is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.

  • UCF has covered each of its last three games.

Illinois at No. 3 Michigan (-17.5, 43)
noon ET on ABC, Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan

  • Illinois is 5-1 ATS as a road underdog since the start of last season, the 2nd-best such cover percentage in the Big Ten over that span

  • Illinois is 6-1 ATS over its past seven games.

  • Michigan has gone over the total in just two of its nine games this season. The Wolverines .222 over percentage is the lowest in the Big Ten this season.

  • Michigan is 15-6 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season, the best such cover percentage in the Big Ten over that span.

No. 4 TCU (-3, 56.5) at Baylor
noon ET, McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas

  • TCU is 8-1-1 ATS this season, the best cover percentage in the FBS this season.

  • TCU has covered 12 of its last 15 games against Baylor.

  • TCU is 6-1-1 ATS as a favorite and is 4-0-1 ATS on the road this season.

  • Baylor has covered 11 of its last 15 games as a home underdog dating back to the 2011 season.

Louisiana at No. 19 Florida State (-23.5, 52.5)
noon ET on ESPN3, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Florida

  • Florida State has covered each of its last three games.

  • Florida State is 5-1 ATS in games in November or later since the start of last season.

  • Louisiana is 9-3 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2019 season, tied for the 3rd-best such cover percentage in the FBS over that span.

  • Each of Louisiana's last three games against teams with winning records have gone under the total.

No. 15 Kansas State (-7.5, 55) at West Virginia
2 p.m. ET on ESPN+, Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, West Virginia

  • Kansas State is 14-6-1 ATS as a favorite since the start of the 2019 season, the best such cover percentage in the Big 12 over that span.

  • All three of Kansas State's games against teams with losing record have gone under the total this season.

  • Four of West Virginia's five home games have gone over the total this season.

  • West Virginia has covered four of its past five games against Kansas State.

Boston College at No. 18 Notre Dame (-21, 46)
2:30 p.m. ET, Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, Indiana

  • Notre Dame is 0-5 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season.

  • Notre Dame is 0-4 ATS against teams with losing records this season.

  • Notre Dame has covered each of its last three meetings with Boston College.

  • Boston College is 1-4 ATS on the road this season.

No. 1 Georgia (-22.5, 49) at Kentucky
3:30 p.m. ET, Kroger Field, Lexington, Kentucky

  • Kentucky is 1-9 to the over this season, tied with Colorado State for the lowest over percentage in the FBS.

  • All five of Kentucky's games against teams with winning records have gone under the total this season.

  • Georgia is 12-3 ATS as a road favorite since the start of the 2019 season, the 3rd-best such cover percentage in the SEC over that span.

  • Georgia is 6-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season, the best road cover percentage in the SEC over that span.

No. 2 Ohio State at Maryland (-27.5, 63)
3:30 p.m. on ABC, SECU Stadium, College Park, Maryland

  • Maryland has failed to cover each of its past five games, tied with Cincinnati for the longest active cover losing streak in the FBS.

  • Maryland has failed to cover eight of its last 10 games following a straight-up loss.

  • Each of the last seven meetings between Maryland and Ohio State have gone over the total.

  • 17 of Ohio State's 24 road games have gone over the total since the start of the 2017 season.

Miami at No. 9 Clemson (-19.5, 46.5)
3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Memorial Stadium, Clemson, South Carolina

  • Miami is 2-8 ATS this season, tied for the 2nd-worst cover percentage in the FBS.

  • Miami is 1-5 ATS in conference play this season, tied with NC State for the worst such cover percentage in the ACC.

  • This is the fourth time Miami has been a double-digit underdog over the past six seasons. The Hurricanes are 0-3 ATS in the previous three instances.

  • Clemson has covered each of its last three meetings with Miami.

  • Clemson is 3-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite since the start of last season.

No. 11 Penn State (-19.5, 45) at Rutgers
3:30 p.m. ET, SHI Stadium, Piscataway, New Jersey

  • Penn State is 3-0 ATS as a road favorite this season.

  • All four of Penn State's road games have gone over the total this season.

  • Each of the last eight meetings between Penn State and Rutgers have gone under the total.

  • Rutgers is 1-5 ATS as a home underdog since the start of last season.

No. 24 NC State at Louisville (-5, 47.5)
3:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network, Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky

  • Louisville is 3-0 ATS as a home favorite this season.

  • NC State is 0-3 ATS on the road this season.

  • NC State has failed to cover in six of their last seven games.

  • NC State is 1-5 ATS in conference play this season, tied with Miami for the worst such cover percentage in the ACC.

Texas (-9, 64) at Kansas
3:30 p.m. ET, David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, Kansas

  • Texas is 3-0 ATS following a straight-up loss this season.

  • Kansas is 4-0-1 ATS at home this season, the best such cover percentage in the Big 12.

  • Kansas is 7-2-1 ATS this season, the 2nd-best cover percentage in the Big 12.

  • Kansas has covered each of its last five meetings with Texas.

Georgia Tech at No. 13 North Carolina (-20, 63.5)
5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2, Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, North Carolina

  • Nine of the last 11 meetings between Georgia Tech and North Carolina have gone over the total.

  • Georgia Tech has covered four of its last five games as an underdog.

  • Georgia Tech has gone over the total is three consecutive games.

  • North Carolina has failed to cover each its its last four games as a double-digit favorite.

No. 5 Tennessee (-21.5, 65) at South Carolina
7 p.m. ET on ESPN, Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, South Carolina

  • Tennessee is 8-2 ATS this season, tied with Tulane and Oregon State for the 3rd-best cover percentage in the FBS.

  • Tennessee is 7-1 ATS as a favorite and 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season.

  • Each of the last three meetings between Tennessee and South Carolina have gone over the total.

  • Each of South Carolina's three games against teams with winning records went under the total this season.

No. 14 Ole Miss (-3, 58.5) at Arkansas
7:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network, Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Arkansas

  • Arkansas has covered eight of its last nine meetings with Ole Miss.

  • Arkansas is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 games as an underdog.

  • Ole Miss has gone under the total in each all six games in November or later since the start of last season.

  • Ole Miss has gone over the total in three straight and four of its last five games.

No. 7 USC (-2.5, 74.5) at No. 16 UCLA
8 p.m. ET, Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California

  • Each of the last four meetings between USC and UCLA have gone over the total.

  • USC has gone over the total in four consecutive games.

  • USC is 1-6 ATS when the spread is between -3 and +3 since the start of the 2016 season.

  • UCLA is 4-1 ATS following a straight-up loss since the start of last season.

UAB at No. 6 LSU (-14.5, 52.5)
8 p.m. ET on ESPN2, Tiger Stadium (LA), Baton Rouge, Louisiana

  • UAB is 0-4 ATS on the road this season.
    UAB has failed to cover in four of its last five games.
    UAB has gone under the total in each of its three non-conference games this season.
    LSU is 5-1 ATS at home this season, the 2nd-best home cover percentage in the SEC.

Colorado at No. 17 Washington (-30, 62.5)
9 p.m. ET, Husky Stadium, Seattle, Washington

  • Colorado is 0-5 ATS on the road this season.

  • Colorado is 2-8 ATS this season, the worst cover percentage in the Pac-12.

  • Colorado has been a double-digit underdog in every game this season.

  • Washington has failed to cover in each of its last five games as a favorite.

No. 10 Utah at No. 12 Oregon (-3, 62.5)
10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon

  • Utah is 5-0 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2017 season.

  • Utah is 3-0 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2020 season.

  • Four of Oregon's five home games have gone over the total this season.

  • Oregon has covered four of its past five games.