After several big upsets shook up the Eliminator Challenge landscape in Week 3, last week ended up much calmer. There were some dramatic finishes, including the Eagles needing overtime to advance 15% of entrants, but with the exception of the Pittsburgh Steelers, eight of the nine most popular picks won.
This week, there are two picks that stand out above the rest -- the Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions. Mike Clay's model rates this as the Dolphins' best chance to win any game this season, while ESPN Analytics' model predicts this as the best spot to use the Lions this season. Both have home games against the current bottom two teams in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics.
The strategy could come down to looking ahead to Week 6. Next week, the Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills are clearly the top three choices right now. If you have already used the Chiefs and Bills, saving the Dolphins for next week is prudent. If not, then the Lions get a slight edge. Since this article has already used the Bills and Chiefs as the top picks in Weeks 2 and 4, the Lions get the nod this week.
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Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions
Ford Field, Detroit
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
It's been a long time since the Lions were a top pick in Eliminator Challenge. This is their largest favorite role since 2017. ESPN Analytics gives the Lions a 77% chance of winning, their highest in any game this season. Mike Clay is even more bullish on the Lions, giving them a 90% win probability. His model also offers four more Lions games with at least an 89% chance of winning, so there will be plenty of additional opportunities to use the Lions. But with extra rest at home against a struggling Panthers team, this is as good a time as any to use Dan Campbell's squad.
Mike Clay chance to win: 90%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 77%
Caesars Sportsbook: 9.5-point favorites (-455 money line)
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
This is the biggest point spread of the week, as the Giants have quickly become one of the top teams to fade in the NFL. They are the only team that is 0-4 against the spread, and they are the only team that ranks last in EPA per play on both offense and defense. Plus, they are on a short week after playing Monday. Meanwhile, the Dolphins look to right the ship after a divisional loss to the Bills. Everything points to this being a great bounce-back spot for the Dolphins, who still grade as the second-best team in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics.
Mike Clay chance to win: 89%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 87%
Caesars Sportsbook: 11-point favorites (-600 money line)
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders
FedExField, Landover, Maryland
Thursday 8:15 PM ET
The Commanders are tied for the third-biggest favorites this week based on the point spread. Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics aren't so bullish, as they make the Commanders the sixth- and seventh-biggest favorites this week respectively. However, in large pools, burning the Commanders could pay dividends down the road. There are only two more games the rest of the season that the Commanders are expected to be favored in -- both against the Giants. Taking the Commanders incorporates more risk in the short term, but if they win, you are better positioned in the long term.
Mike Clay chance to win: 67%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 61%
Caesars Sportsbook odds: 5.5-point favorites (-260 money line)