What is worth betting in the NFL in Week 16? And what are the best plays to help you make smart wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum, Anita Marks, Seth Walder and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET.
Cowboys at Dolphins (-1, 49.5) is a big one as the two 10-4 teams battle in Miami. How are you betting this game?
Fulghum: I am going to make the Cowboys prove it to me before I bet on them. This is far from my strongest conviction of the week, but I'll take the Dolphins -1. Tyreek Hill should be back and ready to roll. The offensive line injuries that Miami is dealing with are scary considering the opponent, but this game is at home and I trust Mike McDaniel to coach around that mismatch.
Walder: Give me Dolphins -1. One area I think we could see a difference: play-action. The Dolphins (31%) and Cowboys (29%) run play-action at the highest and third-highest rates in the NFL. But their defenses respond very differently to it. Miami holds serve against it -- it ranks fourth in EPA per dropback overall and fourth when facing play action. But Dallas does not: the usually stout Dallas defense that ranks third overall in EPA per dropback but 22nd against play. That's not a number you want to see when squaring off against the Dolphins.
Marks: OVER 47.5 (-140). Neither team has a great track record against above .500 teams. Both defenses have faced weak schedules against opposing offenses with subpar QBs. Dak Prescott always seems to bounce back after bad performances. The Dallas defense struggles against rush attacks that include fullbacks, which the Dolphins do utilize more than most. The Cowboys are 0-3 on grass, allowing 28 points or more in those matchups.
Schatz: I'm also scared about the Miami offensive line injuries but the matchups here do seem to favor the Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa is the No. 1 quarterback in DVOA on passes over the middle of the field, where the Dallas defense ranks only 25th. Tagovailoa is the No. 2 quarterback throwing deep, where the Dallas defense ranks only 19th. The Dolphins offense is generally better vs. nickel and the Cowboys defense plays almost entirely in nickel. And most importantly, the Cowboys now rank 16th in run defense DVOA and dead last in success rate allowed. That's not good against a Dolphins offense that excels with speed and misdirection runs. Add in that the Dolphins defense is improved -- they rank fourth in DVOA since Week 10! -- and I'll go with Dolphins -1.
What's your favorite game to bet on among the Saturday and Sunday games?
Fulghum: I think the Minnesota-Detroit game is going to be a fun one to be involved in on Sunday. Nick Mullens looked very capable in his first start on the road at Cincinnati. He threw for 300 yards and 2 TDs. It helps to have Justin Jefferson back and healthy. Ty Chandler makes the run game far more explosive than what they had with Alexander Mattison. I think we get a high-scoring game in a domed environment that goes back and forth from start to finish. Vikings +3.5 (-120) | OVER 46.5 (-115)
Schatz: I just have a hard time believing that the Atlanta Falcons (28th in DVOA) are better than the Indianapolis Colts (17th). Injuries are an issue, but Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor both are pushing to play this weekend. Gardner Minshew should be able to take advantage of a Falcons defense that ranks dead last in pass rush win rate and just 30th in pass defense DVOA. Rather than betting a tiny spread, give me Colts moneyline (Even).
What's your favorite prop bet on Saturday or Sunday?
Fulghum: Justin Jefferson OVER 79.5 receiving yards (-120). Jefferson earned 10 targets and turned that into 84 yards last week in Cincinnati. His chest injury didn't seem to bother him. Mullens is going to look his way often and the Lions' pass defense has been suspect this season. This feels like it could be a classic JJettas eruption spot.
Schatz: Pat Freiermuth OVER 25.5 receiving yards (-115). I've been riding "any tight end against the Bengals defense" for a while now, so why not Freiermuth, who has been getting the ball more since Eddie Faulkner took over as offensive coordinator. Yes, Freiermuth has been held below 20 yards in the past two games, but again, that Cincinnati defense allows an opponent-adjusted 70 yards per game to tight ends, most in the NFL.
Walder: Calais Campbell UNDER 0.5 sacks (-175). This is just way too attractive of a price. Campbell is a long-time great player, because he isn't the same guy he used to be. Back in 2017 his pass rush win rate was a very strong 21%. Today, it's 10%. Plus, Gardner Minshew takes sacks at a lower-than-average rate. My model makes the fair price on the under -299. If I'm right, that's a ton of value.
With three weeks to go in the regular season, what futures bet is jumping out to you as one to make right now?
Fulghum: Kevin Stefanski Coach of the Year (+900). This bet is losing value by the day so jump on it before the Browns potentially move to 10-5 on the year with a win in Houston. If that is the case, how can Stefanski not be considered one of the favorites? This team is defying all expectations this season despite using four different starting quarterbacks, dealing with bulk injuries on the offensive line, and playing virtually the entire season without their All-Pro running back Nick Chubb. Coaching is about adjustments and overcoming adversity and no coach has had to adjust to more adversity this season than Stefanski.
Walder: Jalen Carter is currently -5000 to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. If I could bet no on that I would in a heartbeat -- he'll probably win but there are absolutely counterarguments. For example: he's been on the field for just 49% of the Eagles' defensive snaps. That "No" bet isn't offered, but I would sprinkle a little money on Devon Witherspoon (+1600), Joey Porter Jr. (+10000) and Brian Branch (+10000). On the two longshots: there are numbers to back up their strong play. They have each allowed just 0.8 yards per coverage snap. For Porter Jr., that makes him second-best in the category among outside corners with at least 200 coverage snaps. For Branch, that makes him No. 1 among slot corners (based on where players actually play, not roster position).
Is there anything else you're playing on Saturday and Sunday?
Jack Campbell UNDER 5.5 tackles + assists (-105). Campbell's playing time has been up and down throughout the year but in the past two games he's played under 60% of the Lions defensive snaps. The Lions figure to be ahead and that should push the Vikings toward passing plays (which result in fewer tackle opportunities for linebackers). Plus, Minnesota skews toward pass plays anyway: they've been slightly above average in terms of pass rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, even just since Kirk Cousins has been out. My model projects 4.5 tackles + assists for Campbell.
Moody: Pat Freiermuth OVER 2.5 receptions. I agree with Schatz, the Bengals are atrocious at covering tight ends. Cincinnati gives up 7.0 receptions per game to the position, the most in the league. Freiermuth has averaged 8.4 targets and 6.0 receptions per game versus the Bengals in his career. It's worth mentioning that over 3.5 receptions is +160.
Moody: David Njoku OVER 49.5 receiving yards. Joe Flacco and Njoku have a great rapport. In two consecutive games, he exceeded this line, accumulating 22 total targets. The Texans' defense has struggled to contain tight end. Houston's defense has given up the second-most receptions and third-most receiving yards per game to the position. In Week 16, Njoku's positive momentum should continue.
Moody: Chuba Hubbard OVER 16.5 rushing attempts. To protect rookie quarterback Bryce Young, the Panthers are committed to the running game. Carolina's also committed to Hubbard as their lead back. He's had 22 or more rushing attempts in three consecutive games. The Packers have allowed 152.0 rushing yards per game over the past three games, which is the fourth most in the league.
Marks: Bills over 27.5 total points. This Bills' offense is rolling! The Chargers' defense does not have the players up front to stop the newly found rushing attack. The Bills scored 31 plus points in three of their last four since firing their OC, and are sporting the third best red zone offense.
Marks: Raheem Mostert, OVER 57.5 total rushing yards (-115). The Cowboys' struggle against a run zone blocking scheme, which the Dolphins utilize -- very similar to the 49ers. Dallas allows over 5 yards per carry, and with the Dolphins' commitment to the run, along with Mostert's work volume -- this over could hit by the half.
Moody: DJ Moore OVER 63.5 receiving yards. There has been a lot of success for wide receivers against the Cardinals and Moore should continue that trend. He's surpassed 63.5 receiving yards in three of his past four games. Moore has also had eight or more targets in five consecutive games. This matchup has a narrow spread, which implies a competitive game that bodes well for Moore as it relates to this prop.