The Western Conference got the play-in tournament started last night, and the East's tips off tonight on ESPN with two very interesting matchups. The Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat are both getting buzz as potential contenders for deep playoff runs from the play-in, while the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks are flying under the radar but match up well with each other. Let's dig deeper into both games to identify some opportunities for players or teams to outproduce expectations.
Joel Embiid over 29.5 points (-130). Embiid was on pace to join Wilt Chamberlain as the only players to average more than a point per minute for an entire season, posting 35.4 PPG in 34.0 MPG before getting injured Jan. 30. When he returned from his long injury layoff, Embiid managed "only" 26.5 PPG in 31.0 MPG -- for his first two games. He has kicked into gear since, averaging 33.0 PPG in 30.3 MPG in his past three games, scoring at least 30 in all three. He faces Bam Adebayo and a tough Heat defense Wednesday, but I look for Embiid to play big minutes (he averaged 34.5 MPG in his last two regular-season games) and put a big number on the board.
Tyrese Maxey over 1.5 first quarter assists (Even). Maxey has gone over this line in 65% of his past 20 games with Embiid in the lineup. The Heat rank 23rd in assists allowed per game to point guards, putting Maxey in a good spot to clear this line. -- Eric Moody
Hawks at Bulls under 222.5 points (-110).
According to ESPN Stats & Info, "unders" were 13-6 in NBA play-in games entering this season and 10-2 in the past two postseasons. Both Western Conference games went under Tuesday. And after two high-scoring early-season matchups, the Heat and Bulls combined for only 214 points in their most recent matchup in April. On Wednesday, in a postseason scenario where defense and physicality are more encouraged and pressure makes shooting more difficult, I see this game going under as well. BPI projects this game to be 217.8 points, well under the current line.
Trae Young over 13.5 assists and rebounds (-130). Young has exceeded this number in two of his past three games since returning from injury and eclipsed this line in two games against the Bulls this season. He averaged 18.2 potential assists and 5.7 rebounds per game this season. This is a great spot for Young. -- Moody
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers
NBA play-in - East - 7th place vs 8th place
7 p.m. Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Records (Against the Spread)
Heat: 46-36 (40-40-2)
76ers: 47-35 (48-34-0)
Line: 76ers (-5.5) Total: 207.5
Money Line: Heat (+180), 76ers (-215)
BPI Projection: 76ers by 4.2, straight up 64%, 201.2 total points.
Injury Report:
Heat: Duncan Robinson, (GTD - Back); Terry Rozier, (OUT - Neck); Josh Richardson, (OUT - Shoulder)
76ers: Joel Embiid, (GTD - Knee); KJ Martin, (GTD - Toe); Robert Covington, (OUT - Knee)
Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls
NBA play-in - East - 9th place vs 10th place
9:30 p.m. United Center, Chicago
Records (Against the Spread)
Hawks: 36-46 (29-53-0)
Bulls: 39-43 (41-40-1)
Line: Bulls (-3.5) Total: 222.5
Money Line: Hawks (+125), Bulls (-145)
BPI Projection: Bulls by 3.2, straight up 60%, 217.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Hawks: Jalen Johnson, (OUT - Ankle); Onyeka Okongwu, (OUT - Toe); Seth Lundy, (OUT - Ankle); Saddiq Bey, (OUT - Knee)
Bulls: Andre Drummond, (GTD - Ankle); Ayo Dosunmu, (GTD - Quadriceps); Julian Phillips, (OUT - Foot); Lonzo Ball, (OUT - Knee); Onuralp Bitim, (OUT - Eye); Patrick Williams, (OUT - Foot); Zach LaVine, (OUT - Foot)