Heisman Trophy hopeful Jalen Milroe (12-1) and the No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide narrowly avoided another upset loss last week at home and now hit the road to take on the No.11 Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+).
The Crimson Tide, who hung on to beat South Carolina last week 27-25, enter as 3-point favorites in an SEC battle between two 5-1 teams. Tennessee is coming off a 23-17 win over Florida but dipped three spots in the AP rankings.
Alabama is tied with Georgia for the second-best odds to win the conference at +450, trailing only Texas, and Tennessee is 20-1. The Tide are -450 to reach the College Football Playoff, while Tennessee sits at +115.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
The lines
Spread: Alabama -3
Moneyline: Alabama -150, Tennessee +130
Over/under: 56.5 (O-105/U-115)
First-half spread: Alabama -1.5 (-110), Tennessee +1.5 (-110)
First-half moneyline: Alabama (-150), Tennessee (+120)
First-half total points: O/U 27.5 points (-120/+100)
Pamela Maldonado's pick: Alabama -3
Cole Cubelic and Roman Harper preview the ranked matchup of the No. 11 Vols and No. 7 Tide after both of their struggles the past two games despite a hot start.
Tennessee has not quite lived up to its early-season hype. After a 3-0 start, with a win over an FCS team, an NC State squad that is now 3-4 and winless Kent State (0-6), the Volunteers faced a dose of reality when SEC play began. They have responded by scoring 25 or fewer points in three straight conference games, failing to reach 20 points in regulation in their past two.
Freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava has struggled, averaging just 174 passing yards in those three games while throwing only one touchdown pass and taking 10 sacks. The lack of production stems from his decision-making under pressure. Iamaleava tends to hold the ball too long, leading to sacks, turnovers, late throws and missed opportunities. His inconsistency is evident in his midrange passing (10-19 yards), where he has completed just 48% of his passes. Let's not forget though that Iamaleava is a freshman with limited collegiate starting experience. The offense has had to pare down its playbook, particularly in attacking the middle of the field, due to his inconsistency. Progression is possible, but it's unlikely to come against the Crimson Tide.
Alabama's defense is primed to exploit the Tennessee QB's weaknesses. Three of its highest-graded defenders (and five of their top seven) are on the defensive front. Quandarrius Robinson (seven tackles for loss, four sacks) has been a game-wrecker along the defensive line. Given Iamaleava's SEC struggles early on and his tendency to hold the ball, Alabama's pass rush could be devastating.
Iamaleava's statistics are concerning: 4.7 YPA when under pressure, three turnover-worthy plays when not blitzed and two interceptions when kept clean. That vulnerability plays right into the Crimson Tide's hands, allowing them to create disruption with their front four while dropping more defenders into coverage. Although Alabama's secondary ranks 44th in EPA per pass, they could capitalize on Iamaleava's mistakes.
Expect Alabama to employ a multifaceted strategy in which it generates pressure with its front four, mixing coverages to confuse Iamaleava, even in clean pockets, and focus on run defense (ranked eighth by PFF) to force Tennessee into passing situations.
Overall, this matchup heavily favors Alabama's defense. Unless Iamaleava's decision-making and poise under pressure dramatically improve, the Tide look well-positioned to dominate this matchup and cover the spread.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
The Vols are 6-14 ATS as a home underdog since 2015, the worst record of any Power 4 team, while Alabama has a 13-5 ATS record against Tennessee since 2006, their best ATS record vs. any opponent they've played at least five times.
Tennessee is 9-26-1 ATS against top-10 teams since 2010, the second-worst mark in FBS over span (minimum 15 games).
The Volunteers are 4-12 ATS as an underdog since 2020, also the second worst in FBS over that span (min. 10 games).
Tennessee is 6-14 ATS as a home underdog since 2015, worst among Power 4 teams (min. 10 games).
This will be Alabama's 27th game as a road favorite against a ranked team since 2010 (no other team has more than 14). The Tide are 11-15 ATS in those games.
Alabama is 13-5 ATS vs. Tennessee since 2006, its best record against any team over span (min. 5 games).
The Tide have lost two straight ATS. A third straight would tie their longest ATS losing streak over the last 15 seasons.
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