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Betting Georgia at Texas: No. 1 Longhorns take care of business

Quintrevion Wisner is one of three Texas running backs with over 220 rushing yards. Andrew Dieb/Imagn Images

The new-look SEC delivers a tantalizing matchup of top-5 teams Saturday when the No. 1 Texas Longhorns host the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs in Austin.

The undefeated Longhorns are coming off a 35-3 shellacking of Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. Meanwhile, Georgia has won two straight after suffering its lone loss to Alabama.

Both teams are in prime position to earn spots in the newly formatted 12-team College Football Playoff, with Texas at -2000 and Georgia at -450 to make the field. Texas is in the driver's seat in the SEC and is the favorite to win the conference (+125). Georgia isn't far behind, tied with Alabama as the second choice at +450.

Of course, when it comes to the SEC, the national championship is always the objective, and it's no surprise that top-ranked Texas is the favorite (+360). Georgia (+475) comes in as the third choice behind No. 4 Ohio State (+425).

The Longhorns and Bulldogs also boast Heisman Trophy contenders at quarterback, with Georgia's Carson Beck (15-1) and Texas' Quinn Ewers (16-1) both among the top eight choices.

The Longhorns are favored by 5 points on Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+.

Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET


The lines

Spread: Texas -5
Moneyline: Texas -210, Georgia +175
Over/under: 56.5 (-105/-115)

First-half spread: Texas -3.5 (+100), Georgia +3.5 (-120)
First-half moneyline: Texas (-180), Georgia (+140)
First-half total points: O/U 27.5 points (-110/-110)


Pamela Maldonado's pick: Texas -3.5 (currently -5)

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What to watch for in No. 5 Georgia at No. 1 Texas

Read & React co-hosts Cole Cubelic and Roman Harper break down what makes Texas so tough to defend and what Georgia needs to make sure it contains on defense.

Texas is the most complete team in the nation, displaying offensive firepower, passing efficiency and defensive dominance. The Longhorns are averaging 43 points and 495 total yards per game, showcasing a balanced offense that doesn't rely on individual stars but rather a team-oriented approach, thanks to impressive depth across the roster.

The Texas backfield is a potent mix of diverse talents. Quintrevion Wisner is an all-purpose threat, while Jaydon Blue's game-changing speed and agility generate explosive plays. Jerrick Gibson has shown a knack for finding the end zone, scoring in three out of four games this season. All three backs contribute in the passing game, adding versatility that presents even more challenges for defenses.

Texas' multifaceted ground attack (37th in rushing success rate) also creates opportunities in the passing game, where the Longhorns rank 20th in passing offense success rate, thanks in part to exceptional pass protection, Texas leads the nation with a remarkable 93.5 pass-blocking grade from PFF, nearly six points higher than the second-best team (Wisconsin, 87.6). All five starters on the offensive line rank within the top 20 at their positions as pass-blockers.

The receiving corps is equally as impressive, featuring versatility, big-play ability and depth that allows the ball to be spread around effectively. Seven different players have over 100 receiving yards, and eight receivers have combined for 18 touchdowns through six games (tied for fourth most). This offense is attacking defenses from all sides.

Meanwhile, Georgia's defense has shown some vulnerability. Against Kentucky in their third game of the season, the Bulldogs allowed the Wildcats to run 45 times for 170 yards, the most rushing yardage they had surrendered since Georgia Tech put 205 on them in Week 12 last season. They also had 16 missed tackles; they didn't have double-digit missed tackles in any game last year.

The secondary has also shown holes, particularly against elite passing attacks. Alabama's Jalen Milroe exploited the back end, playing like a master chef crafting a gourmet meal in record time, everything executed with precision, efficiency and flair. He completed 18 of 21 passes for 305 yards and three touchdowns in just one half. Mississippi State also managed to pass for over 300 yards against the Bulldogs.

Texas can absolutely feast on its way to its first 7-0 start under coach Steve Sarkisian. Even though the line has moved from -3.5 to -5, I still like it.

Betting trends

Courtesy ESPN Research

  • Georgia is in line to be an underdog for the first time since 2021 in what would end a streak of 49 games as a betting favorite. Texas has the next-longest active streak at 18 games.

  • Texas has six straight cover losses when favored versus a top-5 opponent, the longest active streak in FBS.

  • Georgia is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog with four outright wins.

  • This will be Georgia's 10th game against a top-5 team since 2021 (most in FBS); The Bulldogs are 6-3 ATS in those games, the best record among teams with five-plus such games.

  • Texas is 1-7 ATS since the FBS/FCS split as a favorite against top-5 teams, the worst mark in FBS (minimum five games)

  • Texas has six straight ATS losses as a favorite against top-5 teams, the longest active losing streak in FBS.

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