What a way to renew a rivalry! A spot in the SEC championship game is on the line when the No. 3 Texas Longhorns face the No. 20 Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field on Saturday night in College Station, with the ESPN Gameday crew on hand.
The Longhorns and Aggies have not met since 2011. The Lone Star Showdown had been played annually from 1915 until 2011, when Texas A&M left the Big 12 to join the SEC for the 2012-13 season. This is Texas' first year in the conference.
UT, the only one-loss team in the SEC, beat visiting Kentucky 31-14 last Saturday for its fourth straight victory since dropping a home game vs. the Georgia Bulldogs, the team that awaits this week's winner. No. 7 Georgia is -145 to win the conference, while Texas is +175.
Meanwhile, A&M (+800 to win the SEC) is coming off a wild 43-41 four-OT loss at Auburn.
Texas (+450 to win the national championship) leads the all-time series with Texas A&M (+20000) 76-37-5.
Saturday's game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
The lines
Spread: Texas -6
Moneyline: Texas -215, Texas A&M +180
Over/under: 48.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
First-half spread: Texas -3.5 (Even), A&M +3.5 (+120)
First-half moneyline: Texas -190, A&M +150
First-half total points: 23.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Matchup predictor (by ESPN analytics): Texas 77.3% chance to win
Steve Sarkisian says the Aggies' elite defensive front is the strength of their team as he explains all the challenges they pose for the Longhorns with the SEC title game on the line.
Maldonado's pick: Texas A&M +6
Texas A&M head coach Mike Elko had a slip of the tongue revealing that Texas is indeed on the Aggies' minds, accidentally showing that the coaching staff has likely been preparing for this matchup for some time.
The Aggies, and the 12th Man, are prepped.
A&M's offense has been firing on all cylinders. Against Auburn last Saturday, the Aggies amassed a whopping 464 yards of total offense, marking the fifth game this season they've surpassed the 450-yard mark. Most impressive is their red zone efficiency. The Aggies were flawless against the Tigers, converting all five of their red zone opportunities into points, with four resulting in touchdowns. This clinical finishing prowess could prove decisive as 6-point underdogs to Texas this week.
Plus, the Aggies have shown they can weather storms and strike back with vengeance. After falling behind 21-0 to Auburn, A&M rallied with three unanswered touchdowns, including a spectacular 73-yard TD pass to Noah Thomas in the third quarter to tie the game. Such big-play capability could be the X-factor against a Texas team that has faced a relatively easy schedule of passing offenses.
On the other side of the ball, A&M's defense has been nothing short of stellar, particularly in crucial moments. Their performance against LSU's high-powered offense at the end of October was a lesson in second-half adjustments and clutch plays. And their third-down defense has been especially suffocating, allowing a 33% conversion this season, 15th-best in the nation. This could spell trouble for a Texas offense that struggled mightily on third downs against Georgia, converting just two of 15 attempts.
The Longhorns last stepped foot into College Station in 2011. Now, I'm not one to quantify home-field advantage. However, the immense home-field advantage A&M enjoys at Kyle Field, this moment, the deafening roar of over 100,000 fans... it could rattle a Texas team that has shown vulnerability to tougher competition, leading to mental errors from quarterback Quinn Ewers, who is dealing with an ankle injury following the Week 13 win over Kentucky.
After two losses in three games, belief in the Aggies has dissipated. I say the stage is set for an Aggie upset (+195), sending shockwaves through the college football world with a statement win over their longtime rivals.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
Texas A&M is 22-11 ATS vs. top-five teams over the last 30 seasons, second-best in FBS over that span (min. 15 games).
Texas A&M is 5-2 ATS vs. Texas over the last 20 seasons.
The Aggies are 0-3 ATS in their last three games. They haven't gone on a four-game ATS losing streak within a season since 2016 (seven ATS losses in a row).
Texas is 8-16 ATS as a favorite vs. ranked opponents since 2010, worst in FBS (min. 15 games).
This will be Texas' third time as a road favorite against a ranked team this season, most of any team (1-1 ATS previously).
This is the 16th game this season where a ranked team is a home underdog; the under is 11-4 in the previous games.
After last week's results, the top four favorites to win the CFP all became bigger favorites; Ohio State (+300 to +260), Oregon (+450 to +375), Georgia (+500 to +375) and Texas (+500 to +450).
Quinn Ewers has 23 passing touchdowns this season, exceeding his total from last season (22). Ewers also has 60 career passing touchdowns, tied with Major Applewhite for third-most in Texas history.
Ewers has multiple passing touchdowns in five straight games, the longest streak of his career and the longest streak within a season by a Texas player since Sam Ehlinger in 2019 (also five). The last Texas QB to throw for multiple passing TDs in six or more consecutive games was Colt McCoy in 2008 (seven).
Texas has held opponents to 12.1 points per game this season, third-fewest in FBS, trailing Notre Dame and Ohio State. The Longhorns also lead FBS in yards per play allowed and yards per pass attempt allowed.
After starting the season 5-0 in conference play, Texas A&M has lost its last two SEC games. The Aggies allowed at least 40 points in both defeats. The last time Texas A&M gave up 40+ points in three straight conference games was in 2008.
Texas A&M has played in a conference championship game twice, but neither came in the SEC. The Aggies played in the Big 12 Conference championship game in 1997 and 1998.
Georgia beat Texas earlier this season in Austin but would be the underdog in a rematch, according to ESPN Analytics (41% chance to win). The Bulldogs would be a prohibitive favorite against Texas A&M (72% chance to win).
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