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AFCON 2025 - Six reasons why Morocco will win (Hakimi), and four reasons they won't (also Hakimi)

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Sam Ogunleye and Ed Dove discuss the strength of Morocco's squad as well as the potential to defeat group favourites Brazil. (1:13)

Has there ever been an Africa Cup of Nations where the title has appeared as destined to end up in the hands of the host nation as this year, where Morocco are overwhelming favourites to clinch the grandest prize in the continent's sport?

African football feels like it is embarking on an inexorable procession towards the eventual crowning of the Atlas Lions on January 18, to the point where any failure might lead to state of national mourning akin to Brazil's infamous national depression after losing the 1950 World Cup 'final' at home to Uruguay.

The deck appears stacked in Morocco's favour, but what are the genuine reasons to believe that this is the Atlas Lions' title to lose, and what could bring the whole charabanc crashing down over the next month?

Why they will: The squad

If talent alone wins tournaments, then we ought to give Morocco the title right now. From top to bottom, their squad is the strongest in the continent, with options aplenty in almost every position, and also a richness and diversity of skillsets to allow Walid Regragui to shuffle his options and tailor his approach to each opponent.

Goalkeeper Yacine Bounou is arguably Africa's finest, while the central defensive options are miserly and grizzled.

In midfield, they're one of the few sides who have players who can genuinely take control of a contest, dominate possession, and impose their offensive intentions, not least World Cup revelation Azzedine Ounahi.

African Footballer of the Year Achraf Hakimi is one of several strong and well-rounded fullback options, while they boast clear goal threats in Youssef En-Nesyri and Ayoub Al-Kaabi, supported by Brahim Díaz, Africa's top scorer in qualifying.

Most excitingly, Regragui has integrated in plenty of new talent since the Qatar run in 2022, with the likes of Hamza Igamane, Ismael Saibari, Eliesse Ben Seghir, Ilias Akhomach, Oussama Targhalline and Bilal El Khannouss all vying for playing time and offering ample strength in depth.

Why they will: The experience

Plenty of the team were present for the remarkable World Cup semifinal showing three years ago, which fuelled belief in the national team, and accelerated the sentiment that Morocco would soon conquer the continent.

"In 2022, we said it's possible [to win titles], and we began to grow in confidence," Regragui told ESPN. "Today there are no Moroccans who will say we cannot win this Afcon, but five years ago, there were.

"If someone had said before that we would bring home the World Cup, they'd say you were mad, but now the Moroccans believe in our dreams."

Beyond that tournament, plenty of this side were already present for the 2021 and 2023 editions, while the considerable experience at the top end of the European game should ensure the Atlas Lions have a composure and a self-belief that few of their rivals can match.

There should be no AFCON surprises for a collective who have experienced their fair share of tournament highs and lows.

Why they will: Their form

It didn't help Algeria much in 2019, but Morocco are enjoying a remarkable world-record 18-match winning streak, establishing themselves as the in-form team in world football.

It's taken them to the cusp of the top 10 in the FIFA World Rankings, and they're bubbling with confidence that they can dispatch any opponent who cross their path.

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Why they will: Home support

Moroccan support is among the most fervent and passionate on the continent, and expect all of that energy and ardour to be piled behind the national side.

While travelling supporters aren't typically voluminous at the Nations Cup, given the large distances and economic realities of the continent, the Atlas Lions will benefit from the figurative 'twelfth man' during the course of the competition, and this backing should well represent a tangible advantage over the coming month.

Similarly, as tournament hosts, they will benefit from all the advantages of familiarity, logistics and goodwill that comes when an entire society wants to take part in a major celebration, while AFCON organisers have - in tournaments gone by - not been above making life difficult for other competing teams in order to favour the hosts.

"It's a special AFCON, we're at home," Hakimi told ESPN. "We're with our country, with our family, with all Moroccans behind us. It's special for all of us.

"This gives us extra motivation to play, to defend our country, and to give everything for this shirt."

The cosy relationship between CAF and the Moroccan Football Association is unlikely to hurt the North Africans either as they seek to end their 50-year wait.

Why they will: The head coach

Regragui is a genuine asset for Morocco, contributing much to the team's tactical evolution and personality since taking the reins in 2022.

Under his guidance, the Atlas Lions have climbed in the FIFA World Rankings, while he's developed a playing style and a tactical approach that captures the values of Moroccan football while also exploiting the talent available.

There have been controversies and disagreements, but they've largely been dealt with without hurting the collective, and the decision to do without Hakim Ziyech was testament to the head coach's clear thinking and courageous decision-making.

His relaxed and friendly approach - underpinned by steely determination - has developed the unity of the collective, with Morocco confident and not lacking self-belief, but always maintaining their feet on the ground.

The family atmosphere he's fostered has also been evident in the past when the players have brought their mothers into the fold and ensured the women who forged them were lauded by the Morocco supporters.

His upbringing in Europe - he was raised in the south of Paris - has helped him to generate a connection with the squad's many dual nationals, while his social skills have helped make the national team an appealing prospect.

"We are a real team, a real squad, where everyone fights for each other and that's all down to him," playmaker Sofiane Boufal told ESPN ahead of the 2022 World Cup.

Why they will: Achraf Hakimi

In Hakimi, Morocco boast the top African player in the world today, having been voted as CAF's African Footballer of the Year last month.

Hakimi was a worthy winner, having enjoyed a trophy-laden season with Paris Saint-Germain, both in terms of his defensive work and his offensive contribution.

The adventurous right-sider chipped in with goal contributions in all of the Champions League quarterfinal, semifinal and final - the first African player to do so and going on to win the title - while he also netted in the French Cup final against Stade de Reims.

He's a big game player, a proven difference-maker and, now in his prime years, has the quality to take the Nations Cup by storm.

Why they won't: Achraf Hakimi

He may be the world's finest -- or thereabouts -- in his position, but Hakimi arrives at the tournament in less-than-favourable conditions having not played for club or country since November 11, when he suffered injury in a Champions League game against Bayern Munich.

While Hakimi was initially felled by Luis Díaz, before reeling in pain, it appeared as though his AFCON was in jeopardy, while an initial diagnosis of a severely sprained left ankle hardly augured well for his tournament prospects.

According to Regragui, however, Hakimi has given everything over the last five weeks in order to be fit for the tournament, and will have a major role to play for the Atlas Lions on home soil.

Despite the optimism in Saturday's press conference ahead of the opener, it remains to be seen when Hakimi will take to the field, but surely it will take a while for him to return to match sharpness and to shake off any ring rust in order to get back to his best.

An AFCON tournament proper isn't the best environment in which to steadily work through a return to fitness, while the concern that Hakimi may have been rushed back too soon could also lead to a relapse.

Why they won't: The weight of history

This isn't the first time that Morocco have been heavily fancied heading into a Nations Cup, with the Atlas Lions heavily fancied across the last few tournaments -- albeit not to the degree they are here on home soil.

Under Herve Renard and Vahid Halilhodzic, the team boasted similarly rich strength in depth, and started tournaments strongly, only to come unstuck at crucial moments of the campaign.

The team that reached the World Cup semifinals were unceremoniously eliminated by South Africa last year, while the fine Moroccan generations of the late 80s and late 90s weren't able to get their hands on the continent's top prize.

Indeed, Morocco haven't won the title since 1976, with many years of hurt during the intervening years, and they still have to overcome the psychological hurdle of 'choking' at critical moments.

Some may say that the strongest team heading into the tournament very rarely wins it either -- look at the Ivory Coast's Golden Generation, for example, or Senegal last time around -- and Morocco must be cautious about this trend repeating itself.

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Why they won't: The pressure, the emotions

Both Regragui and Hakimi acknowledge the dangers of Morocco getting carried away by the emotions of a tournament on home soil, and of the supporters' fervour negatively interfering with their performance.

Certainly, it's a concern that the Atlas Lions will need to guard against over the coming weeks.

"We're favourites and we don't hide from that," said Regragui, "we can't tell you we're not, but the hardest thing, the country who will have the most difficulty bringing home the cup is Morocco.

"Why is there so much pressure? Because if we don't win [the title], we'll say that we've lost. There can be accidents, as we saw in the Ivory Coast, anything can happen, but we must control our emotions.

"The players must be calm, with certainty about ourselves, always with humility and with respect for the opposition."

Captain Hakimi also urged his teammates to play the opponents, not the occasion.

"We know what we need to do, we must control our emotions," he noted. "We're at home, the players know what we must do, we have to [focus on] playing with the ball."

Why they won't: The opposition

While there's no other team in the tournament as 'complete' as Morocco, there are plenty of would-be contenders in there, several of whom will be confident after securing World Cup qualification, or others who will have a point to prove after missing out.

Whether it's fellow north Africans Algeria, with emerging goal sensation Mohamed Amoura, or Egypt, with Mohamed Salah aiming to let his football do the talking after recent controversies at Liverpool, whether its Nigeria or Senegal, with their overflowing attacking rosters, whether its dark horses the Democratic Republic of Congo or even reigning champions Ivory Coast, the Atlas Lions will have to run the gauntlet and overcome plenty of pitfalls -- and multi-talented sides -- if they're to go all the way.