F1 needs a Ferrari repeat in China

Formula One was "broken" in Melbourne, but then "revitalised" in Malaysia. Reactions to the first two races of the season have been largely hyperbolic but there's no denying Ferrari's win in Sepang was the shot in the arm the sport needed after almost total Mercedes dominance since the start of 2014. The circus heads to China this weekend with a genuine sense of intrigue and excitement it's been lacking at the front, beyond the inter-team battle at Mercedes last season. The return to cooler temperatures may well mean a return to business as usual but Mercedes' rivals can smell blood - even if it is only a few drops. F1 needs that wound to keep bleeding in Shanghai for the sake of the season.

In form

Ferrari returned to the top step in Malaysia to end nearly two years without a win. One victory does not automatically mean Ferrari is back in the hunt (see talking points below) but it was just reward for the remarkable turnaround orchestrated by team boss Maurizio Arrivabene and his technical chief James Allison since last year. It is also worth noting Sebastian Vettel claimed career victory number 40, putting him one away from equalling none other than the late Ayrton Senna's career tally.

Out of form

How Red Bull must miss 2014. Yes, they still had an uncompetitive Renault power unit but by the third race of the season they had already scored a podium and were beating sister team Toro Rosso. Neither of those are true now and the team spent Malaysia playing damage control with its Renault relationship. Proof that perspective and hindsight are wonderful things. Honourable mention must also go to McLaren, which recorded a double DNF after being the slowest team to complete qualifying.

One to watch

If there were points given for bad luck this season, Kimi Raikkonen would be waltzing the 2015 championship, at least in the Ferrari garage. When not recovering from first corner contact in Melbourne or a botched qualifying and early puncture in Malaysia, Raikkonen has at least matched if not bettered Sebastian Vettel's lap times over long stints. Had things gone his way it could well have been the Finn, not Vettel, who won in Malaysia. In Mercedes' press release before this weekend, Nico Rosberg said his focus was on Lewis Hamilton and "my compatriot in the red car" - namely Vettel, with no mention of Raikkonen. Mercedes - and Vettel for that matter - write off the revitalised Finn at their peril.

Talking points

Hoping for deja vu

Sebastian Vettel's win in Malaysia was the perfect tonic for F1 after Mercedes romped to a dominant one-two in Australia. But how much of it was down to the searing heat of Sepang and Mercedes' subsequent inability to manage their tyres as well as Ferrari will become apparent in China. There is no doubting Ferrari has made a huge leap forward but the "wake-up call", as it was called by Toto Wolff, will have revitalised and redoubled the efforts of Mercedes. The Brackley outfit seems only too happy to have some genuine competition and what better challenge than from the sport's most popular team with a success-starved fan base.

But some realistic thinking is needed. Despite Kimi Raikkonen's belief Ferrari can be quick in any conditions, it is important to remember the Scuderia finished some 35 seconds down on Mercedes in the chillier conditions in Melbourne. Add to that technical director James Allison's statement directly after the grand prix, that "we will have our work cut out in China to do anything like as impressive a job as we have done here". The cooling package on the team's innovative SF15-T is one of its strong points, allowing it to operate in high temperatures without placing too much stress on the power unit. That strength is negated slightly in the cooler confines of Shanghai.

For the sake of F1, another close race is exactly what 2015 needs but we may have to wait until we return to warmer climates to see a red car back at the front.

Sleepwalking into another crisis?

"How do we differentiate ourselves? How do we create that connection with the viewer and say 'You need to watch us' and keep them excited so that when one race is over they watch the next one in 10 days?" Sauber team principal, Monisha Kaltenborn

Those are the wise words of Monisha Kaltenborn, who thinks F1 has lost direction. That connection with the viewer is crucial in an age when sport saturates our TV screens. How can F1 start to gain back fans lost over the last few years? A good start would be to try and remedy some of the fundamental flaws which continue to plague the sport to its own detriment.

One of the points Kaltenborn raised was the failure to do anything about the unequal revenue shares in F1. A good way to make an issue go away is to resolve it; something F1 seems pathologically incapable of doing. The indecision from the Strategy Group relating to real, concrete change helps no-one except the teams in the Strategy Group themselves. It's important to have some perspective, of course; one good race (Malaysia) does not mean the sport is fixed, just like one bad race (Australia) does not mean it is broken. But this is a sport which lost the German Grand Prix from the calendar without the powers-that-be batting an eyelid. It is a sport which seems unmoved by the plight of smaller teams. It is inescapable that something at the root of F1 is rotten and the longer it is ignored, the longer it will fester.

Vital weeks for Honda and Renault

The success of Ferrari has magnified the failings of Renault, and highlighted the magnitude of the task facing Honda. Both engine manufacturers have some critical races ahead. For Renault, they fought back admirably after being thrown under the bus by Red Bull - highlighting many of the failings lie on the aerodynamic side. The French manufacturer has faced up to criticism and held its hands up to admit it has not done the job it could - or should - have done over the winter. With its future in F1 still uncertain the progress Renault can or cannot make at the next few races, and in turn what impact that has on the dynamic with Milton Keynes, will surely have a vital role in that decision.

Honda, meanwhile, is making baby steps up a high mountain. The mindset in both Woking and Sakura is of a marathon and not a sprint - the championship this season was never the aim. The team will start turning up its engine at the coming races but Jenson Button has already warned that could lead to a snowball effect on performance. Patience is going to be key for McLaren until the European season as it quietly assesses its gains. Fernando Alonso won't have seen enough from Ferrari to regret his move just yet but the onus is now on Honda to show enough progress over the next races to prove to the Spaniard he made the right decision when he jumped ship last year.

Betting

Lewis Hamilton remains the bookies favourite to win at 4/6. Ferrari pair Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen have odds of 9/2 and 11/1 respectively. There are odds of 8/1 for McLaren to get both cars into the points.

Facts and figures

• Last year's race was cut short by two laps when the chequered flag was mistakenly waved early, though it had no bearing on the top ten or Lewis Hamilton's victory.

• Though Hamilton (three) and Fernando Alonso (two) have multiple victories in Shanghai, no driver has claimed back-to-back wins.

• The Shanghai circuit is shaped like the Chinese character 'Shang' - meaning 'high' or 'above'.

• Pirelli will bring the soft and medium compounds to this race.

Weather

It looks set to be cloudier and cooler in China than it was in Malaysia. That could be crucial in determining the outcome of the race, with highs of 22C predicted on Sunday. While rain played a key part in Malaysia qualifying the chances of it having a bearing on this weekend's action currently sits at 20%.

ESPN prediction

There's a split at ESPN on this one. Deputy editor Laurence Edmondson thinks Nico Rosberg will turn around his form with a much-needed victory, while assistant editor Nate Saunders says world champion Lewis Hamilton will return to winning ways.