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Monaco Grand Prix preview: Mercedes looks to return to normality

Focus on... Mercedes

Mercedes comes to Monaco looking to return to normality. Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton's collision in Barcelona was the catalyst for the crowning of F1's youngest race winner, Max Verstappen, in one of the most remarkable results in recent memory but, for the word champions, will have been an uncomfortable reminder of the pair's uneasy past. That storyline ironically had its first major flashpoint in Monte Carlo two years ago, when Rosberg controversially stopped in qualifying and prevented Hamilton completing what the British driver believed was a lap good enough for pole at a circuit where pole position is king.

In Spain the team seemed to manage the immediate fallout very well but it will arrive in Monte Carlo facing questions, not just about the team dynamic post-Spain but about the emerging threat of Red Bull, which will get the first taste of Renault's upgraded engine this weekend. Add to that the recent Italian media reports of Rosberg flirting with Ferrari over a 2017 drive and the stage is set for a fascinating weekend -- and that's all before the pair resume championship hostilities on the circuit.

Mercedes still looks like a sensible bet for the world championship this season but it will be wary of leaving its rivals any more open goals -- Red Bull's three wins in 2014 all came with Mercedes dropping the ball in some way. Red Bull and Renault have come a long way since then and the team's performance in Barcelona's final sector suggested it will be well and truly in the mix again this weekend. Not only that but, in Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo, the team now has what it thinks is the best driver pairing on the grid and will surely be snapping at the heels of the two Silver Arrows cars in case of any more drama up front.

In need of a podium

The expectations around Ferrari at the moment are huge. President Sergio Marchionne has made no secret of that in recent weeks and many thought the team would have won by now. Not only has it not won a race, but Red Bull has, capitalising on the Mercedes on collision to win in Spain ahead of the Prancing Horse.

While it came into the season with eyes firmly on Mercedes, Red Bull's win in Spain and the highly-anticipated Renault upgrade will force the Italian team to be casting one eye over its shoulder from here on in. A return to the top step feels very overdue; if Ferrari wants to have anything like a genuine chance of a championship in 2016 it needs to start winning soon.

In need of points

While Haas has 22 points next to its name, none are in the column of Esteban Gutierrez -- a top ten finish in Monaco, a place he made what he calls "the worst mistake" of his career in 2014 when he lost a certain points finish, would be timely. Nico Hulkenberg has not scored a point since the opening round in Australia and will be hoping to help Force India's goal of keeping sight with the teams immediately in front.

But of most interest this weekend is McLaren. The team has scored a handful of points but lost a good few more through Fernando Alonso's retirement in front of his home crowd in Spain. The team's aerodynamic strength suggests a strong Monaco result is on the cards if it can have a strong weekend but the lingering threat of Honda unreliability could scupper those hopes. Coming away with anything less than both cars in the points will be a disappointment given Alonso's high praise of the MP4-30.

Weather

The weekend looks fairly standard until Sunday, with sunny weather forecast right through until Saturday evening. That could all change in a big way for the grand prix, with scattered thunderstorms expected around the principality in time for the race on Sunday afternoon. A wet race on F1's toughest and most punishing circuit? Bring it on!

Prediction

Lewis Hamilton was robbed of a nailed-on victory at last year's race due to a miscalculation from the Mercedes pit wall. Given his qualifying performances against Nico Rosberg this year (3-0 in Q3) and the importance of pole in Monte Carlo, ESPN is backing Hamilton to end his recent victory drought claim an overdue second win at the principality.

Betting

Lewis Hamilton is the bookies' favourite at 6/4 to win his first race of 2016. Behind Mercedes, Daniel Ricciardo (9/1) and Max Verstappen (15/2) are being backed to take the fight to Mercedes, with the bookies showing less love for Ferrari than at previous weekends. Fernando Alonso is 2/1 to land his McLaren in the top six come Sunday while Verstappen is being backed to be the fastest non-Mercedes in qualifying at 8/1.

A lap with... Daniil Kvyat

"When I think of Monaco I always remember the first time I drove there in a Formula 1 car and went at full speed... The first lap was a bit scary, as it's so narrow! Racing in Monaco is therefore always a challenge as you are always very close to the walls, especially at Turn 4 and in the final sector, from Turn 13 to 19.

"I enjoy driving at Turns 3 and 4, they are nice and fast. Turn 6 is definitely the slowest corner on track and the braking when arriving at Turn 10 is always challenging. Turns 13 and 14 are the fastest and you need to be brave there! It's a very specific and special track, with such a big history, it always takes your breath away when you drive there. You constantly need to keep your concentration levels to the absolute limit, and this year will be no exception!"

Tyres

Available compounds: soft, super-soft, ultra-soft

Circuit facts courtesy of Pirelli:

• The street circuit offers very little grip and a high degree of track evolution over the weekend.

• Teams use a high-downforce set-up to 'push' the car onto the track as much as possible.

• Wear and degradation is the lowest seen all year, making one-stop strategies possible even on soft compound tyres.

• Tactics need to consider a high probability of the safety car and the difficulty of overtaking.

• With little representative running of the ultrasoft up to now, free practice (on Thursday) is vital.

• Lowest average speed of the year so tyre warm-up is a key skill for maximum performance.