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Fantasy baseball trade watch: How to identify which hot starts are a mirage

Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Guardians has a 2.45 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 29.1 innings, but how long will that last? Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire

Not all slow starts to the baseball season warrant concern, just as not all surprising standouts are assured of maintaining that pace.

Fantasy managers scoff at small sample sizes, such as the ones currently in the books, with only 27 days of action (just 15% of the schedule!) having been played. However, at the same time, we need to take some of the statistical returns seriously as we attempt to improve our teams. It's prime time for "ignore the numbers" advice and chatter, but it's also that time to boost our teams via trade, while debate about the year-to-date stats is near its peak. Small samples or not, some players have seemingly performed well, either from a Player Rater or fantasy point total perspective, yet their profiles show little (and often no) foundation for how they've gotten there. Similarly, as with my past two weeks' columns, some players have seemingly started slow but aren't of major concern, and they might make ideal trade targets in exchange.

You need to identify these fluky hot starters, and trade them right now, while you've still got a chance. Here are five I'd be peddling, based on their likely perceived value today:


Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Guardians: The No. 7 starting pitcher and No. 17 overall player selected on average in ESPN's points-based leagues during the preseason, Bieber seems to be earning his lofty price tag, as the No. 24 starting pitcher with 73 fantasy points and a 14.6 points-per-start average that's right in line with his 15.8 average from 2021. The problem, however, is