Whatever your pitching strategy in fantasy baseball, one thing is clear: You're going to need to unearth some hidden pitching gems if you want to win your league.
Last season, 39 of the 50 most profitable players -- comparing ESPN Player Rater versus average draft position (ADP) returns in this case -- were pitchers. Sixteen of the 28 who also managed a top-100-overall Player Rater finish were pitchers. Clearly the pitching side is the one on which you need to hit a home run (while, of course, not having your pitchers give them up).
One of the reasons for this is the smaller sample sizes on the pitching side, which breed more volatility. Only 57 starting pitchers met the 162-inning qualification minimum for the ERA title, and only 89 relief pitchers worked as many as 60 innings last season. Meanwhile, 140 hitters accumulated the requisite 502 plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, and in addition to that larger sample, those hitters had a lot more control over their batted-ball outcomes.
So how, exactly, does one unearth these pitching gems?
I like to scour the lower tiers of the pitching rankings to identify those who appeared to perform poorly in the most recent season, using traditional rotisserie measures like wins, saves and ERA, but who had good underlying skills, especially their ability to strike hitters out and minimize walks. It's these pitchers who command the strike zone best -- rarely walking batters while also generating a good amount of swings and misses -- who stand the greatest odds of success. Examine predictive stats like FIP and SIERA, not ERA. Look at things like swinging-strike rate. How often does the pitcher get a first-pitch strike, capturing a big advantage by starting off ahead in the count?
In this space, I annually identify individuals who meet minimum statistical baselines exhibiting these skills, and I call them "Kings of Command."
Kings of Command baseline numbers
Pitchers who qualify for inclusion meet each of the following minimum baselines from the 2018 major league season:
Starting pitchers
Total batters faced (TBF): 300 or more
Swinging-strike rate (SwStrk%): 10.5 percent or more
First-pitch strike rate (1stPStrk%): 60.0 percent or more
Command rate (K's per walk or K/BB): 2.50 or more
Relief pitchers
Total batters faced (TBF): 150 or more
Swinging-strike rate (SwStrk%): 12.5 percent or more
First-pitch strike rate (1stPStrk%): 60.0 percent of more
Command rate (K's per walk or K/BB): 2.50 or more
In 2018, only 105 pitchers -- 54 starters and 51 relievers -- met all of these criteria. Included among that group were National League Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom; the Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera relief award winners, Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz; 14 of the 18 pitchers to score Cy Young votes totaling 787 of the 1,020 balloting points (77.2 percent); and 17 of the top 20 pitchers on our 2018 Player Rater.
The following nine pitchers, however, also met these criteria, despite not one garnering anywhere near the same level of attention in fantasy baseball. They compared favorably to the aforementioned group that captured many of the year's headlines, hinting that perhaps one small skills tweak or simply better luck might lead to greater things for them in 2019.
My Kings of Command are listed in alphabetical order, along with their 2018 Player Rater finishes and fantasy point totals (using ESPN's standard scoring system), as well as a brief synopsis of what they could do in order to break through.
Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians
2018 Player Rater: SP108/326th overall 2018 fantasy point total: 223 (SP97)
Why he's on here: Just 23 years old and with 97 days of big-league experience, Bieber already rates among the game's most consistent strike throwers. After his May 31 big league debut last year, he ranked seventh among qualifiers with a 4.7 percent walk rate and ninth with a 67.3 percent strike rate. And in his 70 career appearances (68 of them starts) since turning pro in 2016, he has walked just 42 of 1,566 batters he has faced (2.7 percent). Bieber pours his 92-94 mph fastball, curveball, slider and changeup over the plate with regularity, with his command of the four pitches more than making up for none of them earning an elite scouting grade. As he gains big league experience, he might become even sharper with each of his offerings.
How he could improve: Better fortune on batted balls alone would go a long way towards a Bieber breakthrough, as his .356 BABIP was 17 points higher than any other qualifier from that May 31 date forward last season and six points higher than any pitcher with 100-plus innings spanning the entirety of 2018. Further polish of his curveball and changeup might also help him narrow what was a 104-point wOBA righty/lefty split, as he threw them 15 percent more often against lefties than right-handed hitters and surrendered .316/.362/.547 rates to lefties (using any pitch type).
Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles
2018 Player Rater: SP155/524th overall 2018 fantasy point total: 209 (SP106)
Why he's on here: While we're on the topic of luck, few pitchers experienced as little of it in 2018 as Bundy, the No. 4 overall selection from the 2011 amateur draft, Keith Law's No. 31 prospect overall entering 2014 (after his Tommy John surgery) and the No. 41 starting pitcher on our Player Rater in 2017. While his strikeout rate swelled by nearly 3 full percentage points, to a career-best 24.5 percent, he continued to struggle mightily at keeping the ball in the yard -- his 41 home runs were the most allowed by any pitcher in seven years and tied for 10th-most in the game's history. Bundy especially unraveled as his Orioles advanced their rebuild with several midseason trades, going just 4-of-15 in quality starts with a 7.61 ERA in the team's final 81 games, during which time he ranked among the five "unluckiest" pitchers in baseball with his 61.0 left-on-base percentage, .351 BABIP and 15.8 home run/fly ball percentage.
How he could improve: Recapturing even a hint of fastball velocity would go a long way towards straightening things out, as Bundy's 93.7 mph average heater in 2016 slipped to 92.1 mph in 2017 and then 91.6 mph last season. That'll be a key trait to monitor during Grapefruit League play, but it would also do wonders if he could restore the changeup performance he showed from 2016-17, when he registered a 18.2 percent swinging-strike rate with it (that dropped to 15.3 percent in 2018). That's a key pitch for him against left-handed hitters, and they clobbered him to the tune of .319/.385/.553 rates last season, each by far a career worst.
Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds
2018 Player Rater: SP67/211th overall 2018 fantasy point total: 295 (SP56)
Why he's on here: He was one of last spring's most buzzworthy, up-and-coming starting pitchers after posting a 3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 27.3 percent strikeout rate in 15 big-league starts in 2017, with those making him a borderline top-25 fantasy starting pitcher from the date of his big-league debut forward. But Castillo couldn't maintain the pace in his first full year in the majors in 2018. While his changeup remained one of the game's most effective, generating a third-best-in-baseball (minimum 250 thrown) 26.8 percent swinging-strike rate, his fastball lost a good amount of velocity, dropping from 97.3 mph on average in 2017 to 95.8 mph. Opposing hitters were far more successful elevating the ball and making hard contact against him, mostly explaining his 28 home runs allowed.
How he could improve: Castillo was already showing improvement in the season's final stages, as he was 6-of-10 in quality starts with a 2.51 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 26.6 percent K rate to conclude his season, during which time his average fastball velocity was 96.7 mph. That's the version we want to see on the mound from Day 1 of this season. Castillo would also be helped by keeping the ball down as he did in 2017 as well as in September of last season, as his ground ball rate was 59.7 percent in 2017 and 56.6 percent in his five September 2018 starts.
Zach Eflin, Philadelphia Phillies
2018 Player Rater: SP87/286th overall 2018 fantasy point total: 231 (SP94)
Why he's on here: The version of Eflin we saw on the mound for the majority of 2018 wasn't the one scouts rarely graded highly during his minor league days. He added more than 2 mph to his fastball velocity, boosting a 92.5 mph average in 2016-17 combined to 94.6 mph last season, and polished his slider to the point that he got strikes with it nearly 6 percent more often. Eflin had eight wins, eight quality starts, a 3.57 ERA and a sparkling 5.1 percent walk rate in his first 16 starts last season, numbers that placed him among the 25 best fantasy starting pitchers during that time span, and while he cooled thereafter (6.27 ERA in his final eight turns), his year had to be characterized a big step forward. He wouldn't have had a prayer of meeting this column's criteria last year, but he made it now and is a locked-in member of the Phillies' rotation.
How he could improve: Avoidance of the blister problems that cost him a rotation turn last July and perhaps contributed to his sluggish finish is probably the most important ingredient. The cutter he introduced in 2018, then threw more than 10 percent of the time in September, could be the more interesting story because of what it might do towards narrowing what was a 68-point wOBA righty/lefty split. If Eflin continues to work on the pitch with good results this spring, it could do wonders towards raising his statistical floor.
Jace Fry, Chicago White Sox
2018 Player Rater: RP128/432nd overall 2018 fantasy point total: 132 (RP128)
Why he's on here: He came seemingly out of nowhere to capture the White Sox's closer role for a brief period late last season, his 32.7 percent strikeout rate 16th-best and .186 batting average allowed 20th-best among qualified relievers. He got there in large part due to significantly greater slider (although some classify it a slider/cutter hybrid) usage, throwing it 31.5 percent of the time for the season and 37.5 percent after the All-Star break, and registering 48 of his 70 strikeouts with the pitch. Fry's 4.38 ERA gave his season a forgettable look, but his 1.71 ERA/FIP differential, third-largest in that direction among relief qualifiers, told a different story.
How he could improve: Fry's 57.3 left-on-base percentage was second-lowest among all pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched last season, and that category alone might be the key to his fantasy value soaring. A whopping 15 of the 28 runs he surrendered last season scored after he had left the game, but the White Sox strengthened their bullpen with the additions of Alex Colome and Kelvin Herrera to follow him on most nights. If Fry's underlying skills stick near their 2018 levels, he might even again factor into the team's closer role at some point.
Ken Giles, Toronto Blue Jays
2018 Player Rater: RP56/240th overall 2018 fantasy point total: 206 (RP58)
Why he's on here: After a tumultuous 2017 postseason during which he allowed a run in six of his seven appearances, Giles exhibited similar inconsistency as the Houston Astros' closer at the onset of last season, posting a 4.99 ERA in 34 first-half appearances and ultimately losing his closer's job, then getting demoted to Triple-A Fresno after a particularly ugly July appearance. He was traded to the Blue Jays three weeks later, where he finished the season on a high note, going 14-for-14 in his save chances with a 1.13 ERA in the team's final 46 games. Giles' top-shelf velocity remained, and his slider stayed sharp throughout, and he posted a professional best with his 3.3 percent walk rate and a big league career high with his 66.0 percent first-pitch strike rate. His 4.65 ERA, though, was nearly two and a quarter runs higher than his number from 2014-17 combined (2.43).
How he could improve: Regression to the mean to his BABIP (.333), left-on-base-percentage (63.4) and home run/fly ball percentage (10.7) might be all it takes, and his career shows annual fluctuations that explain both his best and worst performances. Giles' job security should be greater in Toronto than it was in Houston.
Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies
2018 Player Rater: SP104/319th overall 2018 fantasy point total: 287 (SP62)
Why he's on here: He has been an enigmatic pitcher the past three seasons, posting annual ERAs as low as 3.67 and as high as 5.12 while pitching more effectively at Coors Field (4.30 ERA) than away from it (4.83) during the entirety of that three-year span. Worse yet, after Gray was drafted the No. 42 starting pitcher on average entering 2018, his best ADP yet, he promptly ruined many of his managers' seasons by going 5-of-17 in quality starts with a 5.77 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in the Rockies' first 81 games, probably earning himself a "never again!" opinion from those who selected him. Beneath the surface, though, he has exhibited a consistent level of SIERA -- 3.89, 3.72, 3.74, 3.68, working forward from 2015 -- and has scarcely varied either his strikeout, walk or ground-ball rates in any singular year. There's no reason to regard Gray any differently than you might have entering 2017 or 2018.
How he could improve: Shaving a few percentage points off his 15.7 home run/fly ball percentage of 2018 would go a long way toward a Gray breakthrough. It would also help if he could recapture a little of his lost fastball velocity, as the pitch that averaged 95.9 mph in his best season in 2017 dipped to 94.7 mph on average in 2018 and 94.2 mph after the All-Star break. No, it's not his out pitch, but improving the offering even slightly could go a long way toward boosting the effectiveness of all of his other pitches.
Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Angels
2018 Player Rater: SP55/171st overall 2018 fantasy point total: 333 (SP41)
Why he's on here: Finally recovered from July 2016 Tommy John surgery, Heaney put forth an outstanding final five months of 2018, during which time he was 17-of-27 in quality starts with a 3.91 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Remarkably, that wasn't enough to make him even a top-50 fantasy starting pitcher during that time span, in part because the Angels could only support him enough for him to win nine games and because he surrendered 24 home runs. That Heaney was able to stay healthy enough to make 30 starts and pitch 180 innings with only minimal signs of late-season fatigue was the key takeaway, and they bode well for further growth in 2019.
How he could improve: Health, health, health, because in the past three seasons combined, Heaney has missed more Angels games while on the disabled list (295) than he has totaled professional innings (241 2/3). It'd also help if he continues to exhibit these traits of second-half growth (using the Angels' final 81 games to define "second half" here): 25.5 percent strikeout and 5.1 percent walk rates, 12.2 percent swinging-strike rate against right-handed hitters.
Nick Pivetta, Philadelphia Phillies
2018 Player Rater: SP109/329th overall 2018 fantasy point total: 257 (SP74)
Why he's on here: He was a popular sleeper entering 2018, tabbed by many sources, and he'll be one again this season after a second straight year posting significantly lower FIP and SIERA scores than his ERA. Pivetta posted a 6.02 ERA, 4.87 ERA and 4.32 SIERA in 2017, then 4.77/3.80/3.51 numbers in 2018, and last season he boosted his strikeout rate to a 13th-best-among-qualifiers 27.1 percent and swinging-strike rate to a 14th-best 13.2 percent. He made great strides with his curveball after making an adjustment to his grip of the pitch, recording 70 of his 188 strikeouts with the pitch, but was unable to avoid unlucky bounces during the season's latter stages, when he had a 4.85 ERA in the Phillies' final 81 games. Another year's experience might help Pivetta take another big step forward in 2019.
How he could improve: "Bad luck" has surrounded Pivetta for nearly the entirety of his two-year career to date, as his .335 BABIP in those seasons combined was fifth-worst among 159 qualifiers, his 68.1 percent left-on-base rate was 20th-worst and his 13.0 home run/fly ball percentage was 15th-worst. He'll need to turn those around to significantly break through, although further growth of his first-pitch strike rate could be his ultimate path to it happening in 2019.
One more who missed the "TBF" qualification
Pablo Lopez, Miami Marlins: It took him less than a calendar year to jump three competitive levels of the Marlins' system to the majors after coming over from the Mariners in the July 2017 David Phelps trade, as Lopez posted a 1.76 ERA in 20 games (18 starts) for his new organization before ultimately being promoted last June. Once in the majors, Lopez posted better-than-league-average swinging-strike (11.9 percent/11.7 average), first-pitch strike (63.3 percent/60.7) and ground ball rates (49.7 percent/44.6) that belied his 4.14 ERA and 18.6 percent strikeout rates. He has shown excellent control throughout his professional career, and if he can lower his already solid 7.3 percent rate while with the big club to closer to the 3.6 percent mark he enjoyed during his minor league career, he could take quite a step forward in 2019.
Kings of Command master list of qualifiers
Listed below, with starting pitchers on the left and relief pitchers on the right in ascending order of their 2018 FIP, are all 105 pitchers who met all of the Kings of Command criteria in 2018.