Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Saturday's MLB Games
By Mike Sheets
Saturday's 16-game slate features a doubleheader between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. With so many big-name hitters already rostered from both teams, there aren't a ton of widely available batters who should start both games. That said, Alec Bohm (41% rostered in ESPN leagues) is a great streaming option who is likely to start both contests. As the Phillies' everyday third baseman, Bohm is locked in as the team's No. 3 hitter. He's been on a tear of late, batting .327/.355/.436 since the All-Star break. At the very least, he'll get the platoon edge in the game started by David Peterson.
Reid Detmers (48%) has seen his roster percentage slowly creep up, but it's still not nearly as high as it should be. Since his promotion in early July, all the 23-year-old has done is post a 1.50 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP and an 11.8 K/9 in six starts. Detmers is pitching like a legitimate ace right now after revamping his slider during his stint in the minors. Against a Detroit Tigers offense that's been the worst in baseball over the past month (69 wRC+ and 27.4% strikeout rate), Detmers is the top streaming option of the day.
While the Los Angeles Dodgers were forced to shut down Walker Buehler for the remainder of the season earlier this week, they are now set to get Dustin May (32%) back. He will be making his 2022 debut after working his way back from Tommy John surgery. The 24-year-old made six rehab starts, with his last one being a five-inning, 10-strikeout effort at Triple-A. May ramped up to 70 pitches in that final rehab outing, so it may take him a couple of more outings to get fully stretched out, but now is the time to scoop him up. Over 31 big-league appearances (19 starts), May has a 2.93 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with nearly a strikeout per inning. On Saturday, he draws a nice matchup against the Miami Marlins, who sport a bottom-three wRC+ (81) in the second half.
Michael Wacha (46%) was absolutely dominant in his first start back from the IL, as he fired seven shutout frames against the New York Yankees with nine strikeouts and only one walk. That puts his season-long ERA at 2.44 across 14 outings. While the underlying numbers don't support that low ERA, he's still been consistently effective this season, holding opponents to no more than three earned runs in 12 of his 14 starts. A road matchup against the Baltimore Orioles puts Wacha squarely on the streaming radar for Saturday's action.
A few weeks ago, we highlighted Vinnie Pasquantino (25%) and his impressive batted-ball metrics. Now he's finally starting to turn those metrics into production. Over his last 11 games, he's batting .439/.489/.829 with five homers, eight RBI and more walks (four) than strikeouts (three). The lefty slugger looks like a "must add" right now, and he gets the platoon advantage against right-hander Drew Rasmussen on Saturday.
It's never too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Saturday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Brandon Crawford (SF, SS -- 37%) at Ryan Feltner
LaMonte Wade Jr. (SF, RF -- 3%) at Ryan Feltner
Tucupita Marcano (PIT, 2B -- 0%) vs. Justin Dunn
J.D. Davis (SF, 3B -- 1%) at Ryan Feltner
Ben Gamel (PIT, LF -- 2%) vs. Justin Dunn
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Saturday
Bo Bichette (TOR, SS -- 100%) at Gerrit Cole
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR, LF -- 94%) at Gerrit Cole
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR, LF -- 92%) at Gerrit Cole
THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Saturday
San Francisco Giants at Ryan Feltner
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Justin Dunn
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Trevor Williams
Prop of the Day
Alex Cobb Earned Runs: Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+125)
THE BAT sees Cobb putting up 2.64 Earned Runs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 45.3% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $23.17.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
The weather report calls for the 3rd-best pitching weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Alex Cobb is an extreme groundball pitcher (53.5% GB% according to THE BAT projections), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field -- the #3 HR venue in the league-- today.
Alex Cobb's fastball velocity has risen 1.9 mph this year (94 mph) over where it was last season (92.1 mph).