Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
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Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB Games
By Derek Carty
Despite a 3.63 ERA, a 3.29 xFIP, and a 11.2 K/9 in seven MLB starts this year, Bryan Woo remains just 19% rostered in ESPN leagues. He faces the strikeout-heavy Minnesota Twins offense on Tuesday and projects as the second-best pitcher of the whole day according to THE BAT X. That makes him the best streaming option if he's available in your league.
If your league is on the sharper side and Woo is long gone, Jameson Taillon (11% rostered) is more likely to be available and also projects in the today's overall top five against the hapless Washington Nationals offense. Tarik Skubal (26%) against the Kansas City Royals is also a viable option. If you have multiple fungible spots on your roster, it could be worth streaming multiple pitchers today.
THE BAT X projects three offenses for over six runs today: the Houston Astros, San Francisco Giants, and Atlanta Braves. Most of the best Braves players are already going to be rostered in your league, but there are a number of strong Houston and San Francisco bats that you should be focusing on today. For overall production, lean towards the Astros in Coors field. Jose Abreu (62%), Chas McCormick (2%), Mauricio Dubon (19%), and Corey Julks (5%) are all strong choices.
If you're looking more for power, the Giants go into baseball's top home run park (Great American Ball Park) with a temperature of 83 degrees. Joc Pederson (7%), LaMonte Wade Jr. (19%), Michael Conforto (9%), Mike Yastrzemski (7%), and J.D. Davis (9%) are all going to be good options for you.
For speed, look to the Philadelphia Phillies. They face a wayyyyyy over-the-hill pitcher in Julio Teheran who is also quite easy to steal against. Trea Turner (98%) is, of course, not going to be an option unless he's already on your roster, but it will be worth checking out his stolen base props. Johan Rojas (1%) was just recalled from the minors, however, and is a legitimate prospect with big-time speed. Bryson Stott (55%) and Brandon Marsh (11%) are also set up well here.
Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday
Bullpen usage watch for Tuesday
By Todd Zola
Emmanuel Clase was a frequent visitor to this space before the break, but this is his first appearance since action has resumed. Not coincidentally, last night was Clase's first post-break appearance for the Cleveland Guardians. Clase, who last worked on July 8, was asked to get the last three outs of an 11-0 shutout of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Clase obliged, fanning three while using 21 pitches. Had Clase's recent workload been heftier, 21 pitches could signal a night off, but he should be back on the hill tonight, if needed.
Heading into the top of the ninth, the Seattle Mariners held a 7-3 lead over the Minnesota Twins. Since it was a non-save situation, and Paul Sewald threw 16 pitches while collecting his 19th save on Sunday, Ty Adcock was trusted with the four-run lead. After two singles and a three-run homer from Max Kepler, Sewald was summoned for a one-out save. He delivered by striking out Ryan Jeffers on five pitches. However, pitching in back-to-back fashion renders Sewald questionable for tonight. Complicating matters is the fact that primary setup men Andres Munoz and Matt Brash have also pitched for two straight days, throwing more total pitches than the 23 tossed by Sewald. The safe play is reserving Sewald, but not looking for any of his teammates to replace him.
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
LaMonte Wade Jr. (SF, RF -- 19%) at Weaver
Michael Conforto (SF, RF -- 9%) at Weaver
Mike Yastrzemski (SF, RF -- 7%) at Weaver
Mauricio Dubon (HOU, CF -- 19%) at Koch
Chas McCormick (HOU, LF -- 2%) at Koch
Jake Meyers (HOU, CF -- 0%) at Koch
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday
Carlos Correa (MIN, SS -- 74%) at Woo
Teoscar Hernandez (SEA, RF -- 61%) vs. Ober
THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday
Prop of the Day
Joe Musgrove, Padres, 17.5 pitching outs (-178/+120)
THE BAT X sees Musgrove putting up 15.8 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 36.0% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $40.89.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
THE BAT X projects Musgrove in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall pitching skills.
In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts the fifth-most suitable pitching conditions on the slate.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
The projected offense for the Blue Jays profiles as the fourth-best of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill.
Rogers Centre ranks as the No. 8 stadium in baseball for home runs, via THE BAT X.
Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF fences in the league.
Musgrove has a large reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of going up against six same-handed batters in today's game.