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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday's MLB games

          Hunter Brown of the Houston Astros. Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
          • ESPN Fantasy
          Jul 29, 2023, 02:17 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Saturday's MLB games

          By Mike Sheets

          • James Paxton (47% rostered in ESPN leagues) is one of the top streaming hurlers to target Saturday. Many fantasy managers have steered clear of Paxton this season because of his long injury history, but there's no reason not to roll with him as a streaming option. He has put up a 3.46 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 29.1 K% across 12 outings, with quality starts in six of his past eight outings. There's no reason to fear his matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who rank last in MLB over the past month with a 71 wRC+ and .273 wOBA.

          • Fellow Red Sox player Triston Casas (35%) has been on a tear of late, batting .357/.443/.684 with 8 homers, 19 RBIs and 20 runs over his past 30 games. He's still striking out a lot, but his elite walk (14.5%) and barrel (14.6%) rates make up for it. While Casas is sitting against most lefties, he's getting the platoon edge on Saturday against Anthony DeSclafani, who has allowed a .294/.322/.493 triple slash to lefty swingers this season.

          • After a brutal stretch in June that saw Nolan Gorman (42%) slash .143/.211/.229, the 23-year-old slugger has righted the ship, producing a .295/.358/.672 slash line with six dingers and 16 RBIs over his past 17 games. He's still swinging and missing too much, which leads to some of his streakiness, but he's a tremendous power source when he's running hot, and that's the case right now. Gorman, who provides eligibility at both second and third base, is a worthwhile target Saturday, when he'll have the platoon advantage against righty Jameson Taillon.

          • Bailey Ober (61%) comes in above our 50% rostered threshold, but he's still way too widely available given what he's accomplished. Looking at his past 10 starts, the right-hander owns a 2.88 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and more than a K per inning. That stretch also includes seven consecutive quality starts. Throw in the fact that Ober gets to square off against the Kansas City Royals, who have the worst offense in the American League over the past 30 days (72 wRC+), and there's no reason he should still be hanging around on the waiver wire this weekend.

          • Chris Flexen making his Rockies debut at Coors Field feels like a good opportunity to stream some bats. There's not a ton to like about the Oakland A's offense, but the matchup is too good to ignore. Not only does the right-hander sport a 7.71 ERA this season, but he has been pounded equally by right-handed (.955 OPS) and left-handed (.918 OPS) hitters. Among the left-handed batters in the Oakland lineup, Tony Kemp (4%), JJ Bleday (1%), Seth Brown (4%) and Tyler Soderstrom (2%) all carry nice potential in this Coors Field showdown.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday

          Bullpen usage watch for Saturday

          By Todd Zola

          • Jordan Romano pitched last night while working with three days of rest. He labored through two-thirds on an inning before being lifted with recurrence of back issues. Romano threw 25 pitches, but the more relevant item is Romano is slated to be examined on Saturday. Yimi Garcia and Erik Swanson are well-rested and able to fill in today, and perhaps longer, depending on the results of Romano's evaluation.

          • Ryan Pressly has been in a rut coming out of the break, recording a 6.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over eight frames. Eight strikeouts to one walk is solid, but he's surrendered three homers in this stretch. Pressly didn't yield a home last night, but he allowed the Tampa Bay Rays to score the go-ahead run in the ninth as the Houston Astros fell 4-3. Pressly threw 22 pitches, but was working on two days of rest. Even so, his availability for Saturday is unclear. The Astros have reacquired Kendall Graveman, who is not only a potential fill-in today, but if Pressly continues to struggle, Graveman has exhibited the ability to handle ninth-inning responsibilities.

          • Raisel Iglesias threw 15 pitches last night, which is one of the triggers for questionable availability, but since he was pitching with four days of rest, he should be fine to appear on back-to-back days.

          • Similarly, Paul Sewald tossed 19 pitches on three days of rest. His usage patterns also suggest he's in play for a potential Saturday save.

          • Alexis Diaz collected a four-out save last night, but needed only 14 pitches in the process. He was appearing with two days of rest, so the Cincinnati Reds won't hesitate to bring Diaz back today.

          • Kenley Jansen threw only nine pitches last night while fanning two and collecting his 23rd save. He threw 17 pitches on Wednesday, so 26 total pitches over three days makes him questionable for tonight. The Boston Red Sox could give Jansen the day off, but they're embroiled in a tight race for the final wild card spot and have used Jansen with less of a prior workload. Chris Martin and John Schreiber are the top candidates to fill in if needed.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

          Prop of the Day

          Clarke Schmidt, New York Yankees, 4.5 strikeouts (-110/-120)

          PROJECTION

          THE BAT sees Schmidt putting up 3.8 Strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 33.7% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $25.86.

          Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • The Baltimore Orioles have three bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg).

          • Dan Bellino grades out as a Pitchers Umpire and is scheduled to be calling pitches in this game.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • The No. 7 venue in Major League Baseball for suppressing strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

          • A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the fifth-hottest temperature of the day at 86°.

          • The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.9 mph in this matchup, the third-most favorable of the day for bats.

          • Schmidt's fastball velocity over his last three starts (92 mph) has been significantly lower than than his seasonal rate (93.4 mph).