<
        >

          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Thursday's MLB games

          J.P. France doesn't offer a ton of strikeout potential, but he has pitched well of late. Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images
          • ESPN Fantasy
          Aug 24, 2023, 03:43 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Thursday's MLB games

          By Mike Sheets

          • Thursday's action gets underway at 12:10 PM ET in Progressive Field with the conclusion of yesterday's suspended game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cleveland Guardians, with the Dodgers leading 3-1 after two innings. In ESPN leagues, all stats already accrued and those from the conclusion of the contest will count towards players active in yesterday's fantasy lineup.

          • If you can get past the lack of strikeouts (6.7 K/9), J.P. France (37% rostered in ESPN leagues) has plenty to offer as a streaming option on Thursday's nine-game slate. On top of his 2.75 ERA this season, the right-hander has been lights out across his last six games (five starts), posting a 1.69 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with five quality starts. France is also providing length, as he has lasted seven frames in all but one of those five starts. On Thursday, he sets up well against a Boston Red Sox lineup that has been middle of the road over the last month with a 99 wRC+.

          • Since joining the Chicago White Sox's starting rotation in early August, Jesse Scholtens (2%) has made four starts, recording a quality start in three of them. The lone blip was a Coors Field start where he wouldn't have been on the streaming radar anyway. All told, Scholtens lacks an overpowering arsenal and doesn't hold much long-term appeal, but a home matchup versus a non-threatening Oakland Athletics lineup is enough to put him in the streamer discussion.

          • Patrick Corbin has allowed just one run in back-to-back outings, but he walked seven batters in of those starts and his ERA over his last 10 turns sits at 4.60. In other words, this is still a hurler we want to attack. The southpaw is giving up a .298/.343/.486 slash line to right-handed batters this season, and the New York Yankees have plenty of righty swingers to stream. Giancarlo Stanton (48%), DJ LeMahieu (38%), Anthony Volpe (36%), Harrison Bader (12%) and newcomers Everson Pereira (2%) and Oswald Peraza (1%), both of whom were just promoted on Tuesday, are all worthy plays.

          • Although Ke'Bryan Hayes (19%) has been an underwhelming fantasy option this season, he's making a late charge, hitting .340/.386/.623 over the last two weeks with three dingers, four doubles and 12 RBIs. Considering he has swatted only eight homers on the year, that's 38% of his long balls in the last 14 days. Hayes has done a lot more damage against lefties this season (110 wRC+) than righties (80 wRC+), and he draws the platoon advantage on Thursday versus the Chicago Cubs.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday

          Bullpen usage watch for Thursday

          By Todd Zola

          • Alexis Diaz threw a scoreless ninth, capping off the Cincinnati Reds' doubleheader sweep of the Los Angeles Angels. The Reds had a four-run lead so it was a non-save situation, A pair of walks drove Diaz's pitch count to 25, which is relevant since he threw 15 pitches on Monday. Diaz has yet to appear three days in a row, but it can't be counted out with the Reds in the thick of the wild-card race, along with trying to catch the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central lead. Normally, it would be ideal to use Diaz in tandem with Lucas Sims on a short-slated Thursday, but Sims threw 31 pitches in yesterday's nightcap, so his availability for today is in jeopardy.

          • Ryan Pressly delivered a scoreless top of the ninth to keep the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox knotted at four. The effort went for naught after Adam Duvall hit a three-run homer off Kendall Graveman in the top of the tenth, then held on for a 7-5 win in Minute Maid Park. With his 10-pitch outing, Pressly has now tossed 23 pitches over the last three days and 38 spanning the previous four days. However, he has returned to appear in back-to-back fashion with a higher workload this season, so he can't be ruled out for today's matinee to close the series.

          • Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen left last night's game after facing just one batter. He was diagnosed with right hamstring tightness, so he'll surely be held out of today's contest. Boston manager Alex Cora will probably play matchups, with Chris Martin, Garrett Whitlock, John Schreiber and Josh Winckowski in the mix. If Jansen is out long-term, Martin is most likely to emerge as the replacement closer.

          • While today's action in Cleveland is technically not a doubleheader, the approach for relievers is similar in that closers may not appear in both games -- though since they did not pitch yesterday, perhaps they will. Even so, with the abbreviated Thursday schedule, using the Dodgers' Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol together yields twice the chance to garner points in the regularly scheduled affair. (Again, the resumption of yesterday's game will have stats count for you only if you had started those players yesterday.) Trevor Stephan is the Guardians' likeliest candidate to close in the "regular game" if Emmanuel Clase appears in the suspended contest.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Thursday

          Prop of the Day

          Brayan Bello, Red Sox, 17.5 pitching outs (-150/+110)

          PROJECTION

          THE BAT X sees Bello putting up 15.8 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 36.2% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $33.90.

          Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • Nestor Ceja, who projects as a pitcher's umpire, is to be in charge of the strike zone today.

          • The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this matchup nine degrees colder than the average outdoor game on the slate, which is favorable for pitching.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • The projected lineup for the Astros ranks as the second-best on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.

          • THE BAT X projects Minute Maid Park as the seventh-best stadium in MLB for walks.

          • Minute Maid Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all parks.

          • Bello's fastball velocity has fallen 1.4 mph this year (94.3 mph) below where it was last year (95.7 mph).