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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday's MLB games

          Bryce Elder has a favorable matchup against the Mets. Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
          • Todd Zola, FantasyMay 12, 2024, 03:12 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          To Start or Not to Start

          Finding favorable pitching matchups is already a tough task. Doing so with hurlers making their first or second start after a long layoff is even more challenging. There are four such instances on the Sunday slate. For the sake of this discussion, let's put aside the fact that it's the last day of head-to-head scoring where lineup decisions are as much about needs as analysis.

          Braxton Garrett (44.1% rostered in ESPN leagues) is slated for his 2024 debut at home against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Miami Marlins lefty has been sidelined since the spring with a shoulder issue, then during rehab he experienced a dead arm. Over the past two seasons, Garrett has compiled a 3.63 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 246 strikeouts in 247⅔ frames. He has stretched out to 75 pitches, so Garrett shouldn't have any restrictions. The only concern is facing a potent Phillies lineup, though it helps the NL East affair is in pitcher-friendly loanDepot Park. Starting or sitting isn't straightforward, with a case for either. In these 50/50 calls, erring on the side of caution is recommended.

          Walker Buehler (77.7% rostered) will take the hill for the second time this season. His debut last Monday night at home against the Marlins was a mixed bag. He surrendered three runs on six hits in four innings. However, Buehler fanned four while issuing no free passes. He tossed 77 pitches with a 95.9 mph average fastball velocity, which is on par with the last couple of seasons prior to his second Tommy John procedure. Buehler and the Los Angeles Dodgers wrap up a series in Petco Park against the San Diego Padres. This is another tough call, and waiting for another start before deploying Buehler is defensible, but my lean is clicking him in the active lineup.

          Bryan Bello (30.1% rostered) is one of the reasons the Boston Red Sox's pitching is one of the early-season surprises. The right-hander last took the hill on April 19 as he has been shelved with a sore lat. Bello is slated to return on Sunday in Fenway Park against the Washington Nationals. Bello made one rehab appearance, yielding three runs on four hits in 2⅔ innings, albeit with five strikeouts. Even so, Bello will likely be on a pitch count, and the Nationals sport a below-average strikeout rate, so the sage approach is waiting one more start before trusting Bello.

          The last one is easy. Alek Manoah (3.4% rostered) doesn't belong anywhere near a fantasy roster. He struggled in his season debut earlier in the week, and on Sunday he'll face a Minnesota Twins lineup that has recently laid waste to a few of the best starters in the American League.

          What you may have missed on Friday

          By Todd Zola

          • Shohei Ohtani was taken out of yesterday's game after experiencing back tightness. Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts expressed minimal concern, deeming Ohtani as questionable for today's rubber game of a three-game series in Petco Park with the San Diego Padres. Be sure to check the lineups when they're posted.

          • A tight right hamstring forced Michael Conforto to leave Saturday's contest for a pinch-runner in the fourth inning. The San Francisco Giants had Luis Matos pulled from his Triple-A game in anticipation of being recalled with Conforto likely headed for an IL stint. More will be known after Conforto undergoes an MRI today.

          • Christopher Morel hurt his knee stealing in the third inning of yesterday's Chicago Cubs 10-9 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Morel stayed in the game but was replaced in the fifth inning following a rain delay. His availability for today's rubber game of a weekend set in PNC Park is up in the air.

          • The Cubs hoped Jameson Taillon would be available to start the NL Central affair, but his back is still tight, so Kyle Hendricks will come off the 15-day IL a day early to take the hill. The hope is for Taillon to avoid another visit to the injured, which leaves a tough decision for fantasy managers in weekly leagues since Taillon could start twice next week, though the first would be a road affair against the Atlanta Braves.

          • Kyle Schwarber won't be in the starting lineup today when the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Miami Marlins in South Beach. Schwarber left Friday's game with a sore back, and then sat out yesterday. With Jesus Luzardo starting yesterday, and Braxton Garrett making his Marlins 2024 debut today, Schwarber serendipitously missed a pair of southpaws. Tomorrow, the Phillies will be in Queens for the opener of a four-game home and home series with the New York Mets. The hope is for Schwarber to be back in the lineup, even with another lefty, Sean Manaea, scheduled to start for the Mets.

          • Staying with the Mets, OF Brandon Nimmo left Saturday's game after hurting his right intercostal on a checked swing. The club doesn't play until the ESPN Sunday night affair; more should be known about Nimmo's availability later today.

          • Kenta Maeda was put on the 15-day IL with a viral illness. Maeda is struggling in his first season with the Detroit Tigers, sporting a 6.75 ERA and 1.40. Matt Manning will be recalled from Triple-A to take Maeda's spot in the rotation, beginning Monday versus the Marlins.

          • The Pirates placed Ke'Bryan Hayes on the 10-day IL due to a sore back. Hayes last played on Tuesday, so the stint can be backdated a bit. Alika Williams was recalled, filling Hayes' roster spot. Williams should serve in a reserve capacity, with Jared Triolo handling the bulk of the action at the hot corner.

          • Pete Fairbanks was activated from the IL on Saturday and was used in the ninth inning to preserve the Rays 7-2 lead over the Yankees. He delivered a clean frame with a punch out. Look for Fairbanks to be reinstalled as the Rays chief closer with Jason Adam back to primary set up man.

          Everything else you need to know for Sunday

          • Sunday action commences at 1:35 p.m. ET with three games, followed soon thereafter with another four contests. The fantasy week finishes with an NL East affair featuring the Atlanta Braves visiting the New York Mets in the ESPN Sunday night showcase. The Braves' Bryce Elder (5.6% rostered) is the docket's top-ranked streaming candidate. The righty enjoys a big park upgrade, facing a below-average lineup. That said, don't expect Elder to pile up a bunch of strikeouts.

          • Luis Gil (23.2% rostered) is listed just below Edler. The New York Yankees are in St. Petersburg for the finale of a key AL East series with the Tampa Bay Rays. Gil has posted two straight quality starts, limiting the potent Astros and Orioles to just one run in 12⅓ stanzas. For the season, Gil has an impressive 45 strikeouts in 37 frames, though he has issued 24 free passes. The Rays' offense continues to underperform expectations while striking out at an above-average clip. Furthering Gil's cause is the Rays are one of the league's least patient clubs.

          • Kyle Harrison (43.5% rostered) also checks in as a streamer with the San Francisco Giants hosting the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds have averaged the fewest runs per game so far in May. Meanwhile, Harrison has posted three consecutive quality starts, the last two being in Fenway Park and Coors Field, the two best parks for scoring runs in MLB. Harrison will toe the rubber in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park.

          • Betting Tip of the Day: Luis Castillo's strikeout rate is 28.4%, his highest mark since 2020. He's walking batters at a career-low 5.6% clip. On Sunday, Castillo faces an Oakland Athletics lineup with the fifth highest strikeout rate in the league. While I'm tempted to take the over on 8.5 strikeouts (+145), I got greedy yesterday and paid for it, so let's play it safe with the over on 7.5 strikeouts (-125).

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today