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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday's MLB games

          Erick Fedde has been a different pitcher since returning from South Korea. Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasyMay 25, 2024, 04:13 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          A new man

          In 2022, Erick Fedde had a 6-13 record (5.81 ERA,1.63 WHIP) to go along with 94 strikeouts in 127 IP for the Washington Nationals.

          The right-hander wasn't pleased and decided to make some changes. Fedde spent the early part of the offseason in Arizona at Push Performance, which is a facility like Driveline, designed to work with athletes to optimize performance. While there, Fedde worked with a physical therapist to help alleviate the aches and pains that plagued him during the 2022 season, along with adding a sweeper and improving his changeup.

          Fedde knew it would be hard to incorporate the changes at the MLB level, so he signed with the NC Dinos in South Korea. Fedde posted a 2.00 ERA and an 0.97 WHIP with 209 strikeouts in 180⅓ innings there and was named as the KBO's best pitcher. As confident as ever and feeling much better physically, Fedde then decided to return to the United States. The Chicago White Sox inked Fedde to a two-year, $15 million deal.

          So far, Fedde has earned every penny as he's registered a 3.10 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with 52 strikeouts in 58 frames spanning 10 starts. He's benefiting from a fortunate 81.8% LOB mark, but his 3.81 xFIP and 3.80 SIERA indicate that Fedde is indeed a better pitcher than he was two years ago. His 15.6 K-BB% is down from the 24.6% mark he logged in the KBO, but it's a career-best in MLB.

          On Saturday, Fedde (35% rostered in ESPN leagues) faces the Baltimore Orioles. He struggled his last time out, yielding five runs in six frames on the road to the Toronto Blue Jays. However, this game is at home where Fedde has pitched to a 1.14 ERA and an 0.88 WHIP in 31⅔ innings. The sample size is too small to be predictive, but it's safe to say that Fedde isn't intimidated by the fact Guaranteed Rate Field is a hitter's venue. The Orioles, surprisingly, are the ninth-least productive lineup with a righty on the hill, landing Fedde as one of the docket's best streamers.

          What you may have missed on Friday

          By Todd Zola

          • The opener of the weekend set in Busch Stadium was washed out, with the St. Louis Cardinals hosting the Chicago Cubs, and the makeup date is set for July 13 as part of a separate admission doubleheader. Matthew Liberatore, last night's scheduled starter, will now be skipped with Miles Mikolas making the start as initially planned. On the other hand, the Cubs will use the postponement to give Shota Imanaga extra rest. They will stay with Jameson Taillon, today's regularly scheduled starter, while pushing Imanaga to next week's road series with the Milwaukee Brewers.

          • The Atlanta Braves placed AJ Smith-Shawver on the 15-day IL with a Grade 2 left oblique strain. Smith-Shawver was called up for a spot start on Thursday night. The 21-year-old right-hander was struggling with Triple-A Gwinnett, so he'll return to the Stripers once healthy, which is expected to be in six-to-eight weeks. A strong showing on the farm could land Smith-Shawver back in the bigs later in the second half.

          • The Los Angeles Angels received good news when SS Zach Neto's MRI on his right elbow indicated just inflammation. Neto missed Friday's contest and remains questionable for tonight when the Angels host the Cleveland Guardians.

          • Braves manager Brian Snitker reported that 3B Austin Riley will remain sidelined through the weekend, with a target of a Memorial Day return.

          • The New York Mets announced that SP Kodai Senga received a cortisone shot yesterday. Senga was scratched from a recent bullpen session after experiencing triceps tightness. The injection was to help calm down inflammation in the area. Senga had been rehabbing a shoulder capsule strain. The additional issue will delay his return, the timing of which remains unclear.

          • Texas Rangers OF Wyatt Langford embarked on a rehab assignment last night, leading off as the designated hitter for Triple-A Round Rock. Langford will stay with the Express through the weekend, with a possible return next week, perhaps as early as Tuesday when the Rangers host the Diamondbacks in a rematch of last season's Fall Classic.

          • The Baltimore Orioles put SP Dean Kremer on the 15-day IL with a right triceps strain. Kremer was slated to start today, but Albert Suarez will return to the rotation in his stead. It's unclear how long Kremer will be on the shelf.

          Everything else you need to know for Saturday

          • With a 2:10 p.m. ET start, the White Sox-Orioles tilt will be one of nine Saturday matinees. Action commences in Motown at 1:10 p.m. ET with the Detroit Tigers hosting the Blue Jays.

          • There are a few streaming candidates ranked higher than Fedde, beginning with Luis Severino (18.9% rostered), the No. 2 overall starter on the schedule. The New York Mets host the San Francisco Giants at Citi Field, the best pitching park in the majors. Severino is in a rut, having posted a 5.94 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP over his last three outings. He opened the season with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP spanning his first six starts. Control has been the issue lately with 12 walks over his past 16⅔ innings. The Giants are league-average in terms of both walk rate and wOBA, so it's a good spot for Severino to get back on track.

          • Next up is Aaron Civale (16.2%) who will take the hill at Tropicana Field when the Tampa Bay Rays host the Kansas City Royals. Civale has been a bit of a disappointment over the first two months, failing to repeat the success he enjoyed after being acquired by the Rays at last season's trade deadline. That said, Civale's strikeout and walk rates are both above average. He has been a bit unlucky with a high HR rate, which is due some regression. It helps to explain why his ERA is 5.92, but his xFIP is 3.73 and his SIERA is 3.82. The Royals sport an above-average offense, but most of the club's scoring has been at home in the latent hitter-friendly Kauffman Stadium. Tropicana Field is a pitcher's venue, giving Civale a chance to lower his ratios.

          • The Toronto Blue Jays offense has shown signs of life lately, though they were kept in check on Friday night by Detroit Tigers SP Kenta Maeda who made his first start since May 7 as he was sidelined by an illness. Today, the Tigers will send Reese Olson (20.2% rostered) to the Comerica Park hill. Olson had to leave his previous outing early as he was hit in the hip by a line drive in the third inning of last Monday's outing. Olson has allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his nine efforts, including four quality starts. There is some risk since Olson doesn't miss many bats and the Blue Jays don't strike out excessively, but on a slate with few solid streaming opportunities, Olson is in play for fantasy teams needing a late week push.

          • Betting Tip of the Day: The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Miami Marlins tonight with Jordan Montgomery facing Sixto Sanchez. Montgomery hasn't found a groove after the Diamondbacks signed him late in spring training. Even so, I like the southpaw to keep the Marlins in check while the Diamondbacks offense scores some runs on the inconsistent Sanchez. I'll take the Diamondbacks and the Run Line -1.5 (+110).

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          The BAT X's Best Stacks for Saturday