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          Monday's fantasy baseball picks: Manaea with strong matchup against Cards

          Sean Manaea takes the hill for the New York Mets as they chase a Wild Card spot. John Jones/USA TODAY Sports
          • Todd Zola, FantasyAug 5, 2024, 03:24 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Mets take on Cardinals as both chase Wild Card

          The New York Mets are in the thick of the NL Wild Card chase. Their resurgence has mostly been a team effort, though SS Francisco Lindor deserves a lot of credit. After opening the season with a .193/.268/.348 line over 47 games, Lindor batted .300/.375/.546 with 16 steals in 17 attempts in his ensuing 63 contests.

          On the pitching side, the Mets garnered one start from Kodai Senga, and hasn't enjoyed the expected second half reinforcement from rookie Christian Scott. Instead, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino and David Peterson have done the heavy lifting, along with Sean Manaea, who gets the nod Monday in a makeup game on the road against the St. Louis Cardinals.

          Manaea's record is 7-4, but the Mets have won 14 of his 21 starts, indicating he's keeping the club in the game most of the time. Granted, the veteran lefty has benefited from Lady Luck as his ERA estimators are almost a run higher than his 3.50 actual mark, but Manaea is keeping the ball in the yard, which is integral to his success. On Monday, Manaea (27.4% rostered in ESPN leagues) isn't the highest ranked streaming candidate, but he's in play. Surprisingly, the Cardinals offense has generated the second lowest wOBA with a left-hander on the hill.

          What you may have missed on Sunday

          • Houston Astros manager Joe Espada indicated that SP Lance McCullers Jr. will not be taking the hill this season. McCullers had been rehabbing from right flexor tendon surgery and the removal of a bone spur. If he's able to pitch in 2025, it will be the first time he has toed the rubber since the 2022 postseason. In other news, SP Justin Verlander hit 94 mph during a two-inning simulated game on Sunday. The club hopes to have Verlander return in a couple of weeks, at which time they'll deploy a six-man rotation.

          • Chicago Cubs OF Ian Happ was scratched from Sunday's lineup due to a sore back. Happ collided with the outfield wall on Saturday night. His availability for tonight's home date with the Minnesota Twins is unclear. If Happ is unable to play, OF Mike Tauchman is the likely substitute.

          • Speaking of outfield walls, Twins OF Byron Buxton made a leaping catch up against the wall yesterday and then was removed from the game. The move has been deemed precautionary, but he's also questionable for tonight's opener with the Cubs.

          • Tampa Bay Rays 1B Yandy Diaz took a 109.8-mph ground ball off his wrist, courtesy of Astros OF Yordan Alvarez. Diaz exited the game, with X-rays showing no fracture. The Rays have today off and then embark on a road series with the St. Louis Cardinals tomorrow. Diaz's status should be clarified on Tuesday.

          • Texas Rangers OF Wyatt Langford missed his second straight game as he has been experiencing a tight back. The club isn't concerned about the injury, but didn't want to take any chances with their prized rookie. Langford began his career with a .224/.295/.293 line over 31 games, before being sidelined due to a hamstring injury. Since returning, Langford has hit .256/.317/.420 with eight steals over 55 games.

          • Boston Red Sox OF Tyler O'Neill missed his second game in a row as he deals with a stomach virus. He was reportedly available off the bench, which bodes well for a return to the lineup tonight in the opener of an important road series with the Kansas City Royals, Both clubs are in the heat of the AL Wild Card chase.

          Everything else you need to know for Monday

          • Note that the start time of the Cardinals-Mets affair is 5:05 p.m ET. It was initially an off day for both teams, so the unusually early first pitch allows both teams to head to their Tuesday destination at a reasonable time.

          • When a team is enduring a 20-game losing streak, it's Pavlovian to check out the opposing pitcher, hoping they're readily available. The reeling Chicago White Sox open a road series against the Oakland Athletics, and sure enough, JP Sears (7.3% rostered) is likely ripe for the picking. Sears struggled coming out of the break, but seemingly righted the ship last time out with seven shutout stanzas on the road against the Giants. Sears fanned nine while issuing just one free pass.

          • Sears is the top-ranked streaming option, followed by Cardinals SP Andre Pallante (3.3% rostered). Since entering the rotation in late May, Pallante has posted a 3.61 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He's not dominant, with only 43 strikeouts in 53 1/3 innings over that span, but Pallante doesn't beat himself with walks and he keeps the ball in the yard. With the Cardinals acquiring SP Erick Fedde, Pallante was slated to return to the bullpen, but the injury to SP Lance Lynn has delayed that transition. The Mets offense has been productive on the road, but it has slowed down from its earlier torrid pace.

          • Minnesota Twins SP David Festa (2.0% rostered) has been filling in for injured SP Chris Paddack. Festa's 6.98 ERA and 1.40 WHIP may be unsightly, but a 3.87 xFIP and 3.61 SIERA indicate some sample size misfortune. Festa's 24.7% strikeout rate and 4.7% walk rate are both better than league average. On Monday, Festa and the Twins open an interleague set at Wrigley Field. The Chicago Cubs sport a below-average offense while fanning at an above-average clip, giving Festa a shot to lower his bloated ratios.

          • Betting tip of the day: San Francisco Giants SS Tyler Fitzgerald has been equally productive both with and without the platoon advantage. However, the right-handed batter has been leading off with a lefty on the hill and tonight the Giants are slated to face Washington Nationals southpaw Patrick Corbin. A big night is in store, so I'm taking Fitzgerald and over 2.5 total Hits + runs + RBI (+120).

          It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Monday