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          Fantasy baseball lineup advice: Pfaadt, Bradley lead Monday streamers

          Brandon Pfaadt of the Arizona Diamondbacks is the top streamer of the day. Jason Miller/Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasyAug 19, 2024, 03:02 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          No problems in Houston

          At the end of April, the Houston Astros were in last place in the AL West, with a 10-19 record. At the end of May, they climbed to third place but were still eight games under .500 at 25-33. After a 17-8 June, the Astros were in second place, just 4.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners, but only two back in the loss column. Entering Sunday's action, the Astros were atop the division at 66-56, four games ahead of the Mariners.

          Like all 30 of the major league teams, the Astros were bitten hard by the injury bug, with their pitching hit harder than most. Framber Valdez has been steady all season. Ronel Blanco has been a pleasant surprise. Hunter Brown's turnaround has not so coincidentally coincided with the Astros' surge in the standings. Veteran Justin Verlander is expected to help down the stretch. Even so, the club fortified its rotation at the trade deadline, acquiring Yusei Kikuchi from the Toronto Blue Jays. The Astros won all three of his starts so far, with Kikuchi collecting the win in the past two. He has recorded a 2.70 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 16⅔ innings since the deal, fanning 24 while issuing six walks. Kikuchi's bugaboo is the long ball. He has surrendered a palatable two over this span.

          For the season, Kikuchi has administered 19 homers in 132⅓ innings. However, nine came in the span of six games, covering 28⅔ innings. That means the lefty allowed only 10 homers in the remaining 103⅔ frames. Of course, every hurler's stat line would look better by selectively ignoring the subpar efforts, but looking at Kikuchi's season in this manner could help assuage lingering biases.

          Even with a career best 27.4% strikeout rate a career low 6.4% walk rate this season, Kikuchi is rostered in only 44.9% of ESPN leagues, up from around 33% at the time of the trade.

          On Monday, Kikuchi and the Astros welcome the Boston Red Sox to Minute Maid Park for the opener of a three-game set. It's an intriguing matchup since the Red Sox's lineup feeds into Kikuchi's ability to miss bats, but they've been productive facing southpaw pitching over the past month. Even so, in most leagues, Kikuchi warrants an active spot in a fantasy lineup. The exception is teams in season-long leagues with tightly contested ratio categories.

          What you may have missed on Sunday

          • Los Angeles Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman missed yesterday's game due to a sprained finger and will miss at least one more as he won't play in tonight's home affair against the Seattle Mariners. More will be known about his status after Freeman undergoes a CT scan today. Yesterday, Enrique Hernandez moved across the diamond to cover first base with Miguel Rojas manning the hot corner. The Dodgers also expect Tommy Edman to make his 2024 debut. There is a chance he will play third base (give the juggling required in Freeman's absence), but he's more likely to take over as the regular in center field.

          • Atlanta Braves 3B Austin Riley left yesterday's game after being hit in the hand by a pitch. Initial X-rays were inconclusive, so Riley is slated to be re-evaluated today. The club is off until Tuesday, so we may have to wait to hear about Riley's timetable.

          • Arizona Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte aggravated his ankle during a pinch-hit appearance. He's been dealing with a lingering ankle issue for over a week. The Diamondbacks kick off the Monday slate with a road date against the Miami Marlins. Marte's status is unclear, but since he needed to be helped off the field on Sunday, it's best to plan on a fantasy replacement.

          • San Diego Padres SS Ha-Seong Kim was forced from yesterday's contest after jamming his right shoulder while diving back to first base on a pickoff attempt. Kim was wearing a sling after the game. He's slated for an MRI, rendering his status for tonight's home date with the Minnesota Twins unclear.

          • Tampa Bay Rays closer Pete Fairbanks will likely be out for an extended period as he's scheduled for an MRI on his side. The initial diagnosis is a lat strain. There is no clear-cut choice for saves in Fairbanks' absence, with Manuel Rodriguez, Colin Poche and Edwin Uceta all in the mix.

          • While it doesn't impact today's action, it was reported over the weekend that Detroit Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal and Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Paul Skenes will both have their workloads managed over the final six weeks of the season. Skubal will probably receive extra rest between outings while Skenes' innings per game will be cut back.

          Everything else you need to know for Monday

          • The slate's top-ranked streaming option is Monday's second-highest pitcher overall. The Arizona Diamondbacks' Brandon Pfaadt (46.9% rostered) has a favorable road date with the Miami Marlins. The right-hander is coming off one of the best outings of his fledgling career, tying a career high with 11 strikeouts with no walks at home against the Colorado Rockies. Matching that will be a challenge, but the Marlins sport the league's third-lowest wOBA facing righties with the 12th-highest strikeout rate.

          • Tampa Bay Rays SP Taj Bradley (43.3% rostered) seemingly caught a break when his scheduled Sunday start against the Diamondbacks was pushed to Monday facing the Oakland Athletics. It was the right call with opener Drew Rasmussen and primary pitcher Tyler Alexander keeping the league's top-scoring offense in check. Now it's up to Bradley to do the same against a much less daunting lineup. The Athletics' wOBA facing righties is the 11th poorest in the league, in large part due to the third-highest strikeout rate with a right-hander on the hill. Bradley hasn't compiled enough innings to qualify, but if he did, his 28.5% strikeout rate would rank ninth.

          • San Francisco Giants LHP Kyle Harrison (28.6% rostered) draws the enviable start in the opener of a home series with the Chicago White Sox. Harrison has posted a 4.32 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in five outings since the break. He has fanned an impressive 30 batters in 25 stanzas over that span, but he also has served up six homers. Since the break, the White Sox have clubbed a league-low 21 long balls, and they'll have to deal with a huge park downgrade from their home venue.

          • Betting tip of the day: The Twins open an interleague set at Petco Park with the Padres. Michael King will be on the hill for the Padres, to be opposed by Zebby Matthews. King has enjoyed a solid season and Matthews shined in his debut, but these are two of the top offenses in the game. Since the break, these two lineups have averaged a combined 10.6 runs per game. I'm taking over 7.5 total runs scored (Even).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Monday