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          Fantasy baseball Thursday advice: Look to Cristopher Sanchez

          Cristopher Sanchez faces a depleted Braves offense. AP Photo/Derik Hamilton
          • Eric Karabell, ESPN Senior WriterAug 22, 2024, 03:00 PM
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            • ESPN contributor on TV, radio, podcasts, blogs, Magazine
            • Charter member of FSWA Hall of Fame
            • Author of "The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments"
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Feeling lucky with Luis?

          Luis Severino won 33 games for the 2017-18 New York Yankees, averaging 225 strikeouts during those two seasons and seemingly cementing his status among the top pitchers in the league. His ride has been quite the bumpy one since then, but as he prepares for the 25th start of his New York Mets campaign Thursday to open a key road series against the San Diego Padres, with a 3.91 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, fantasy baseball managers can call this a success story. After all, just making 25 starts can be considered a victory.

          Still, this is hardly the Severino of old, with much inconsistency and a depressed strikeout rate, which is why Severino remains available in nearly 75% of ESPN standard leagues, barely adjusted even as he comes off his second career shutout. Severino silenced the underwhelming Miami Marlins on four hits last week, for his first win in four weeks, after permitting 14 earned runs in 13 innings over his previous three starts, losing to the Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies and Seattle Mariners.

          Fantasy managers do not know what they will get with Severino, 30, from outing to outing, and having to face overpowering Padres RHP Dylan Cease might mean the Mets will struggle for runs. Then again, Cease has made four starts since his late-July no-hitter against the Washington Nationals, and he hasn't reached six innings in any of them. It's awesome that Severino tossed a shutout last week, but as we have seen with Cease, hardly predictive of future success.

          What you may have missed on Wednesday

          By Todd Zola

          • Joey Votto announced his retirement. The longtime Cincinnati Reds first baseman spent the summer on a minor league contract with his hometown Toronto Blue Jays but, after dealing with several injuries, the 40-year-old, six-time All-Star decided to hang up his cleats.

          • Reds OF Jake Fraley was scratched from last night's contest because of a sprained right knee. His availability for tonight's road date with the Pittsburgh Pirates is unclear. Will Benson filled in yesterday and will likely continue to do so if Fraley misses more action.

          • Seattle Mariners OF Victor Robles missed last night's game due to a hip issue. The club is off today, but remains hopeful that Robles can return on Friday. Since joining the Mariners in early June, Robles has produced a .280/.340/.413 line with 14 steals in 14 tries.

          • Los Angeles Dodgers SS Miguel Rojas missed last night's tilt due to a hamstring issue. With Nick Ahmed having been recently released, Tommy Edman handled shortstop and Kevin Kiermaier roamed center field. Manager Dave Roberts indicated that he was playing it safe with Rojas but that he expects him to return to the lineup on Friday, the next time the Dodgers play.

          • New York Yankees SP Luis Gil was placed on the 10-day IL. The 26-year-old righty left Tuesday's outing thanks to lower back strain. The club is optimistic that the injury is minor and expect Gil to return after the minimum IL stay. Rookie RHP Will Warren was recalled in a corresponding move. Initially, Warren may work out of the bullpen, but it is anticipated that he may slide into Gil's spot in the rotation.

          • Tampa Bay Rays reliever Manuel Rodriguez collected the team's second save since closer Pete Fairbanks was placed on the IL. Edwin Uceta had captured the first, suggesting the Rays may be using the dreaded (at least for fantasy purposes) "closer by committee."

          Everything else you need to know for Thursday

          • Welcome to another Paul Skenes day! The Pittsburgh Pirates ace and potential NL Rookie of the Year hosts the Reds for the second time, after permitting one run over six innings in a June win. Fantasy managers and everyone else love Skenes, but they may be concerned after the organization recently announced it may shorten his future outings. This might mirror how the Chicago White Sox carefully handle LHP Garrett Crochet, who has seven consecutive starts of four or fewer innings, and last won a game in early June. It may be the correct thing long-term, but not for redraft fantasy managers.

          • The Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles begin a key four-game series in Baltimore, with RHP Corbin Burnes hosting RHP Spencer Arrighetti. Burnes has been one of the top hurlers in baseball this season, and his next win will be his 13th, notching a career high, but Arrighetti is the one available in more than 80% of ESPN standard leagues. Guess who has more strikeouts over the past 30 days? It isn't Burnes. In fact, Arrighetti has become one of the top strikeout pitchers in the sport, with a pair of double-digit efforts in August, though it has yet to translate to top-notch run prevention.

          • The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves complete their three-game series, with LHP Cristopher Sanchez facing RHP Spencer Schwellenbach. Sanchez permitted two hits and a run against the Nationals this past weekend, his second complete game of the season. The problem for Thursday is Sanchez has a 5.53 ERA in road games, with a 2.18 mark at home. Then again, the Braves are missing half their lineup due to injury. This would be a good time for Sanchez to overcome his home/road splits.

          • Betting tip of the day: The Chicago Cubs host the Detroit Tigers in a Thursday matinee. The conditions in Wrigley Field should favor pitching, with mid-70s temperatures and a slight wind blowing in from right. Justin Steele is starting for the Cubs and he lines up for a solid outing against a lineup which struggles when facing southpaws. All of the associated team and player props require paying juice (meaning a winning bet pays out less than the bet itself) except one. Let's take that one, which is for Steele to record the win (+140).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Thursday