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          Fantasy baseball Sunday advice: MacKenzie Gore a sneaky start

          The Nationals have struggled, but MacKenzie Gore has streaming potential Sunday. Geoff Burke/Imagn Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasySep 15, 2024, 02:16 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

          Long Nationals nightmare is almost over

          Since winning the 2019 World Series, the Washington Nationals have experienced five consecutive losing seasons. They're tied with the Colorado Rockies for the worst record over that span, checking in at 283-410 (.408). While the Nationals are not likely to compete for a playoff berth next season, challenging a .500 record is a reasonable goal.

          The position players are developing, especially with 2B Luis Garcia and SS CJ Abrams making up an exciting duo up the middle. Two of the top outfield prospects are holding their own, with James Wood and Dylan Crews exhibiting the power/speed combo that has them at the precipice of fantasy and MLB stardom. Keibert Ruiz has taken a step back behind the plate, but he still makes contact at an elite level and has the offseason to recapture his lost exit velocity. The rotating door at the hot corner should finally be solved sometime next year with top prospect Brady House.

          The pitching has not developed as swimmingly as the offense, or has it? The club has garnered surprising efforts from Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker. Neither portend as aces, but they have demonstrated they can be effective in the back end of a major league rotation. He's still raw, but LHP DJ Herz has displayed intriguing strikeout potential.

          The issue is that RHP MacKenzie Gore, RHP Josiah Gray and RHP Cade Cavalli were supposed to front the rotation. Gore has shown flashes, but Gray and Cavalli are lagging. Injuries have curtailed the latter two, though Gray continues to display control issues when healthy.

          Gore's 4.34 ERA is close to league average. However, his ERA estimators suggest he has pitched better. A high .357 BABIP and low 66.7% left-on-base mark have inflated Gore's surface stats. His 23.8% strikeout rate is better than league average and he has surrendered only 14 home runs in 147⅓ innings. The only area in which Gore has performed below average is control, registering an 8.9% walk rate, and that's not egregious.

          Gore (16.8% rostered in ESPN leagues) lines up for three more outings, each of which will set a personal best in starts and innings. The first is Sunday at home against the Miami Marlins. For the season, the Marlins sport the seventh-lowest wOBA facing left-handers, though they've been better since the All-Star break. Even so, they fan at an above-average clip, landing Gore in streaming territory.

          What you may have missed on Saturday

          • Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts revealed that RHP Tyler Glasnow has been diagnosed with a sprained right elbow and is likely done for the regular season. There is some hope that Glasnow could return and pitch in the playoffs if the Dodgers enjoy a long postseason run. It will be interesting to see how Roberts handles the rotation this week with the club scheduled for seven games. Every starting pitcher has routinely pitched on at least five days of rest, but there isn't a clear option to work in the sixth spot, with LHP Justin Wrobleski probably the top candidate. The Dodgers lead in the NL West has shrunk to 3.5 games over the San Diego Padres and the Dodgers rotation is a mess, with RHP Landon Knack and RHP Bobby Miller continuing to struggle. The club is also in danger of losing the first round bye to the Milwaukee Brewers.

          • Staying in the NL West, Arizona Diamondbacks RHP Ryne Nelson was placed on the 10-day IL due to right shoulder inflammation. The club hopes Nelson can return in time to make a start in the final series of the season. LHP Jordan Montgomery will be welcomed back into the rotation with a road start against the Colorado Rockies, slated for Tuesday.

          • New York Mets SS Francisco Lindor missed his second consecutive contest yesterday as he's still experiencing back soreness. In his place, the Mets promoted Luisangel Acuna, the younger brother of Ronald Acuna Jr.. The 22-year-old prospect was acquired from the Texas Rangers by the Mets at the 2023 trade deadline in the Max Scherzer deal.

          • Washington Nationals SS CJ Abrams missed his second straight game because of a sore left shoulder. He hurt it while diving for a ball on Thursday. Abrams availability for today's home date with the Miami Marlins is unclear.

          • The Cleveland Guardians opted to give OF Steven Kwan another day to recover from general body soreness. The club has lost two of the first three games of a home set with the Tampa Bay Rays. It's unclear if Kwan will take the field when the Guardians try for a split on Sunday. Cleveland leads the AL Central by three games over the Minnesota Twins. The two clubs embark on a four-game series on Monday.

          Everything else you need to know for Sunday

          • Sunday's action begins at 12:05 p.m. ET in Motown with the Detroit Tigers hosting the Baltimore Orioles. Thirteen matinees ensue. The Atlanta Braves host the Los Angeles Dodgers in the ESPN Sunday night affair.

          • Sunday marks the last day of Round 1 of the fantasy playoffs (Sep 2-15). Those still in need of a pitching boost should consider Oakland Athletics LHP JP Sears (21.5% rostered) for his road date with the Chicago White Sox. He isn't dominant, posting a pedestrian 18.0% strikeout rate, but Sears has catalogued 12 quality starts in 29 outings, with 16 efforts lasting at least six frames. Innings and run prevention help mitigate Sears' lack of strikeouts, though facing the White Sox could be a boon in that realm.

          • Texas Rangers LHP Andrew Heaney has pitched well lately, registering a 3.00 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his past seven efforts (36 innings), fanning 42 while issuing just eight free passes and allowing only five homers. Wins have been heard to come by, and runs will be scant on Sunday facing RHP George Kirby and the Seattle Mariners. But Heaney will be facing one of the league's weakest lineups against lefties, in part due to striking out at the fourth-highest rate.

          • Another hurler with elevated strikeout upside is Minnesota Twins RHP David Festa. The Twins and Cincinnati Reds will wrap up an interleague set in Target Field. Despite hitting Twins RHP Bailey Ober hard Friday night, the Reds have struggled facing right-handers. They're especially susceptible to strikeouts with a 25.1% strikeout rate against righties, the fourth-highest in the league. Festa hasn't compiled ample innings to qualify, but if he did, his 28.6% strikeout rate would land seventh.

          • Betting tip of the day: The Coors Field scoreboard operator is expected to be busy in today's matchup between the Rockies and Chicago Cubs. The visitors will give the nod to RHP Kyle Hendricks, so I'll give the nod to Rockies OF and leadoff hitter Charlie Blackmon to have a productive afternoon. Take Blackmon over 2.5 total hits + runs + RBI (+110).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Sunday