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          Fantasy baseball Monday advice: Don't sleep on Reid Detmers

          Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasySep 16, 2024, 03:45 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

          Reid 'em and Weep

          The career of Los Angeles Angels LHP Reid Detmers hasn't progressed as initially hoped. The author of a May 2022 no-hitter was demoted to Triple-A just over a month later. Detmers was recalled and made 13 second half starts, pitching to a 3.04 ERA but a high 1.30 WHIP. His 8.3% walk rate over that span was a tad high, but palatable when paired with his 25.8% strikeout rate. A .339 BABIP was responsible for inflating Detmer's WHIP, and it was reasonable to expect positive regression and a strong 2023 season.

          Things did not transpire as planned. Detmers fanned more hitters, aided by an uptick in velocity. He also issued more free passes and surrendered more homers. His .318 BABIP indeed fell from the previous season's second half mark, but it was still high, especially for a fly ball pitcher. Detmers posted a disappointing 4.48 ERA in 28 starts, and it was mostly deserved with the array of expected ERA ranging from 4.13 to 4.27.

          Expectations weren't as high heading into this season, but an above average strikeout rate kept Detmers on the fantasy radar. Unfortunately, this year has seen a bit more deterioration in his walk and home run rates, along with an unlucky 63.3% left-on-base mark. The result was an even longer minor league stint and only 14 major league starts so far in 2024.

          Perhaps this is wish casting, or maybe Detmers figured something out in his latest visit with Triple-A Salt Lake. In two outings since being recalled, the lefty has posted a pair of quality starts, each six innings efforts with two earned runs allowed. He fanned a combined 18 batters while issuing just four total walks and scattering eight hits.

          Detmers (44.9% rostered in ESPN leagues) lines up for three more starts, beginning with Monday's home date with the Chicago White Sox. Detmers aims to carry momentum into next year while the White Sox are trying to avoid historical futility. The 25-year-old left-hander faces the offense with the lowest wOBA and eighth highest strikeout rate with a lefty on the hill. Detmers' ranking is towards the bottom of Monday's rankings because the algorithms ignore recency bias. However, in this instance, paying heed to Detmer's September exploits is warranted.

          What you may have missed on Sunday

          • New York Mets SS Francisco Lindor returned to the lineup yesterday, but he left the game in the bottom of the second inning. Lindor has been dealing with lingering back soreness for a few weeks. He aggravated things on Friday night, forcing him to miss Saturday's contest. Lindor is scheduled for an MRI today. Is not known whether Lindor will be able to play tonight when the club hosts the Washington Nationals. If unable, Luisangel Acuna will likely fill in at shortstop.

          • Pittsburgh Pirates SS/OF Oneil Cruz left yesterday's game in the seventh inning due to a stiff ankle. Cruz is transitioning from shortstop to the outfield, where he slipped, injuring his left ankle. Initially, he was able to stay in the game but had to leave when it became an issue. Cruz's availability for tonight's road date with the St. Louis Cardinals is unclear.

          • Seattle Mariners OF Victor Robles hurt himself while hustling out a ground ball in the fourth inning of yesterday's matinee. He remained in the game but left in the seventh. Robles was seen limping around the clubhouse after the game. His status going forward is unclear. Losing Robles would be a big blow to fantasy managers, especially those in category-based leagues in a tight race in stolen bases. Last week, Robles hit .545/.630/.682 with six swipes.

          • A day after announcing that RHP Tyler Glasnow will not pitch again in the regular season, Los Angeles Dodgers manager reported the same for LHP Clayton Kershaw. Like Glasnow, Kershaw needs the Dodgers to enjoy a deep postseason run to take the hill again this year.

          • Cleveland Guardians OF Steven Kwan missed his third game in a row as he's still experiencing mid-to-low back tightness. Imaging over the weekend revealed no structural damage, so Kwan remains day-to-day heading into tonight's opener of an integral four-game home set against the Minnesota Twins.

          • Colorado Rockies 2B Brendan Rodgers did not play yesterday, due to a tight hamstring. The club doesn't believe the injury is serious, with a chance Rodgers can return to action tonight when the Rockies embark on a seven-game homestand.

          • The Toronto Blue Jays revealed that OF Daulton Varsho is nursing lingering shoulder soreness, explaining his absence from the lineup for the three-game weekend series against the Cardinals. The Blue Jays are off today then begin a series in Arlington against the Texas Rangers. Varsho's availability is unclear.

          • Nationals SS CJ Abrams missed his third consecutive game yesterday as he continues to experience shoulder soreness. However, Abrams was available to pinch hit, so there is a chance he returns tonight for a road date with the Mets.

          Everything else you need to know for Monday

          • Congratulations to those making the finals in standard ESPN head-to-head leagues. The two-week championship commences with a 10-game docket, beginning at 6:40 PM ET with the Cleveland Guardians hosting the Minnesota Twins in a key AL Central matchup. The Twins are starting RHP Pablo Lopez while the Guardians will give the ball to LHP Matthew Boyd. Boyd (44.9% rostered) has helped the Guardians open the series a top the division with a 2.18 ERA and .91 WHIP since returning from Tommy John surgery. The Twins have average numbers facing lefties, so Boyd is a viable option in season-long formats but he's risky in head-to-head formats, especially those with games started or innings limits. There is plenty of time to find more favorable options.

          • Boyd checks in as the second highest ranked streaming option, with only Washington Nationals RHP Jake Irvin (20.3% rostered) ahead. However, like Boyd, Irvin is a risky option on a slate not set up to find pitching gems. Irvin has a road date with the New York Mets. The righty has pitched well at times this season, but the Mets have playoff aspirations, and at this time of the season, the rule of thumb is favoring players and teams in the playoff chase. That said, the Mets struggled facing righties over the second half. Safer options should emerge over the rest of the season.

          • Those feeling compelled to test the slate should consider St. Louis Cardinals RHP Andre Pallante (2.2% rostered) for his favorable home tilt with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pallante has been effective in his swingman role this season, though lately he's struggled with control, walking five in each of his prior two outings. However, the Pirates are one of the least patient teams in the league while fanning the eighth most facing right-handers. Both contribute to the fourth lowest wOBA versus right-handers.

          • Betting tip of the day: The New York Mets have won 21 of Sean Manaea's 29 starts. He's been credited with 11 of those victories. The club is favored tonight when they open a series at home against the Washington Nationals. The Mets are heavy favorites and Manaea has pitched into the seventh in eight of his last nine starts. Take Manaea to get the win (+120).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Monday