Spring games begin Tuesday -- at least the ones that pit major league teams against one another -- and with them come spring stats, your first numerical representations of player performance since October.
Fantasy owners have a way of overreacting to the statistics themselves, but what spring training is for, at least for our purposes, is to get reads on players rather than numerical measures. Oh, the stats sometimes matter -- K-to-walk ratio, isolated power -- but the one-size-fits-all advice is to discard them all.
Instead, every spring I compile a list of players I'm most likely to watch, from a skills rather than stats standpoint. These are players whose values might most significantly change as a result of spring developments, depending upon how they address the concerns listed.
You'll notice that obvious names aren't listed, as injury risks like Cliff Lee and Troy Tulowitzki could give us a firmer read on their health with just one or two games' worth of evidence, nor are players like Xander Bogaerts, who won't receive the volume of consistent playing time that I claim he needs in order to finally break through at the plate. If it's not important to watch several of the player's games this March, he's not on the list.
Here are my top nine names for 2015:
Masahiro Tanaka: Perhaps more than any other player, Tanaka is the one whose every single pitch I'll be watching this preseason. He's entirely a guess, and that's because of the injury risk. He's on the comeback trail from a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament, and many assume that any moment, it'll snap and he will require Tommy John surgery. But who's to say the worst-case scenario will arrive tomorrow ... or on May 1 ... or this season at all? Tanaka's pitch selection and effectiveness could provide hints, specifically his willingness to rely upon a splitter he used 25 percent of the time overall and 42 percent with two strikes in 2014. If he's even slightly beneath those numbers, it could signal he is overcompensating for the injury, which for me would be a red flag. The Tanaka we want to draft -- the 30-start, sub-3.00-ERA, 200-K model -- is the one showing zero limitations during spring games. Again, it's not the results (the stats) -- it's pitch selection and effectiveness.
Yasmany Tomas: This spring will be the first time I actually get to see him, outside of his 16 at-bats during the 2013 World Baseball Classic. I don't doubt his power, but just how patient is he? Tomas had a 7.7 percent walk rate during his Cuban career, but we project him for 6.0 percent rate while ZiPS forecasts merely 4.4 percent. His patience will dictate his batting average and probably also his power ceiling -- is it 20 or 30 homers -- and let's also not forget that he has to prove he can handle the defensive chores of third base.
Manny Machado: He has had consecutive seasons prematurely ended by knee surgery, and last year, he got off to a terribly slow start, batting .236/.285/.332 in his first 50 games after missing the Baltimore Orioles' first 25 contests while rehabbing. After that, though, Machado went on a tear, batting .344 with .242 isolated power in his final 32 contests, which bodes well for a future breakthrough. But just how different is his tale this spring compared to last? For one, Machado is expected to play in Grapefruit League games, which is a significant improvement, but it'd be nice to see him hitting with the kind of authority he exhibited in the latter stages of his 2014. Otherwise, he'll again look like the kind of player to let go on draft day, but target via trade in May.
Wil Myers: His 2014 was one to forget, and after returning from a wrist fracture, he couldn't seem to square anything up, his line drive rate a pitiful 11 percent, lower than his infield pop-up rate (14 percent). Though he landed in a ballpark that's awful for power, at least the change of scenery could do Myers some good, especially if he clicks with new San Diego Padres hitting coach Mark Kotsay, their seventh in the past 11 seasons. What I'm hoping for is more consistent contact from Myers, and some pop: a home run or four, a healthy number of total bases and/or several hard-hit line drives or fly balls. Final spring stats rarely matter; they might somewhat in Myers' case.
Javier Baez: Speaking of contact, Baez needs to show he's capable of making any contact, let alone consistently. His 41.5 percent strikeout rate last season set a new major league record among players with at least 200 plate appearances, and then he struck out more than 40 percent of the time during his Puerto Rican winter league stint. Sure, he hit nine home runs for the Chicago Cubs, another two during the winter and profiles as a 30-homer candidate in the majors, but he badly needs to show greater patience, as well as more success against fastballs. Without some hint of improvement, he'll be a risk to bat .200 or below, or perhaps be demoted midseason.
Jake Odorizzi: His addition of "Thing 2" -- a changeup/splitter hybrid modeled off teammate Alex Cobb's "Thing 1" -- was one of the storylines of 2014 spring training, and perhaps his weight gain of 17 pounds as a result of an exercise-and-diet regimen to improve his core strength will be a storyline of this year's. What is important to watch is whether Odorizzi's pitch gains effectiveness, or if his strikeout rate overall rises from its 22.4 percent number in his final 19 starts, during which time his ERA was 3.51. He's one of the few pitchers ranked outside the top 50 with a legitimate chance at a top-25 starter season, so long as he gives us reason this spring to expect that big a breakthrough.
Ryan Braun: I still think that, somewhere in there, the .290-plus-hitting, 30-plus-homer version of Braun still exists. The question is, did the cryotherapy procedure on his right thumb fix what ails him? Spring training is the first chance we'll have to get that answer, and if he's showing little trouble swinging the bat, he could be a sneaky top-20 performer at the potential cost of a mere third- or fourth-round pick.
Pedro Alvarez: Oh, if only he had been able to make more than one mere pinch-hitting appearance in the Pittsburgh Pirates' final 30 games last season. At the time, Alvarez had swatted three home runs in four games after being shifted to first base, his probable position this season and one that could be less physically taxing. He is capable of 30-homer power, but what will his playing time look like? Corey Hart beckons to serve as a straight platoon partner, and any extended slump by Alvarez could result in worse. We'll get that answer during spring training, but from a performance standpoint, he could sure use a big March, one in which he hits curveballs and sliders as effectively as he did during the 2012-13 seasons combined (15 home runs).
Michael Wacha: Proof that he's fully healed from the stress reaction in his shoulder that cost him nearly three months of 2014 is the obvious reason he's on the list. The not-so-obvious reason is that Wacha, after his September return, was far more conservative with the changeup: He threw it only 14 percent of the time, compared to 19 percent before he was hurt, and the pitch was substantially less effective when he threw it following his return. I need to see Wacha throwing his changeup back near the one-out-of-every-four-offerings rate he had in 2013, and throwing it as effectively as he did that season. Without it, I can't begin to make the case for him as a top-30 starter.