Every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, we pose a question to a panel of ESPN fantasy basketball experts to gauge their thoughts on a hot topic.
Today's contributors are ESPN Fantasy's Eric Karabell, Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe.
Draymond Green (No. 27) currently sits just above Robert Covington (No. 30) on the Player Rater (averages). Is Covington a better fantasy investment going forward than Green? Will both finish in the top 30?
Kyle Soppe: I'm a big Covington believer and think he is a bigger part of The Process than most realize, but I'm taking Green here with confidence. My train of thought here is simple: The Warriors know that a fantasy-friendly version of Green helps them win games, while the 76ers are still in the process of determining their best way to win basketball games.
I expect Covington to hold the edge on Green in 3s and points, two of the easier categories to fill, while Green figures to hold the edge in blocks and assists. I think both are top-50 players moving forward, with Green roughly maintaining his current rank and Covington regressing along with his team a bit.
Eric Karabell: Covington is likely playing a bit over his head in terms of 3-point percentage and efficiency, but his role on the 76ers as more than just a defender is clear and plenty valuable. His emergence into a terrific fantasy option is legitimate. I view Covington as a slightly better fantasy investment in roto than Green because, unless it's a points league, I still find it tougher to roster a player who can't even score in double-digits on a consistent basis. Green is more of a statistical stocking-stuffer overall, even as his numbers and minutes are off a bit from last season, but I'll still take the player trending upward and in a more conventional fashion for fantasy managers.
As for whether each player finishes among the top 30 on the Rater, I'll say no. Even with the many open looks provided by the Ben Simmons-Joel Embiid combination, Covington is likely to drop off a bit in field goal percentage and overall 3-pointers, while Green doesn't seem like he even wants to shoot lately, and I have some concern about durability after so many years of extended seasons. I'll say they're more like top-40 fantasy options in roto.
Jim McCormick: As I saw in person last night, Covington has been due for some negative regression in 3-point efficiency. We shouldn't deny that "RoCo" is taking a gaudy 7.4 3-pointers per game and that his elite defensive rates have proved sustainable over time, thus I believe he's a strong candidate for a top-30 fantasy finish. For some context, I think we can use Otto Porter Jr.'s finish at 31st overall on the Player Rater last season as a precedent for the value of Covington's rare profile.
Even as Green is taking the fewest shots per game over his past four seasons, he's still my preferred fantasy investment for the rest of the season of this versatile set of forwards. This has less to do with any negatives about Covington's profile and more to do with the bankability of Green's production. This rings especially true since no player in Basketball Reference's database has averaged at least 3.2 3PG, 1.6 SPG and 0.7 BPG, and the Sixers' 3-and-D maven is currently hitting all these milestones.
Green, however, has a massive advantage in assists and a sizable lead in blocks and is one of the rare peers of Covington in regards to deflections and steals. Both are atypically productive on both sides of the ball.
Simply put, Green has been producing at a top-25 level for years now -- he was 22nd last season on the Player Rater with entirely similar numbers to this season save for his steal rate. Both players are poised as difference-makers on defense, but Green has the higher offensive floor.