At this wizened stage, I have one remaining, go-to Valentine's Day move: the power of empathetic disruption. Or in English: I spring happy surprises.
I place myself in The Current Mrs. Cregan's Air Force 1s. Actively map out her current emotional needs. And then move with purpose to meet those needs in unexpected ways, at unexpected moments. I will wake The Current Mrs. Cregan up at 2 a.m., pretending to be in a state of emergency, then give a Valentine's gift. I will give Valentine's gifts in July. There is a Valentine's gift I hid in her glove compartment two years ago that she has yet to find.
Much of my non-fantasy professional bandwidth is invested in the same left-brain/right-brain activity. I write horror films engineered around unhappy surprises. I make TV commercials engineered to open with unhappy surprises and conclude with happy surprises.
I am about to unhappily surprise myself. By doing the exact thing I have advised friends, fellow writers and fantasy experts one gazillion times: defensively address a small criticism of a recent insight. It is almost always better to move on to your next insight.
(My decades-old compadre The Talented Mr. Roto can confirm all of this. Alas, he did not leave a forwarding address.)
How many of the players dealt last Thursday, after a week of an adjustment period, will undergo a significant shift in their fantasy value?
I'm talking about the top 150 Player Rater players... the player pool size for a 10-to-12-team league. (BTW, I told you 40-ppg Cam Johnson was an apparition.)
And to be charitable: the number of to-150 players not for the season, but over the last month.
The mean would be two. Saddiq Bey will get dinged. Josh Hart may get a mid-sized boost. I reserve judgment on Mason Plumlee's rest-of-season prospects.
In terms of the players who switched jerseys? Great NBA storylines. Just not many impactful top-150 player fantasy valuation shifts. Irving was playing lights-out before he was dealt... and was lights-out last night. I can't wait to see what Mike Conley does in Minnesota... but don't foresee a big fantasy change.
I can't really reliably predict anything about your Los Angeles Lakers. I like a lot of their moves NBA-wise. Fantasy-wise, I see timeshares.
But some players who did not get traded will undergo a shift in ROS fantasy value.
My years-long Kenyon Martin Jr. fantasy obsession will be rewarded in a reliable, consistent manner... on a night-in, night-out basis.
Any San Antonio Spur on your wire averaging more than 25 MPG deserves your attention, especially Malaki Branham and Zach Collins. (Maybe keep an eye on Devonte' Graham.)
The logjam at center in Detroit has created a low-post miasma. A timeshare of highly annoying fantasy proportions. But a timeshare that could eventually boost Jalen Duren, James Wiseman or Isaiah Stewart at some point (most likely Wiseman, for save-face purposes.)
When coupled with The Ben Simmons Experience, the logjam at the wing in Brooklyn inspires one to predict "meh." But in terms of impact players, again, Mikal Bridges' value should emerge unscathed.
Once ambulatory, Kevin Durant's per-game fantasy value will not undergo a radical shift. However, I believe Durant's total ROS value gets a slight bump.
For the sole reason that he has more to play for. He suddenly has more incentive.
And playoff seeding suddenly means much, much more. When Irving Irvinged his way to Dallas... he took the Nets' tangible we-can-win-the-East-upside with him. Brooklyn's better-than-puncher's-chance at a title vanished.
The move to Phoenix reanimates Durant's tangible title chances. So now you will see a highly-incentivized Durant for the fantasy duration. And if you're in a league that has playoffs? Just focus on what impacts the rest of the fantasy regular season.
Because the endgame of the NBA season, the final two weeks of box scores that determines who wins your playoffs?
That's a totally different animal. A singular situation unto itself.
The NBA regular season endgame has a cattywampus fantasy valuation dynamic all of its own.
Let's focus on the next six weeks.
Don't get too hung up on per-game value. We are now operating in a narrow window. Post-All-Star Weekend, only a quarter of the fantasy season remains. And if you're prepping for the playoffs, you want to mine the wire for ROS keepers, not streamers.
Which is why total value means more. The incentive to play through -- night-in, night-out -- means more.
This means in Phoenix, Durant's total value gets a little nudge, because Durant plays through more nagging injuries. Plays a couple more back ends of back-to-backs.
Oh, and BTW? Happy Valentine's Day.
For HR reasons, I can't really say "I love you," but I will say, "I highly appreciate your devotion to this column."
Your devotion is about to be rewarded! Because I typed those last 800 words just to set up this next sentence.
ROS, by a Grand-Canyon-wide margin, the largest shifts in fantasy value are generated by shifts in franchise-wide incentive.
Don't get hung up on the moves that just happened. There wasn't much change in single-player valuation. (And do not get hung up on the buyout market.)
Get hung up on how the deadline re-positioned and incentivized teams to alter their approach to achieve franchise-wide goals.
Those changes, those shifts in incentive, are of paramount importance.
Because for the duration, shifts in incentive impact the top 150 players in a profound, holistic way. Meaning that these shifts affect everyone up and down the roster.
In obvious ways (lineup changes, prioritizing rookies, injury shutdowns) and subtle (changes in Pace, expanding or shrinking rotations, shifts in load management.)
And thanks to the Play-In Tournament, the flattening of lottery odds (the worst couple of teams now don't have a huge advantage in ping-pong balls), and the re-engineering of free agent rights/contracts?
The incentive dynamic itself has undergone a radical change.
What's the difference between hosting a first-round playoff series and having a 10.5% chance of drafting Victor Wembanyama?
Seven games in the loss column. Seven little games. Seven results that could tangibly occur for whatever reason, for whatever team... taking them from hosting a playoff series against the fifth seed to having the fifth-best odds at drafting a generational talent who could tilt the balance of power in the NBA for the next decade.
The Phoenix Suns are the current fourth seed in the Western Conference. If their season ended today at 31-27, they would host the 5th-seed Mavericks... who are 31-28.
Let's take a trip to one of my annual favorite web destinations: tankathon.com.
The Orlando Magic, at 24-34, currently has the fifth slot in the lottery. Compressed in the Magic's wake, and filling out the rest of the currently projected lottery? A clutch of teams presently hugging the NBA middle: Indiana, the Lakers, Chicago, Washington, Toronto, Oklahoma City, Portland, Utah and Golden State.
Four wins -- max -- separate these teams.
The top of the lottery offers flattened odds. The top/bottom three teams have a 14.0% chance at Wembanyama. The fourth team has a 12.5% chance.
This is also key right now... because those four teams look locked into the top four slots. (But yes, their order could shift.) Outside of the top four slots, the odds get steeper.
So Golden State, at 29-28, only has a 0.5% chance at Wembanyama. But the Lakers at 26-32... have a 7.5% chance.
These are paper-thin margins. Margins that will seismically affect ROS fantasy player valuation. Because sooner than later, these teams in the middle will decide which goal makes sense: Play-In or Ping-Pong.
And as many of you are already thinking? Yes. Then there is the added wrinkle that many of these middle-rans do not own their 2023 first-round pick (the Lakers). Or that their pick is only protected to a certain extent (the Bulls, the Wizards.)
All of these factors affect incentive. Playing time. Shutdowns. Seeing what teams have in their younger players.
Look two moves ahead of whatever's being discussed today. Look at the lottery odds. Think longterm. Move with purpose.
And Fantasy Basketball Love is real. So Happy Valentine's Day.