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I believe that at some point in the early 2030s, I'll watch Mike Evans' induction speech at the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He's that special. He's the only player in NFL history to start his career with at least eight straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons. He has been a Pro Bowler on four occasions in eight seasons, a second team All-Pro in another and is a Super Bowl champion.
I say all that to establish a baseline of just how highly I regard Evans as a player and how difficult it is to admit right now that he is epitomizing the most difficult dilemma in fantasy football this season: the superstar talent who is not producing in fantasy football and yet you're too scared to bench said player in fear of the bounce-back game.
But consider where Evans ranks among all wide receivers over the past six weeks:
Catches per game: 4.0 (T31st)
Receiving yards per game: 45.6 (37th)
Fantasy points per game: 8.6 (51st)
Weekly finishes in the top 30 at WR: 0 (his best finish is WR34)
Evans hasn't scored a touchdown in that stretch. Heck, he hasn't scored a touchdown since Oct. 2!
Evans' value over the course of his illustrious career derives from many things, but one thing you can almost always count on has been touchdowns and boom games. In the three seasons prior to this one, Evans posted 35 receiving touchdowns, the most of any player in the NFL across those seasons. In that same stretch, he posted 14 games of at least 20 fantasy points, seventh most among all wide receivers.
He has surpassed 10 fantasy points just once over the past five weeks, mustering a total of 10.4 points back in Week 10.
Let's get back to the talent part of this equation, as I don't want the numbers to tell an incomplete story: Mike Evans is still a star. The same skill set that has made him the player he is has not faded away. That much I'm sure of.
It's the offense he's playing in right now that has become his fantasy kryptonite.
A quick look at the passing yardage leaders shows Tom Brady is fourth in the NFL with 3,585. That part might scream high-octane passing attack, but it's wrong. Brady is averaging a measly 6.2 yards per attempt this season, 31st among qualified quarterbacks and the worst in his career. Why so low? Consistent pressure from opposing pass rushes (at least partially due to the worst rushing attack in the NFL) has turned the Bucs' only offensive approach into an extreme version of dink and dunk.
The Bucs have targeted running backs on 113 attempts this season, the second most by any team in the NFL. Chris Godwin has become an extension of the running game, as he's doing a TON of heavy lifting at or near the line of scrimmage, leading to a career-low (by far) 9.6 yards per catch.
Between the style of the passing offense and the fact that Tampa Bay can't finish drives (the Bucs are averaging just 17.2 points per game this season), Evans' fantasy value has taken a nosedive. His Week 15 assignment is the Bengals, who over the past three weeks have not allowed a receiving touchdown to a wide receiver and have yielded just 27.0 fantasy points/game to opposing wideouts, fifth best in the NFL during that stretch.
It's hard to call Evans a lineup lock right now, as he checks in at WR28 for me this week.
Here's more of what has caught our attention around the NFL heading into Week 15 action.