Contract-year players poised to exceed fantasy expectations

Targeting players in a contract year might initially seem like a savvy venture for fantasy football managers. After all, players in their final contract year could have extra motivation to perform at their best, aiming to secure new deals or impress potential suitors in free agency. This increased drive could lead to improved statistics and higher fantasy point production, right?

After analyzing statistical production from the past decade, the variability was too significant to draw a firm blanket correlation between on-field performance and playing on an expiring contract, though it shouldn't be dismissed. Most of the emphasis will obviously be on each player's individual situation, team dynamics and predictable stats for the position.

That said, let's highlight eight players who find themselves in great situations -- with the contract year narrative being the cherry on top of the ice cream sundae. (Note: Players listed in order of current overall ADP.)

Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

No. 2 overall (RB1)

Ekeler isn't just one of the hardest-working players in the NFL, he's also one of the smartest. His relentless dedication to self-improvement -- physically and mentally -- is evidenced by the unique trajectory of his career. Most undrafted free agents don't end up as starters who lead the league in touchdowns in back-to-back campaigns.

Justin Herbert targeted his RBs at a league-high 24.9% clip last year, but that rate will probably decrease with new OC Kellen Moore coming to town. Although Moore is likely to highlight Herbert's cannon and ask him to stretch the field more regularly, he's not going to eliminate his QB's favorite safety valve. Interestingly, when Moore was leading the Dallas offense (before Mike McCarthy took over), the Cowboys recorded the 10th-most RB targets in 2020. The volume will be there for a running back as talented as Ekeler. His reliable hands, route savvy, efficiency as a rusher and nose for the end zone will command robust offensive opportunities.

"This season will be one of the most impactful seasons I've ever had," Ekeler said. "There is so much on the line for me. I wouldn't want it any other way. I've put the utmost amount of pressure on myself every season. This season is no different. Everything in my future depends on me playing well and being the best I can be."

I have no doubt he'll deliver. -- Loza

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

No. 15 overall (RB6)

Taylor's lack of a contract extension this offseason and subsequent trade request leave his situation murky in Indianapolis, which is transitioning to a new system under new head coach Shane Steichen. Taylor was limited by injuries last season, but he was fantasy's RB1 in 2021 (20.8 fantasy points per game) and led the NFL in rushing attempts (332), rushing yards (1,811) and rushing touchdowns (18). While Taylor is unlikely to reach these statistical heights in 2023, particularly due to the rushing ability of rookie QB Anthony Richardson, he still is projected to finish as a high-end RB1. Among running backs with 150-plus rushing attempts in each of the last two seasons, Taylor has the fifth-highest success rate, an important advanced metric that helps statistically quantify how well a running back can read blocks and identify open running lanes. New offensive line coach Tony Sparano Jr. should maximize his unit's potential, which bodes well for Taylor as he seeks a career-defining contract. -- Moody

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

No. 28 overall (WR13)

Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase make up, without question, one of the most dynamic WR duos in the league. Only four squads produced two top-20 fantasy wideouts in 2021 and 2022. The Bengals and the Seahawks made the cut in back-to-back campaigns. For his part, Higgins has gone over 1,000 yards for two straight seasons. When Chase was on the field (26 games), the former Clemson standout averaged 4.7 catches and 67.3 receiving yards per game. That number jumped to 6.5 receptions per game and 92.7 receiving yards per contest when Chase was sidelined (four games). Assuming Chase stays healthy for the entire season and Higgins maintains the averages noted above over 15 efforts, he'll be good for at least 70 grabs, 1,000 receiving yards and 7 TDs.

Higgins' presence at training camp -- and his QB's recent remarks -- suggest the 24-year-old's role on the Bengals is secure. Even with Joe Burrow (calf strain) potentially missing the rest of the preseason, Higgins' high floor and potential ceiling make him a solid pick in the third round of 12-team leagues. -- Loza

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings

No. 40 overall (TE3)

Upon learning the Chicago Bears re-signed tight end Cole Kmet to a lucrative four-year contract worth $50 million, it immediately struck me that Hockenson's price tag just went up. Hockenson averaged 6.1 targets and 3.7 receptions in seven games with Detroit in 2022 before seeing those averages rise to 8.6 targets and 6.0 receptions over his last 10 games following a midseason trade to Minnesota. He also caught 10 passes for 129 yards in the Vikings' playoff loss to the Giants. Despite the hype around rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison, Hockenson is projected as the Vikings' second-most-targeted player, behind Justin Jefferson. A stellar 2023 season would lead to the most significant payday of Hockenson's career. Don't overlook him in drafts if you missed out on Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews. -- Moody

Mike Evans, WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers

No. 57 overall (WR25)

Evans is the only receiver in league history to begin his career with nine consecutive 1,000-yard seasons (only Jerry Rice has more consecutive 1,000-yards seasons at any point, with 11) and has averaged an impressive 8.6 targets and 16.2 fantasy points per game played in the NFL. He and the Buccaneers are still negotiating a contract extension, according to reports, with the goal to get the deal done before the end of training camp. Evans is currently a nice value as the WR25 in our live draft trends. Some fantasy managers are fading Evans because of the quarterback situation in Tampa Bay, but that is a mistake. Evans has thrived with numerous QBs, including Tom Brady, Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick. He can be viewed as a low-end WR2 with upside to outperform projections. -- Moody

Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings

No. 89 overall (QB11)

Cousins, who was selected 100 picks after Robert Griffin III in the 2012 NFL draft, has never oozed flash or upside. Instead, he has built a long-lasting and lucrative career by being reliable. Cousins has missed exactly two regular-season games since being named a starter in 2016. He also has finished inside the top 15 fantasy QBs in six of his past seven campaigns.

Undoubtedly, Justin Jefferson's arrival in Minny super-charged Cousins' passing numbers. The (nearly) 35-year-old Cousins has cleared 4,200 passing yards, 30 total scores and remained a top 10 fantasy producer for three consecutive seasons. Those numbers were further boosted by Kevin O'Connell's up-tempo playcalling in 2022, as Cousins recorded his highest passing yardage as a Viking (4,547).

There's plenty working in Cousins' favor heading into 2023: a top-10 offensive line, a top-15 strength of schedule, a dynamic group of playcallers and familiarity with O'Connell's scheme. Captain Kirk figures to throw for at least 4,300 yards and 30 TDs this go-around. He has one of the highest floors of any player at the position and is likely to "earn the right" to retire in Minnesota. -- Loza

Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans

No. 104 overall (TE11)

Schultz emerged as a consistent chain-mover in Dallas, clearing 55 catches and 550 yards for three consecutive seasons. He also finished inside the top 10 in terms of fantasy points per game over his past two campaigns. On a one-year deal worth $9 million, the Stanford product figures to work as the Texans' TE1 and C.J. Stroud's primary security blanket. Houston targeted six tight ends for a total of 141 looks in 2022. Jordan Akins, Pharaoh Brown and O.J. Howard -- none of whom are returning to the team -- accounted for nearly 70% of those opportunities (97 total targets). Schultz has drawn at least 89 looks for three straight seasons and is coming off a year in which he managed a target share above 18% (TE10). Stroud won't be as efficient as Dak Prescott, but Schultz's volume figures to remain robust. The 27-year-old is in line for nearly 90 looks and should close out the year with around a 57-581-5 stat line. -- Loza

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans

No. 242 overall (QB30)

This could be Ryan Tannehill's final season in Tennessee, especially after the Titans made the decision to draft Will Levis in the second round in April. Tannehill, 35, averaged 19.1 fantasy points per game from 2019 to 2021, but injuries and the departure of A.J. Brown led to a dip in fantasy production (13.9 PPG) in 2022. However, Tannehill still ranked fifth in yards per attempt, displaying accuracy in the red zone and on deep passes. Now, with DeAndre Hopkins as the No. 1 receiver, Treylon Burks returning and a new offensive coordinator who doesn't want to rely so heavily on Derrick Henry, Tannehill is poised for a comeback campaign as he looks toward his next contract and should exceed projections. Keep an eye on him if you play in a superflex league. -- Moody

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