Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
My weekly matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, listing all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Adjusted fantasy points allowed (or Adj. FPA) reflects how far above or below players' weekly fantasy averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable, a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring, unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Atlanta Falcons). His breakthrough campaign has reached another peak point over the past three weeks. During that time, he ranks fifth in both fantasy points among quarterbacks (64.34) and passer rating (111.7), seventh in Total QBR (70.8) and 10th in off-target rate (12.1%). For further context, Darnold faced two of the league's toughest matchups in the Chicago Bears (21.10 points, Week 12) and Arizona Cardinals (19.60, Week 13) in that time span. He now draws one of the league's most favorable matchups in the Falcons, who, despite holding Justin Herbert to 7.98 points last week, rank fourth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past five weeks (4.7) and eighth in the category for the season (1.8).
Others to like:
Matchup to avoid: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (at Detroit Lions). A plenty productive quarterback -- his 18.6 fantasy PPG across nine fully healthy (read: 90%-plus snap rate) has been exceeded by only six quarterbacks -- Love has his work cut out for him in this important divisional matchup, as the Lions have held quarterbacks to the fewest points per passing attempt (0.30) this season.
Sunday QB to avoid: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (vs. Buffalo Bills). The Bills have held quarterbacks to a league-low 10.90 fantasy points per game over the past six weeks.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: D'Andre Swift, Bears (at San Francisco 49ers). He's coming off back-to-back stinkers, but bear in mind that both came against bottom-three positional matchups both for the season and in the past five weeks. In three games against bottom-eight matchups, using seasonal adjusted fantasy points allowed, Swift has been held beneath 10 fantasy points each time, whereas in each of his two games against top-eight matchups he exceeded 20 points. The 49ers fit into the latter category, their mediocre depth within their defensive interior exacerbated by a barrage of injuries. They've seen 11 running backs exceed 12 points against them this season, six of them in the past four weeks alone.
Others to like:
Isaac Guerendo, 49ers (vs. Bears)
Matchup to avoid: Bijan Robinson, Falcons (at Vikings). This shouldn't be construed as a clear call to bench Robinson -- it's tough to do that to a player who has averaged 22.3 fantasy points and 23.5 touches over the past seven weeks -- but for those with a wealth of running back depth or examining daily fantasy lineups, mind his steeper-than-usual downside. The Vikings have been the toughest defense against running backs over the past five weeks, and third toughest for the season, with Jordan Mason (17.4 points, Week 2), Jahmyr Gibbs (32.0, Week 7) and Kyren Williams (22.6, Week 8) the only three to exceed 12 points against them. Robinson faced the similarly stingy Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3, averaging 1.9 yards per carry for 13.2 fantasy points, and his Falcons' struggling quarterback, Kirk Cousins, brings a risk of sinking his team into a negative game script.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Khalil Shakir, Bills (at Rams). He has led the team in targets in each of the past three games, has a team-leading 27% target share in the past six, and has averaged a plenty-respectable 13.0 fantasy points in that time, demonstrating his rising stock within the Bills' passing game. Considering he tends to run most of his routes from the slot (66% for the season), he's in good shape for another prospective fantasy-WR2 output in Week 14. The top two wide receiver point totals afforded by the Rams this season came from players who ran a majority of their routes from the slot, Jauan Jennings (46.5 points, Week 3) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (37.0, Week 9). Additionally, in the past five weeks, the Rams have surrendered the second-most points per target to wide receivers as a whole (2.40).
Others to like:
Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers (at Chiefs)
Jordan Addison, Vikings (vs. Falcons)
Matchup to avoid: Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins (vs. New York Jets). Don't be fooled by the Jets' mediocre numbers defending quarterbacks, as much of that is the success of such mobile opponents as Josh Allen, Kyler Murray and Anthony Richardson. Against wide receivers, they've been one of the best, limiting them to a league-fewest 26.4 fantasy points per game, and just two instances of a 20-point performance (second fewest), and 1.58 points per target (fourth fewest). To be fair, Hill did score 25.4 points in a Week 12 game against the Jets last season, one in which their elite cornerback trio of Michael Carter II, Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed all played, but on paper this is one of the lowest-floor matchups Hill can draw.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Cade Otton, Buccaneers (vs. Raiders). Though this midseason standout has fallen quiet over the past two weeks, totaling 10.0 PPR fantasy points on 10 targets since the team's bye week, the Raiders are as strong a bounce-back matchup as a tight end could draw. Over the past six weeks, they've allowed a league-leading-by-far 27.1 points per game to the position, with five different tight ends scoring in excess of 11 points.
Matchup to avoid: Travis Kelce, Chiefs (vs. Chargers). In a week with six teams on bye, there really isn't any proven tight end who's a must-sit, though Kelce is one to avoid if you're deep at the position or playing daily fantasy. The Chargers have been the second-toughest defense against tight ends for the season in terms of both adjusted fantasy points allowed (minus-4.2) and fantasy points per target (1.39), and only four times all season have they surrendered 10-plus points to the position. To be fair, Kelce was one of those four (15.9, Week 4), but he required nine targets to get there. He'll be hard-pressed to repeat it.