The Draft-Day Manifesto: Win your league by taking a weekly approach

By all accounts, the Flintstones were in trouble.

Fred, Wilma, Barney and Betty needed rescuing, and as Steven Spielberg -- yes, that Steven Spielberg -- looked at the pile of scripts on his desk, he felt he was nowhere close to the answer.

It was the early '90s and Amblin, Spielberg's production house, had acquired the rights to bring "The Flintstones" to the big screen. The original director -- Richard Donner of "Lethal Weapon" and the Christopher Reeve "Superman" movies fame -- had fallen out a while ago and the project had bounced around town a bit before finally landing with Amblin Entertainment. Script after script after script was commissioned ... and rejected. Eight different scripts had come and gone and still, Spielberg felt he was no closer to getting the movie off the ground.

It was fall of 1992 and time was running out. Steven wanted John Goodman to play Fred, but due to John's commitments to the hit sitcom "Roseanne," John only had May to July of 1993 to film the movie. And so, with no script he liked and the sundial ticking, Spielberg went about finding a new director to attach to the project.

Someone who could help shape a direction for the film and oversee a script.

It was, as they say, "a good gig."

In fact, it was a great gig. OK, sure, you're probably not worried about what you'll wear to the Oscars when you do that movie, but so what? Working with Spielberg? On what would be a big summer movie based on one of the most well-known and beloved animated shows of all time? A movie that you know will get made, will have a big budget and will have tons of support behind it? Getting to see the fun, wild and vivid world of Bedrock come to life, complete with dinosaurs? Did I mention working with a living legend? Or the dinosaurs? Did I mention them?

Great. Gig.

And when there is a great gig available, everyone is interested. And so, as the story that was told to me goes -- Steven met with lots of directors, all well-respected, all accomplished, all well-known in Hollywood.

One of the names on the list of potential directors to meet Steven might have surprised some. It's not that Brian Levant wasn't successful. A former sitcom writer, director and producer, Brian had done over 400 episodes of various hits, including "Happy Days" and "Mork & Mindy." He had recently made a foray into directing, helming "Problem Child 2," which made $33M on a $12M budget, and then later "Beethoven," a family film that cost just $18 million to make and ended up grossing more than $147 million worldwide. This is how studios measure success, and both movies had been done at Universal, where Amblin was housed, so that connection helped as well.

But still. This was to be a summer tent-pole movie. This was "The Flintstones." This was SPIELBERG. He was, by most accounts, a long shot to get such a job.

And so, one by one, they walked down the long hallway to meet with Mr. Spielberg. I'm sorry. MR. STEVEN SPIELBERG. As close to royalty as you get in Hollywood. Wanting to impress the man, director after director pitched their view of what the movie could be. "I see Fred as a Christ figure." "Bedrock is an allegory for the bleakness of humanity." EW.com reported one take was a "Grapes of Wrath-type thing where Fred and Barney leave town during a depression to look for jobs and wind up in a trailer park."

Each take more complex and filled with symbolism than the next. Except for Brian Levant, who just shrugged at Spielberg and said, very simply, "Come on. It's 'The Flintstones.' I'll make it funny."

And that, my friends, won the day.

I spoke with Brian recently about his memories of that meeting, and he explained that the issue everyone was having was easy to spot. "They were trying to reinvent the wheel. I was like ... It's 'The Flintstones.' The wheel works fine. You don't need to reinvent anything!"

An avid collector of pop culture memorabilia (which you see on Brian's Instagram @BrianLevant), Brian had brought in some of his prized Flintstones memorabilia collection, including some rare items. Brian's passion and enthusiasm swayed Spielberg, as did Brian's understanding of the brilliant simplicity that made the show so popular.

"I got the job by embracing the purity of it," Brian said. "The fundamentals, if you will."

In fantasy football and in life, we often get into our own heads, overthinking and not seeing the quarry for the stones. Or something like that. The direct and obvious approach is often the correct one.

"It's 'The Flintstones.' I'll make it funny."

Which brings us slowly, once more, into the 19th annual edition of the Draft Day Manifesto. Howdy, partner. Pull up a boulder and make yourself comfortable. Can I get you a Brontosaurus burger?

I have been writing the Manifesto for close to two decades now, and as always, there are some things in here that remain unchanged from year to year. The basic blueprint to construct a championship team, some of the strategy and, as I was just saying to some of the extremely happy RotoPass.com subscribers, there will also be some over-the-top, self-serving promotion.

But there's also updated research, new analysis and at least one new joke. (Editor's note: That wasn't it.)

Let's start with the most important piece of advice I can give you about fantasy football.

At a fundamental level, it's all about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win on a weekly basis.

That's it. That simple. Everything leads back to that. Every draft pick, waiver move, potential trade, start/sit decision and more.

Everything.

I write it every year because it's not only true, but because it's very easy to lose sight of. Exactly one year ago, no one thought Cam Newton would play 15 games and still finish as the 17th-best QB in fantasy. No one thought a fourth-round rookie QB would not only start every game for Dallas, but would finish as the sixth-best QB. That Jay Ajayi, who was literally left at home for the Dolphins' first game, would end up with three 200-yard rushing games. That Todd Gurley would play all 16 games but score just 1.2 points more than Bilal Powell. And fewer than Isaiah Crowell. That a wide receiver would lead Green Bay running backs in fantasy points. That Rishard Matthews would outscore Allen Robinson. That Cole Beasley would outscore A.J. Green. And Dez Bryant. Or that Kyle Rudolph would have more points than Rob Gronkowski and Tyler Eifert combined.

You can't predict the future. I definitely can't predict the future. No one can predict the future. So all you can do is minimize risk and give yourself the best odds to succeed. If you take just one thing away from this article, make it that. If you take two things away from this article, make it that and the fact that my Fantasy Life App is not only free, but an amazing community of fantasy football fanatics there to help you win. (I mean, hey, I already got the RotoPass plug in.)

As you start the draft prep process, you will be inundated with a vast amount of data, news, stats and analysis. I see it every year as people get overwhelmed by the sheer volume of information and get way too deep into their own heads. The key is to sort through all that and not get lost or try to reinvent the wheel. It's "The Flintstones." Make it funny, you know?

Realize there is more than one path to success, but at the core of them all is to trust yourself and your process.

With Goodman's hiatus coming up quickly and more than 6,000 sets, props and costumes needing to be built to bring Bedrock to life, time was running very short. So Brian went back to his sitcom roots, hired a bunch of writers to sit in a room with him for a few weeks, and they all collaborated on a new script. Ideal? No. But it got the job done. It got the movie officially green-lit, they made John Goodman's production window, and when all was said and done, the movie made more than $341 million (which would be about $700 million in adjusted box office today), plus an insane amount on merchandising, and all for a budget of about $46 million.

It was "The Flintstones." He made it funny.

Whether you liked the movie, hated it or never saw it doesn't really matter. By the standards Hollywood sets, it was a huge success and certainly had a lasting effect on Brian's life. Whether it is Hollywood, Fantasy Football or life, getting to the essence of the problem you are trying to solve and then, you know, doing that, is a recipe for success.

And that's what we're going to do. Let's acknowledge the irony about a crazy-long article that has a goal of simplifying your draft day experience, but that's what we're going for here. A set of rules, guidelines and stats that ideally, once you absorb them, make draft day a simple, enjoyable first step towards winning your league.

Before we start, one last thing. As I mentioned, I have written this Manifesto for many, many years. And in a lot of places, the framework and themes are similar. So, with a tip of the cap to Brian Levant, I'm going to try to simplify the column this time around. Theory will still be here, but "the math" behind it can be seen in any of the previous year's versions. Last year's methodology can be found here.

Still a Manifesto, just a slimmer, more efficient one built for 2017. It's eco and mobile friendly, baby!

So here you go, you list-loving internet. The 25 best tips for draft day.

1. Just repeating this one more time because it's that important ...

At a fundamental level, fantasy football success is all about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win on a weekly basis.

Every decision you make should be influenced by this. Whom to draft, avoid, start, bench, trade, waive, pick up or anything. All of it.

You can't predict the future. It's more about "what's most likely to happen." And then do that.

Dak Prescott had six rushing touchdowns last season. In the last 15 seasons, the only QBs with multiple seasons of five-plus rushing touchdowns are Michael Vick, Cam Newton and Tim Tebow. What's most likely to happen?

Dallas' signal-caller could and should be great in 2017, but will he be as great?

Jameis Winston had six rushing touchdowns in his first year, but just one in his second.

What's most likely to happen?

Drew Brees, for instance, has nine straight seasons of 30-plus touchdown passes.

Over the past five years, New England has 9.8 percent more rushing touchdowns than any other team in the NFL.

Greg Olsen, Antonio Brown and Demaryius Thomas are the only players with at least 70 receptions in each of the past four years.

Again: What's most likely to happen?

Using a little research and basic logic, you can take a moment to think about any particular situation from every angle. What was behind the player's success or failure? Was it a fluke or is it repeatable? Once you figure that out, the answer on what to do is fairly easy. It won't always work out, but like everything else in life, if you play your cards right, it'll work out more often than not.

2. There is no right way to win

They all work. And they all don't. I'm speaking of "draft strategies." Value based drafting, Zero RB, RB/RB, etc. They all work and they all don't. We've looked at this every year.

Here's the list of most common players on 2016 fantasy playoff teams on ESPN.com (I cut it off at 50 percent):

There are some first-rounders in there, most notably David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott. But there are also a lot of players who greatly outperformed their average draft position (ADP), like Matt Ryan or LeGarrette Blount, or were waiver-wire pickups, like Davante Adams or Jordan Howard.

Let's look at this list from another perspective.

Here's last year's first round based on ESPN ADP, along with the percentage of teams owning that player that made the playoffs:

1. Antonio Brown 44.9 percent
2. Odell Beckham Jr. 35.3 percent
3. Adrian Peterson 7.6 percent
4. Todd Gurley 33.7 percent
5. Julio Jones 41.5 percent
6. Ezekiel Elliott 57.5 percent
7. DeAndre Hopkins 30.9 percent
8. David Johnson 66.9 percent
9. Devonta Freeman 56.3 percent
10. Rob Gronkowski 27.76 percent

Obviously, just after Week 13, some teams were still hoping they might get something out of Adrian Peterson or Rob Gronkowski. By and large, though, whether you went WR, RB or TE in the first round last year, you had a chance to make the playoffs in your league. Even those crushed by Peterson's injury.

3. Know your league. Inside and out.

It seems obvious, but you'd be amazed at how many people don't know all of the rules of their league. You should know them inside and out, backward and forward, because that knowledge is what you'll use to (legally!) exploit those rules and construct the best team possible on draft day. Is there an injury slot(s) in addition to the normal roster positions, like a DL slot in baseball? If so, you can be more aggressive with talented but injury-prone guys. Are you required to leave the draft with a full lineup? I say you should have to, but if not, don't bother with a kicker or a defense and use those two slots for extra position picks. You can waive them just before the season starts or do a 2-for-1 trade to grab a D/ST and K just before Week 1.

What's your roster size? How often can you make moves? Do tight ends get 2 PPR? Any other weird scoring rules? Does your defense score points for holding opposing teams to certain yardage totals, or is it yardage totals and scoring totals? Every rule in your league shapes a player's value. Travis Kelce has more value in overall ranks in a league that awards 2 PPR for TE than a normal PPR league. Someone like Brian Hoyer has value in a 2-QB league but shouldn't be drafted in a 10-team, 1-QB league. You can't evaluate players unless you know their value, and you can't determine value unless you know the rules they are being judged against.

4. Remember: The roster you construct on draft day is not what you are stuck with for the whole season

Unless it's a "best ball" type league, in which you make no moves, of course. As you saw from the list of common players on playoff teams, you'll need the Robert Kelley and Dak Prescott types to get you to the promised land (or, at least, an invite to the dance, he said, mixing sports metaphors).

You do not need to leave draft day with a "perfect" lineup. What you do need to do is leave with a roster that has some linchpins, some upside and enough flexibility that you are prepared for whatever fantasy disaster is thrown your way. Do NOT panic during the draft if a position plays out in such a way that you feel you had to reach for a player.

Because ...

5. It's a WEEKLY game

Another tip that seems obvious, yet every year I see people ignoring it in either their analysis or research.

While our game takes place over a full season, the truth is it's actually 13 (and hopefully more) one-week contests. So while you hear a lot in the preseason discussion (and I'm guilty of it, too) about how many touchdown passes or fantasy points or yards or targets or whatever someone had last season, the truth is there aren't a lot of players who need to be in your lineup every single week. It'd be great if they were all David Johnson, but consider someone like Cameron Meredith, who was ninth in total PPR fantasy points from Weeks 13-17 last season, with 81.28 (Tom Brady scored 79.76 in the same time frame).

On draft day, you are putting together a squad that needs to do one thing: outscore one other (predetermined) team during a certain week. Knowing that there will be bye weeks, injuries and many other surprises during the course of the season, what's the best collection of players you can put together on draft day to give you a foundation (that you will add to) to have the best shot at success every week?

To put it a slightly different way, what's the best group of players you can collect that will give you the most potential fantasy points on a given week, with an underlying tenet being that you DON'T have to start the same team every week and -- thanks to bye weeks -- can't.

Here's a loosey-goosey-math example of what we are talking about. Last season, the Browns, Cowboys and Panthers were the three worst defenses by ESPN standard fantasy scoring against the TE. If you punted the tight end position in the draft and simply (effectively) streamed the top-producing, widely available TE against these three porous defenses each week of the season, you got 172 standard points. Rob Gronkowski's total in his past 17 games: 166.3 standard points.

It's not always that easy, as the right player has to be available and you have to choose correctly, but hopefully the point has hit you over the head here: By changing your tight end starter each week last season and choosing reasonably correctly, you would have had a viable starting tight end, in terms of end-of-the-season points. It just would have been a different guy every week. I'm not saying it would have been easy, but even the fact that there WAS a way to basically stream together a "waiver-wire tight end" last year that would have outproduced a healthy Gronk should tell you something.

Not that I nailed every call, obviously, but 217 players made at least one appearance on Love/Hate last season, meaning there was at least a legitimate reason to consider those players that week, regardless of whether they actually produced.

Weekly. Game.

6. So, how do we win that weekly game?

Score 93.7 points per game in non-PPR leagues. For the third straight season, standard fantasy owners should be targeting 93-94 points on a weekly basis if they want to be successful on a consistent basis. (At least that's the number for 10-team ESPN leagues.) Some weeks, 83 will get it done, if you play a team that tanks, and some weeks 140 won't, if you play a red-hot squad. But in the game of what's most likely to happen, score 93.7 points every week and you'll win more often than not. You'll win enough to get into the playoffs in an ESPN standard league. In previous years, readers have asked what that number is for PPR leagues, and the answer is 119.5.

Here's the positional breakdown for the average playoff team in 2016 (i.e., what total you needed each week from your RBs, WRs, etc.):

Here's the total positional breakdown for the average playoff team in 2016 (i.e., what you needed total each week from your RBs, your WRs, etc.).

OK, so using that table, you can see that you should be counting on roughly 23.9 points per week total in non-PPR and 30.2 points per week in PPR from your running backs. In PPR play, basically any back with a pulse would have worked if you had paired them with Le'Veon Bell (26.5 PPG) or David Johnson (25.5) last season, so you can't really mess that up. But if you don't end up with one of the first two picks, here are some combinations that worked last season, just to give you an idea:

Ezekiel Elliott (21.7) and Chris Ivory (8.6)
DeMarco Murray (18.4) and Jeremy Hill (11.8)
Jordan Howard (15.3) and Mark Ingram (15.1)
Devonta Freeman (17.8) and Todd Gurley (12.4)

On the non-PPR side of things, the combinations that put you in the best spot to succeed last year are a bit different. For running backs, you're targeting 23.9 points per game and last year you could've had ...

LeGarrette Blount (14.1) and Todd Gurley (9.7)
Jay Ajayi (12.6) and Lamar Miller (11.4)
Jordan Howard (13.4) and Jonathan Stewart (10.7)
Latavius Murray (12.5) and Spencer Ware (11.5)

There are many different combinations that would have netted you in the neighborhood of 23.9 or 30.2 points per game from your running backs. Of course, this is not foolproof, as big games happen and thus make the per-game production a bit deceiving (especially for an up-and-down, often touchdown-dependent guy like Jeremy Hill). And clearly, Zeke plus whomever worked for many as well, but for a general idea, this is the type of production you needed weekly and, if history is any indication (it has been in this neighborhood for three years or so), this should work this season as well.

On the receiver side of things, our table tells you that you need 30.4 points per game from your tandem in PPR. Here are some examples of what that could've looked like last season:

Antonio Brown (20.5) and Ted %&#* Ginn Jr. (10.0)
Odell Beckham Jr. (18.5) and DeSean Jackson (12.0)
T.Y. Hilton (17.1) and Terrelle Pryor Sr. (13.3)
Doug Baldwin (15.9) and Amari Cooper (14.5)

And the receiving tandems that produced roughly the desired per-game totals (19.5 fantasy points per game) for non-PPR included ...

Brandin Cooks (10.5) and Rishard Matthews (9.2)
Dez Bryant (10.0) and Michael Crabtree (9.4)
Michael Thomas (10.9) and Jarvis Landry (8.6)
A.J. Green (12.0) and Sterling Shepard (7.5)

Again ... simply examples. There are a ton of different ways to get the magic numbers and 2017 could be very different, but these magic numbers have remained reasonably stable over time and serve as a good barometer for what you are chasing. Maybe you give up a few points at running back and pick up a few at receiver. Regardless, if you can pencil in roughly 94 points a week in non-PPR leagues or 120 in PPR, you're much more likely than not to be in a good spot when all is said and done.

7. A helpful trick during your draft

Before your draft, take the chart I listed in No. 6 and let's say you're in a PPR league.

In your draft, you wind up with a high pick and you select Antonio Brown, if for no other reason than it gives me a chance to rerun this photo from last year. Don't judge me. If you had an article and a photo of you and Antonio Brown, you'd run it, too.

Anyway, you look at our handy ESPN projections and see that we project Brown for 302.8 points this season in PPR, or 18.9 per game.

So now, you redo the chart to look like this:

QB 18.2
RBs 30.2
WRs 11.5 + Antonio Brown
Flex 12.1
TE 11.3
K 9.2
D/ST 8.1

So now you know you're chasing just 11.5 at WR2 in PPR. Pretty easy to get to. But say the second round comes and you don't like any of the non-WR options available. So you decide to take Amari Cooper at the end of the second. Cooper is projected at 14.2 points per game, which means you've exceeded your needed total by 2.7.

So now you do this:

QB 18.2
RBs 27.5
WRs Amari Cooper, Antonio Brown
Flex 12.1
TE 11.3
K 9.2
D/ST 8.1

You've taken the 2.7-point "surplus" and taken it off of your RB total, giving you a better view of what you need to reach your target number. The idea that ESPN or any set of projections you use is going to 100 percent nail them is obviously false, but this is a way to quickly gauge your team construction process as you progress through a fast-moving draft.

8. Range of outcomes: yearly

I have discussed this in much more depth in previous Manifestos, but it's always good to have a quick(ish?) refresher, so I want to do that here. As you prepare for your draft or auction, you need to have an opinion on every player. You don't need to have stats or projections memorized, but just a general sense of how much you like that player in comparison to other players. Even if it's just someone's rankings that you trust, some way to differentiate between players as the clock ticks down on your pick.

Here's one way that I evaluate players and I'd like you to think of this as well: Every single player I roster has to have a range of outcomes that are one of two things:

1. Players with high floors during the course of a season.

2. Players who could wind up as an elite option at a position in any one given week.

Let's break that down, starting with players with high floors during the course of a season.

Too often, people evaluate a player only in terms of what he could do in a positive manner, the best-case scenario for that player. People also tend to have recency bias, meaning they think only about how the player performed in the recent past, not looking at a larger body of work.

Is there a chance Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Jordy Nelson, Mike Evans or others could finish ahead of Antonio Brown this season? Of course. But I have Brown as my No. 1 wide receiver because his floor is insanely high. Barring a catastrophic injury, he's going to be one of the elite guys this season.

Given a brand-new team, offense and QB, plus his injury history, the range of outcomes for Alshon Jeffery this season is much wider. Could be a stud, could fall well short of his current WR11 ADP. Sometimes the risk is worth the reward and as the draft goes on, I am definitely willing to take more risks, but overall, early on I try to get players with a narrow range of yearly outcomes.

Obviously, as much as possible, I want players with a high floor. And not just a high floor for the season, but a weekly high floor. That consistency, week in and week out, is what wins championships. Not every player is a stud, but knowing you can count on a solid seven points a week from someone is more valuable to me than a DeSean Jackson type, who will score 12 points one week and then two the next in non-PPR. It's still 14 points over two weeks, but I'd rather get the seven every week. That consistent production at as many roster spots as possible is what will help you plan the rest of your roster to figure out the best way to get to 94 points each week. I find Tristan H. Cockcroft's Consistency Ratings to be incredibly helpful for this.

Remember when I wrote earlier of having an opinion on players? Well, I want you to at least have an opinion on the range of outcomes for every player, too. Even if you just take a rankings sheet and quickly go down the list making notations like "wide," "medium" or "small." Doing this exercise will help reshape how you view each player and guide you through the draft.

Now, there's a finite number of players with a high floor and/or a starter's level of consistency. So if I'm not drafting a high-floor guy, I'm drafting a "potentially elite in any one week" guy.

9. Range of outcomes: weekly

So, as you move toward the middle, and especially later, rounds of your draft or auction, I want you to stock your team entirely with players who could potentially have a high weekly ceiling.

Again, this is a weekly game. So, obviously, every single week you are going to look at all the players available to you -- on your roster and in the free-agent pool -- and decide on a starting lineup.

As obvious as it seems, that's actually a huge step that gets overlooked a lot in fantasy. Because it's not just enough to have a good player, you need to know when to start that player.

In Week 1 last year, DeAngelo Williams had six receptions, 171 total yards and two scores on his way to a 35.10 PPR game. With Le'Veon Bell suspended, Williams was a no-brainer. That same week, undrafted rookie RB Jalen Richard of the Raiders had 95 total yards and a score for 17.5 PPR points, much of it coming on one big run. No one got to enjoy that game on their fantasy team. There would have been no way to know to start Richard that week.

Let's spin that forward to this year. In PPR leagues, Duke Johnson Jr. is currently going in the 13th round and Darren McFadden is going in the 14th. Give me Darren McFadden all day every day. Johnson is a nice player and there are reports he'll be even more involved in the passing game this season. OK. Johnson was basically worth 9 points a game last season.

Meanwhile, McFadden is going to be completely useless this year ... unless something happens to Ezekiel Elliott. And if that were to happen, McFadden would be a top-10, no-brainer start for any week Zeke missed.

Guys like Johnson are always available on your waiver wire, so I'd much rather fill out the back end of my roster with guys like McFadden. He potentially has an insanely high ceiling in specific weeks. Those are the guys I want. Kareem Hunt is going one pick after Johnson. Just stop. Hunt all day, every day for me. There is upside there that just doesn't exist with Duke.

Yes, there will be the Ty Montgomerys of the world who will emerge, but many of the future stars of the 2017 season will be drafted in the later rounds. So with your final few bucks at the grocery store of fantasy football, use them on lottery tickets, not something practical like toothpaste.

10. So about those first few rounds ...

I asked Jacob Nitzberg of ESPN Stats & Info to do a deep dive into last year's ESPN ADP for me and man, did he ever. I've said for a long time that "you can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it." In other words, as anyone who went with Adrian Peterson last year will tell you, choose wrong in the first and it's hard to recover. But then you see what David Johnson did last year and, well, you kinda can win your league in the first round.

Ask anyone who went with DeAndre Hopkins instead of David Johnson last year and he/she will tell you (while crying, of course) that blowing that first-round pick can crush you.

So, I wanted Jacob just to look at positions from a macro level, in terms of how many players drafted in the top 20 last year finished in the top 20 at their position (in other words, starting caliber in a 10-team league).