How good do you feel about your fantasy crease this season? If you don't happen to have one of a handful of particular goaltenders, the answer is probably not optimistic.
Based on current season fantasy points per 60 minutes (FPP60), games remaining for each club and each goaltender's timeshare percentage in their team's crease, only four goaltenders are projected to accumulate more than 100 points from this stage forward.
And of those four, fantasy managers could only feel really good about Andrei Vasilevskiy and Semyon Varlamov.
The other two are Philipp Grubauer and Marc-Andre Fleury. With Grubauer, we still have to be at least a little concerned about him still getting 86.8 percent of the Avalanche's minutes in the crease after Pavel Francouz returns (although it is looking increasingly like Francouz isn't close, so perhaps Grubauer can be lumped in with the two safe goalies). With Fleury, he could easily maintain his 68.3 percent timeshare with Robin Lehner, but Fleury's 5.71 FPP60 is not reasonably sustainable.
So, unless you have Varlamov or Vasilevskiy (or maybe Grubauer), you are probably still doing some form of goaltender shopping. With that in mind, here are some of my favorite less-popular picks for still having potential to go on a run this season. We are looking for the right combination of being available (either through free agency or trade) in fantasy leagues, putting up solid stats or having a solid history, as well as the potential to get enough minutes going forward.
Mackenzie Blackwood, G, New Jersey Devils: It still feels like we don't have enough of a sample from Blackwood yet to feel super confident about this season, but the Devils are back into the swing of things and looking just fine. Blackwood has posted a ridiculous 4.94 FPP60 in his six starts and he currently projects to be just shy of that 100-fantasy-points-remaining threshold. But key to that projection is the fact that he's only shouldered 46.9 percent of the Devils minutes in the crease this season. With an early season injury behind him, he should be the workhorse going forward. He's rostered in 90 percent of ESPN leagues, so you would be looking to the trade route here.
Mike Smith, G, Edmonton Oilers: Available in most leagues, the 38-year-old Smith has posted terrific stats on a per-minute basis, but has a very limited sample size so far. His 6.71 FPP60 is entirely unsustainable, but it doesn't have to be if his workload can increase. He's played just 22.1 percent of the Oilers minutes in the crease with Mikko Koskinen carrying the lion's share. Of course, Koskinen's per-minute fantasy numbers are atrocious and there is a good chance we see more of Smith going forward. Even if Smith's FPP60 was cut in half, a doubling of his workload would put him among the top 12 projected goaltenders.
Ilya Samsonov, G, Washington Capitals: Highly sought after at the draft table for his potential, Samsonov's start to this campaign has been washed out by COVID. But he's back on the Caps roster again and will be looking to pick up where he left off last season as the starter of the future. Vitek Vanacek has put up some fantasy points in Samsonov's absence, but they've been through sheer quantity of work (he has as many fantasy points as Jake Allen, but has played twice as many minutes). Rostered in 70 percent of ESPN leagues, you could potentially scoop up Samsonov in a shallower league, but trading is the more likely scenario.
Petr Mrazek, G, Carolina Hurricanes: This scenario would all depend on how quickly he can return from thumb surgery. Hurt Jan. 30, Mrazek was playing the majority of the Hurricanes minutes in the crease and putting up monster numbers. He's now available in about 50 percent of fantasy leagues and, depending on when he returns, would stand a chance on charging up the ranks once back. James Reimer has admirably filed in, but his FPP60 continues to slip with each passing week. We are getting updates about Mrazek hanging around on the ice at practice, so maybe he can get back in time to make a fantasy impact.
Forwards on the move
Sean Couturier, C, Philadelphia Flyers (up eight spots to No. 45): Not only are Couturier and the Flyers back in action following a COVID break, but Couturier has been stacked on a line with the other two best Flyers forwards to date -- James van Riemsdyk and Joel Farabee. There are still a lot of Flyers forwards out for COVID protocol, but this is a good sign for how the Flyers build their offense going forward with Couturier as the main catalyst.
Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Winnipeg Jets (up 13 spots to No. 98): We are all hoping to see what the line would look like, admit it. Dubois played with Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler on Sunday, and the trio exploded. I doubt the Jets continue to stack these three at the top of the depth chart, but with a second line still featuring Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers and Paul Stastny, it's possible. Either way, Dubois is back and had his first big game as a Jet, which is a positive sign.
Mats Zuccarello, W, Minnesota Wild (enters ranks at No. 244): I mentioned him in last week's Forecaster as a potential add in hopes he can find his form in his second season with the Wild. If this weekend was any indication, there are good things to come. Paired up with rookie Kirill Kaprizov, Zuccarello had six points in two games.
Alexis Lafreniere, C, New York Rangers (enters ranks at No. 242): With Artemi Panarin taking a leave of absence and Mika Zibanejad looking lost, the opportunity is now for Lafreniere to either make his mark or be banished to become a post-hype sleeper a year from now.
Defensemen on the move
Adam Boqvist, D, Chicago Blackhawks (enters ranks at No. 222): Boqvist has slipped in and out of the top 250 already this season, as his potential role as the Hawks power-play quarterback has been in doubt while he missed time. But he seems settled back into the role again. This Hawks squad may be top heavy, but that top can get the job done -- especially on the man advantage. It's worth keeping Boqvist on your roster for the time being to see if he can start putting up some points.
Goaltenders on the move
Jacob Markstrom, G, Calgary Flames (down three spots to No. 38): Taking 13.2 fantasy points off of his totals in his last two appearances through negative accumulation, Markstrom then hit the press box with an injury. I'm not overly concerned for him to remain a top goaltending choice (especially given the discussion above), but the minus fantasy points are a good reminder that the Flames are in the same division as the Oilers and Maple Leafs and will see plenty of both going forward. With the way those offenses are playing this season, it behooves us to use caution when deploying Markstrom.
New to rankings
Adam Boqvist (No. 222), Kaapo Kahkonen (227), Mike Smith (232), Nico Hischier (233), Jeff Carter (237), Alexis Lafreniere (242), Mats Zuccarello (244), David Savard (248).
Just missed
Paul Stastny, Adam Lowry, Ryan Johansen, Tyler Bertuzzi, Pius Suter, Jaden Schwartz, Joe Thornton, Robby Fabbri, Jason Dickinson, Joonas Donskoi, Rickard Rakell, Pavel Zacha.
Dropped out
Max Domi, Matt Duchene, Mikko Koskinen, Antti Raanta, Vince Dunn, Dylan Strome, Cody Glass, Alexander Edler.
Fantasy hockey top-250 rankings
1. David Pastrnak, RW, Bos (RW1)
2. Connor McDavid, C, Edm (C1)
3. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, TB (G1)
4. Auston Matthews, C, Tor (C2)
5. Alex Ovechkin, LW, Wsh (LW1)
6. Steven Stamkos, C, TB (C3)
7. Leon Draisaitl, LW, Edm (LW2)
8. Mitchell Marner, RW, Tor (RW2)
9. John Carlson, D, Wsh (D1)
10. Brad Marchand, LW, Bos (LW3)
11. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Col (C4)
12. Victor Hedman, D, TB (D2)
13. Jack Eichel, C, Buf (C5)
14. Patrice Bergeron, C, Bos (C6)
15. Patrick Kane, RW, Chi (RW3)
16. Jonathan Huberdeau, LW, Fla (LW4)
17. Mark Scheifele, C, Wpg (C7)
18. Connor Hellebuyck, G, Wpg (G2)
19. Mikko Rantanen, RW, Col (RW4)
20. Mark Stone, RW, Vgs (RW5)
21. Philipp Grubauer, G, Col (G3)
22. Sebastian Aho, C, Car (C8)
23. Alex Pietrangelo, D, Vgs (D3)
24. Aleksander Barkov, C, Fla (C9)
25. Anze Kopitar, C, LA (C10)
26. Semyon Varlamov, G, NYI (G4)
27. Brayden Point, C, TB (C11)
28. Sidney Crosby, C, Pit (C12)
29. Max Pacioretty, LW, Vgs (LW5)
30. Blake Wheeler, RW, Wpg (RW6)
31. Kyle Connor, LW, Wpg (LW6)
32. Ivan Provorov, D, Phi (D4)
33. Charlie McAvoy, D, Bos (D5)
34. Nicklas Backstrom, C, Wsh (C13)
35. Roman Josi, D, Nsh (D6)
36. Patrik Laine, RW, Cls (RW7)
37. Alex DeBrincat, LW, Chi (LW7)
38. Cale Makar, D, Col (D7)
39. Jacob Markstrom, G, Cgy (G5)
40. Jeff Petry, D, Mon (D8)
41. John Tavares, C, Tor (C14)
42. Andrei Svechnikov, LW, Car (LW8)
43. Joe Pavelski, RW, Dal (RW8)
44. Jake Guentzel, LW, Pit (LW9)
45. Sean Couturier, C, Phi (C15)
46. Marc-Andre Fleury, G, Vgs (G6)
47. Gabriel Landeskog, LW, Col (LW10)
48. Jordan Binnington, G, StL (G7)
49. Darnell Nurse, D, Edm (D9)
50. Logan Couture, C, SJ (C16)
51. Frederik Andersen, G, Tor (G8)
52. Dougie Hamilton, D, Car (D10)
53. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, Edm (C17)
54. Brent Burns, D, SJ (D11)
55. Johnny Gaudreau, LW, Cgy (LW11)
56. Drew Doughty, D, LA (D12)
57. Taylor Hall, LW, Buf (LW12)
58. Jamie Benn, LW, Dal (LW13)
59. Elias Lindholm, RW, Cgy (RW9)
60. John Klingberg, D, Dal (D13)
61. Elias Pettersson, C, Van (C18)
62. Filip Forsberg, LW, Nsh (LW14)
63. Mika Zibanejad, C, NYR (C19)
64. J.T. Miller, C, Van (C20)
65. Igor Shesterkin, G, NYR (G9)
66. Morgan Rielly, D, Tor (D14)
67. Patric Hornqvist, RW, Fla (RW10)
68. Thomas Chabot, D, Ott (D15)
69. Tuukka Rask, G, Bos (G10)
70. Matthew Tkachuk, LW, Cgy (LW15)
71. Seth Jones, D, Cls (D16)
72. Mathew Barzal, C, NYI (C21)
73. Brayden Schenn, C, StL (C22)
74. Aaron Ekblad, D, Fla (D17)
75. Travis Konecny, RW, Phi (RW11)
76. T.J. Oshie, RW, Wsh (RW12)
77. Tyson Barrie, D, Edm (D18)
78. Artemi Panarin, LW, NYR (LW16)
79. Vincent Trocheck, C, Car (C23)
80. Adam Fox, D, NYR (D19)
81. Quinn Hughes, D, Van (D20)
82. Darcy Kuemper, G, Ari (G11)
83. Kailer Yamamoto, RW, Edm (RW13)
84. Tom Wilson, RW, Wsh (RW14)
85. Evgeni Malkin, C, Pit (C24)
86. John Gibson, G, Ana (G12)
87. James van Riemsdyk, LW, Phi (LW17)
88. Ryan Ellis, D, Nsh (D21)
89. Shea Theodore, D, Vgs (D22)
90. Jakob Chychrun, D, Ari (D23)
91. Anton Khudobin, G, Dal (G13)
92. Carey Price, G, Mon (G14)
93. Kris Letang, D, Pit (D24)
94. Victor Olofsson, RW, Buf (RW15)
95. Ilya Samsonov, G, Wsh (G15)
96. Ondrej Palat, LW, TB (LW18)
97. Jack Hughes, C, NJ (C25)
98. Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Wpg (C26)
99. Tomas Hertl, C, SJ (C27)
100. Alec Martinez, D, Vgs (D25)
101. Jacob Trouba, D, NYR (D26)
102. Brock Boeser, RW, Van (RW16)
103. Mackenzie Blackwood, G, NJ (G16)
104. Sam Reinhart, RW, Buf (RW17)
105. Brady Tkachuk, LW, Ott (LW19)
106. Nikolaj Ehlers, LW, Wpg (LW20)
107. Shea Weber, D, Mon (D27)
108. Ryan O'Reilly, C, StL (C28)
109. Tyler Toffoli, RW, Mon (RW18)
110. Ryan Pulock, D, NYI (D28)
111. Evander Kane, LW, SJ (LW21)
112. Rasmus Ristolainen, D, Buf (D29)
113. Chris Kreider, LW, NYR (LW22)
114. Kirill Kaprizov, LW, Min (LW23)
115. Teuvo Teravainen, RW, Car (RW19)
116. Bryan Rust, RW, Pit (RW20)
117. Carter Hart, G, Phi (G17)
118. Dustin Brown, RW, LA (RW21)
119. Nick Suzuki, C, Mon (C29)
120. Mathew Dumba, D, Min (D30)
121. Keith Yandle, D, Fla (D31)
122. Anders Lee, LW, NYI (LW24)
123. William Nylander, RW, Tor (RW22)
124. Robin Lehner, G, Vgs (G18)
125. Jordan Staal, C, Car (C30)
126. Rasmus Andersson, D, Cgy (D32)
127. Roope Hintz, C, Dal (C31)
128. Kevin Fiala, C, Min (C32)
129. Evgeny Kuznetsov, C, Wsh (C33)
130. Devon Toews, D, Col (D33)
131. Kyle Palmieri, RW, NJ (RW23)
132. Neal Pionk, D, Wpg (D34)
133. Erik Karlsson, D, SJ (D35)
134. Dylan Larkin, C, Det (C34)
135. David Perron, RW, StL (RW24)
136. Ryan Suter, D, Min (D36)
137. Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buf (D37)
138. Joonas Korpisalo, G, Cls (G19)
139. Zach Werenski, D, Cls (D38)
140. Bo Horvat, C, Van (C35)
141. Alexander Radulov, RW, Dal (RW25)
142. Josh Anderson, RW, Mon (RW26)
143. Mark Giordano, D, Cgy (D39)
144. Oliver Bjorkstrand, RW, Cls (RW27)
145. Denis Gurianov, LW, Dal (LW25)
146. Mikhail Sergachev, D, TB (D40)
147. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D, Ari (D41)
148. Colton Parayko, D, StL (D42)
149. Sean Monahan, C, Cgy (C36)
150. Anthony Cirelli, C, TB (C37)
151. Nick Ritchie, LW, Bos (LW26)
152. Torey Krug, D, StL (D43)
153. Cam Talbot, G, Min (G20)
154. Claude Giroux, LW, Phi (LW27)
155. Dominik Kubalik, LW, Chi (LW28)
156. Joel Farabee, LW, Phi (LW29)
157. Cam Atkinson, RW, Cls (RW28)
158. Damon Severson, D, NJ (D44)
159. Jake Muzzin, D, Tor (D45)
160. Timo Meier, RW, SJ (RW29)
161. Kevin Lankinen, G, Chi (G21)
162. Jean-Gabriel Pageau, C, NYI (C38)
163. Mike Hoffman, LW, StL (LW30)
164. Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Fla (G22)
165. Christian Dvorak, LW, Ari (LW31)
166. Carter Verhaeghe, C, Fla (C39)
167. Jakub Voracek, RW, Phi (RW30)
168. Nino Niederreiter, RW, Car (RW31)
169. Alex Tuch, RW, Vgs (RW32)
170. Miro Heiskanen, D, Dal (D46)
171. Andre Burakovsky, LW, Col (LW32)
172. Zach Parise, LW, Min (LW33)
173. Jordan Eberle, RW, NYI (RW33)
174. Brendan Gallagher, RW, Mon (RW34)
175. Jakub Vrana, C, Wsh (C40)
176. Kevin Hayes, C, Phi (C41)
177. Jaroslav Halak, G, Bos (G23)
178. Ryan Strome, C, NYR (C42)
179. William Karlsson, C, Vgs (C43)
180. Ryan McDonagh, D, TB (D47)
181. Samuel Girard, D, Col (D48)
182. Tomas Tatar, LW, Mon (LW34)
183. Jake Allen, G, Mon (G24)
184. Joel Eriksson Ek, C, Min (C44)
185. Elvis Merzlikins, G, Cls (G25)
186. Conor Garland, RW, Ari (RW35)
187. Mikael Granlund, LW, Nsh (LW35)
188. Pavel Buchnevich, RW, NYR (RW36)
189. Boone Jenner, C, Cls (C45)
190. Jordan Kyrou, C, StL (C46)
191. Josh Norris, C, Ott (C47)
192. Ty Smith, D, NJ (D49)
193. Duncan Keith, D, Chi (D50)
194. Josh Morrissey, D, Wpg (D51)
195. Nazem Kadri, C, Col (C48)
196. Viktor Arvidsson, RW, Nsh (RW37)
197. Chris Driedger, G, Fla (G26)
198. Phil Kessel, RW, Ari (RW38)
199. Adrian Kempe, C, LA (C49)
200. Jared Spurgeon, D, Min (D52)
201. Juuse Saros, G, Nsh (G27)
202. Nick Schmaltz, C, Ari (C50)
203. Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, StL (RW39)
204. P.K. Subban, D, NJ (D53)
205. Blake Coleman, LW, TB (LW36)
206. Adam Larsson, D, Edm (D54)
207. Jaccob Slavin, D, Car (D55)
208. Pavel Francouz, G, Col (G28)
209. Petr Mrazek, G, Car (G29)
210. Erik Gustafsson, D, Phi (D56)
211. Max Comtois, LW, Ana (LW37)
212. Chandler Stephenson, C, Vgs (C51)
213. Anthony Mantha, RW, Det (RW40)
214. Jonathan Marchessault, LW, Vgs (LW38)
215. Brock Nelson, C, NYI (C52)
216. Alex Iafallo, LW, LA (LW39)
217. Jonas Brodin, D, Min (D57)
218. Tyler Myers, D, Van (D58)
219. Scott Laughton, LW, PHI (LW40)
220. Ryan Graves, D, Col (D59)
221. Justin Schultz, D, Wsh (D60)
222. Adam Boqvist, D, Chi (D61)
223. Noah Dobson, D, NYI (D62)
224. Miles Wood, LW, NJ (LW41)
225. Clayton Keller, C, Ari (C53)
226. Brian Elliott, G, Phi (G30)
227. Kaapo Kahkonen, G, Min (G31)
228. Andrew Copp, C, Wpg (C54)
229. Martin Necas, C, Car (C55)
230. Jordan Greenway, LW, Min (LW42)
231. Calvin Petersen, G, LA (G32)
232. Mike Smith, G, Edm (G33)
233. Nico Hischier, C, NJ (C56)
234. Brock McGinn, LW, Car (LW43)
235. Linus Ullmark, G, Buf (G34)
236. James Reimer, G, Car (G35)
237. Jeff Carter, C, LA (C57)
238. Nick Foligno, LW, Cls (LW44)
239. Evgenii Dadonov, RW, Ott (RW41)
240. Mikael Backlund, C, Cgy (C58)
241. Jack Roslovic, C, Cls (C59)
242. Alexis Lafreniere, LW, NYR (LW45)
243. Zach Hyman, LW, Tor (LW46)
244. Mats Zuccarello, RW, Min (RW42)
245. Kasperi Kapanen, RW, Pit (RW43)
246. Justin Faulk, D, StL (D63)
247. Brandon Tanev, LW, Pit (LW47)
248. David Savard, D, Cls (D64)
249. Evan Bouchard, D, Edm (D65)
250. Connor Murphy, D, Chi (D66)