We are far enough a long this season that using some in-season individual sample sizes doesn't feel like it will skew numbers too much. That can allow us to do some different projections now that we have a healthy dose of games played in the current campaign.
One of my favorite sub-samples for projecting is blending "What are you doing this season?" with "What have you done for me lately?" Basically, we are averaging a players fantasy points per game (FPPG) for the entire season with just the last month and then applying that value to their games remaining for a different look at projected remaining points. Here are a few that jumped out.
Mikko Rantanen, W, Colorado Avalanche: Second overall among skaters in projected remaining points using the blended method, Rantanen and the Avs have been on fire for a little more than a month now. Rantanen's 3.2 FPPG since March 2 is a rate that rivals that of what McDavid and Auston Matthews have done all season. For what it's worth, Nathan MacKinnon ranks fourth and Gabriel Landeskog ranks ninth using this method to project.
Alec Martinez, D, Vegas Golden Knights: Even though he was among my preseason favorites, I don't even think I noticed as Martinez quietly slipped into leading all NHL defensemen in fantasy scoring this season. His 92.3 fantasy points is not only first among defensemen, but fourth among all skaters. If you adjust for minutes played, it's not even close. Martinez is first among defensemen for fantasy points per 60 minutes (FPP60) by a wide margin. While he has 2.6 FPPG this season, he's also been doing it for us lately, with 2.7 FPPG since March 2. It goes to show that blocked shots are a sleeper category when they come in such massive amounts. And when a player can lead the league in blocked shots, and still help drive offense, the combination is rewarding.
Sidney Crosby, C, Pittsburgh Penguins: Quietly and humbly, Crosby has been building toward a solid finish to the season. As such, he ranks 23rd in this blended look at projected remaining points among skaters. His past month has resulted in an elevated 2.7 FPPG, while his season-long mark has been 2.3. The increase to production is split between when Evgeni Malkin was healthy and when Malkin was hurt, so there shouldn't be any concern about whether Malkin is present or not for Crosby to keep on a solid pace; He just had a slow start.
Sean Couturier, C, Philadelphia Flyers: Couturier has actually slowed down a tad in the past month, but his overall output has him ranked 38th among projected fantasy scorers in this blended list. He has remained somewhat impervious to the Flyers decline in the past month, remaining steady at 2.0 FPPG compared to his season-long 2.2. Generally speaking, Couturier is the rock for the offense and his linemates have tended to depend on who was hot at the time. When James van Riemsdyk and Joel Farabee were streaking, Couturier was with them. Now, he's being deployed with Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek. Either way, keeping his FPPG up while the rest of the team struggles is a positive sign for him running out the season.
Brent Burns, D, San Jose Sharks: As long as you view Burns production without the lens of his historical output, you should be satisfied with what he is doing. He actually ranks 12th among defensemen for projected remaining points in this blended method, partly thanks to an uptick in production to 2.2 FPPG during the past month. Before the last month started, he was only 1.8 FPPG for the season. These paces are nowhere near what we are used to for Burns, but he was projected for a decline this season, so top-12 for defensemen is arguably an acceptable outcome.
Fantasy Forecaster: April 5 to April 11
For now, the Canucks are slated to return from a COVID hiatus on Thursday. But we have learned already that such things can be extended. A longer delay would also impact the Flames, who are scheduled to have two of three games against Vancouver.
For those new to the forecaster chart, here are some explanations: "O" (offense), which is on the left for each game, and "D" (defense), on the right, matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup) and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's season-to-date statistics, their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played, as well as their opponents' numbers in those categories. The "Ratings" column lists the cumulative rating from 1 to 10 of that week's offensive ("O") and defensive ("D") matchups.
Team notes
Boston Bruins: A five-game week is what the doctor ordered for David Pastrnak to kick back into gear. He's only posting 1.8 FPPG during the past month, causing him to slip from earlier status as one of the elite three for FPPG with Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews. Three of the five games next week are against the struggling defense of the Philadelphia Flyers, which should provide ample opportunity for Pastrnak to start getting back on pace. Make sure you have Nick Ritchie and Matt Grzelcyk in your lineup for the increased workload. David Krejci has also been scoring at an increased rate of late and is in good position for a spot start in your lineup. Jaroslav Halak also warrants a start as Tuukka Rask in't 100 percent healthy (and is splitting time even if Rask is back).
Philadelphia Flyers: Also playing five times next week, there are a few places you can attack from a fantasy perspective to try to boost your points. First and foremost would be whoever lines up with Couturier. And, as mentioned, that is currently Giroux and Voracek, the latter of which is available in a third of ESPN leagues. Farabee and van Riemsdyk can probably be avoided with their slow production of late. Ivan Provorov is a lock for lineups, as always, but no one else from the defense is worth your time or attention. If you can afford the roster space, I'm intrigued by picking up Carter Hart - not to start, but to have on my team to see the outcome after this mandated rest period. Sent to the press box for his poor performance for the Flyers past two games, maybe the time out of the game did something for his approach. A condensed five-game week guarantees we see some of Hart and should provide a definitive answer for whether he can truly be pitched to the waiver wire for the remainder of the season.
Vancouver Canucks: Bench them all. Even if they return as scheduled from the current COVID hiatus, they have a two-game schedule on a week featuring some teams with five. Even a low-level play from the Bruins or Flyers with five games will probably outscore the best options from the Canucks.
Player notes
Vincent Trocheck, F, Carolina Hurricanes: Back in the Hurricanes lineup and skating with Andrei Svechnikov, Trocheck needs to be locked back into fantasy lineups. With three points in his first two games back, he's picked up right where he left off as one of the elite fantasy plays. It also brings Jesper Fast into play for deeper leagues as the third member of the line.
Jack Campbell, G, Toronto Maple Leafs: Act now! Campbell is absolutely showing up Frederik Andersen in the Leafs net and has already done enough to make a case for a timeshare even if Andersen were healthy. He's a perfect seven wins on seven starts this season, and wins are what drive the fantasy production for goaltenders. And yes, in his seven games he has scored 50.2 fantasy points compared to Andersen's 36.8 across his 22 starts.
Andrew Copp, F, Winnipeg Jets: We don't yet have clarity on the injury to Blake Wheeler, but there was plenty of concern about it taking him out of the Jets lineup for at least some time. Copp is likely on tap to be elevated into the top six and has shown more than adequate offense from the third line this season to make the move intriguing.