SOCHI, Russia -- Mexico takes on Germany on Thursday in the Confederations Cup semifinal in Sochi with more questions than usual surrounding Juan Carlos Osorio's starting lineup and formation. Germany's Joachim Low has changed up Die Mannschaft's formation during the tournament, employing a 3-4-2-1 or 3-4-3 with two wide players (usually Joshua Kimmich and Jonas Hector on Thursday) pushed fairly high up.
Hector stated in Wednesday's news conference that his team's tactic to stop Mexico will be to attack, to not let El Tri dominate the ball as it has so far in the tournament. Indeed, no team has had more average possession per game than Mexico. Osorio's primary dilemma will be whether to match Germany's formation and use a 3-4-3, keeping in mind that Mexico has switched regularly to three center-backs over the Colombian's time in charge.
The Mexico coach and players regularly talk of going "toe-to-toe" with the best national teams in the world. It'd be tempting for Osorio to use something along the lines of Low's formation, especially because Mexico's standard 4-3-3 can easily switch to a 3-4-3 with Miguel Layun shifted further forward.
The problem is that if Osorio does that, it'll likely mean the involvement of Rafa Marquez at the heart of the Mexican defense in the libero role, with Diego Reyes out of action due to injury. The 38-year-old isn't exactly the speediest player and with Germany's dynamic attacking line it would be a major risk, especially considering the Atlas captain has played only 44 minutes of competitive football since the beginning of March, having missed the end of the Liga MX season due to undergoing back surgery in April.
Reyes was in form and gave Mexico flexibility, with his ability to play at center-back, in the holding midfield role or at right-back.
If Osorio does go with three center-backs, it would be Nestor Araujo, Marquez and Hector Moreno. The midfield line would include Javier Aquino (or Jurgen Damm) on the right, Layun on the left and Hector Herrera and Jonathan dos Santos in the middle. The front three would be Carlos Vela on the right, Hirving Lozano or Raul Jimenez on the left and Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez up front.
The system would offer some flexibility. Araujo could shift over to right-back, Layun drop to left-back and it'd become a back four in a 4-3-3. If that happens, Vela would move to the left of midfield and Aquino would move forward into the forward three.
If Andres Guardado weren't suspended for the clash, things would likely be much clearer for Osorio. The midfield three of Dos Santos, Herrera and Guardado has been one of the most positive aspects of the tournament so far and he'd likely keep it.
The other option, therefore, for Osorio would be to stick with his preferred 4-3-3 and simply replace missing duo Guardado and Reyes. In that case, the team could be Guillermo Ochoa in goal, Layun at right-back, Araujo and Moreno at center-back and the inexperienced Luis Reyes (or possibly even Oswaldo Alanis) on the left of the defense.
In midfield, Herrera would play the holding role, with Dos Santos on the right and most probably Marco Fabian coming in to replace Guardado on the left.
Up front would be Vela on the right, Lozano, Aquino or Jimenez on the left and Hernandez in the center. The major issue is the lack of height and players that are decent in the air if only two center-backs are fielded, something Osorio takes into consideration.
There's plenty for the manager to think about in the countdown to kick-off against a national team he described Wednesday as an "example to follow."