Kiley McDaniel's 2022 National League team-by-team prospect rankings

Williamson, the main prospect in the Winker/Suarez deal from Seattle, just missed the Top 100. He has steadily improved to have an above-average four-pitch mix from the left side and some deception and craftiness as well; he could be a factor in the second half this year. Petty came from Minnesota in the Sonny Gray deal. He's a tricky eval -- I am normally low on triple-digit velo goofs from the prep ranks. What's different about Petty is that he has solid physical skills with solid feel, three pitches that flash above average, and, as a lower slot, primary sinker/slider type with big movement separation between those pitches, he has the secondary and intangible qualities that so many other hard-throwing prep righties lack. Richardson is a different sort -- a bit above average at everything but without a 60 on the scouting card, destined to become a fourth starter type. Ashcraft, a likely reliever with TJ in his past, is back to the high-octane stuff, sitting 95-97 mph with bat-missing lift and a plus slider. He has improved his starter traits and can now go multiple innings, but this is a loud-intro-music, blow-your-hair-back type of reliever.

Others of note

Friedl is a plus runner who plays a good center field and has an above-average hit tool; there isn't a ton of impact, but he should be a good reserve outfielder, maybe starter quality at some point. Miller was a solid hit-first prep catcher in the draft, with enough power and defense to project as a low-end everyday backstop. He played only three games last year due to a misdiagnosed illness that he has now luckily moved past. There's not much on the stat sheet right now, but the tools are still there and he's primed for a breakout, playing for an organization with an excellent track record on the risky subset of prep catchers: Tucker Barnhart, Tyler Stephenson, Devin Mesoraco et al.

Despite playing only 21 games above Low-A, Cerda was added to the 40-man roster because of his big raw tools and 17 homers in 2021. He's a plus runner now but probably settles in a corner, with plus raw power and solid patience, although his pitch selection and power approach can lead to contact issues. Solomon didn't pitch in 2021 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, but he was the hot name from the alternate site in 2020 before his injury. Back then, you could even squint and see a starter -- he was sitting 95-97 mph with bat-missing action and two plus-flashing breaking balls, along with the potential for command. Sanmartin is a totally different prospect but much closer to the big leagues: 25 years old, below-average velocity, lower-slot lefty. He sits 88-91 mph with guile and deception while a plus changeup is his best pitch. He has been around for a while, and even though he doesn't light up a scouting report, there's a chance he breaks camp as the No. 5 starter.

The top international signee from the most recent class is Cabrera. He has been a top-of-the-class name for years and fits broadly in the Noelvi Marte bucket -- a mature-framed, strong now hit/power combo that's a shortstop/third baseman tweener. That's the trajectory Cincinnati is hoping for. Bonnin is another power arm, with 95-98 mph bat-missing heat and a 55-to-60 grade breaker -- he could fit well as a reliever in the late innings. Torres was a draft-eligible sophomore at NC State and one of the true shortstops in the 2021 draft college ranks who had some offensive potential; I tend to think he'll be an average bat with below-average power -- likely a good utility type.

Milwaukee Brewers

No. 27 overall
No. 21 (tied) in quality depth (prospects better than 40 FV)
$108 million total value
32 players

1. Aaron Ashby, LHP, 50 FV (83rd in the Top 100)
2. Sal Frelick, CF, 50 FV (106)
3. Joey Wiemer, RF, 45+ FV
4. Tyler Black, 2B, 45+ FV
5. Brice Turang, SS, 45 FV
6. Garrett Mitchell, CF, 45 FV
7. Jeferson Quero, C, 45 FV
8. Jackson Chourio, CF, 45 FV
9. Ethan Small, LHP, 45 FV
10. Freddy Zamora, SS, 40+ FV
11. Felix Valerio, 2B, 40+ FV

40 FV (9): Eduardo Garcia/SS, Hedbert Perez/LF, Antoine Kelly/LHP, Abner Uribe/RHP, Joe Gray Jr./RF, Korry Howell/CF, Zavier Warren/3B, Alec Bettinger/RHP, Taylor Floyd/RHP

35+ FV (12): Dylan File/RHP, Carlos Rodriguez/CF, Justin Topa/RHP, Russell Smith/LHP, Hendry Mendez/CF, Mario Feliciano/1B, Tristen Lutz/RF, Hayden Cantrelle/2B, Eduarqui Fernandez/RF, Gabe Holt/2B, Weston Wilson/3B, Max Lazar/RHP

2022 Impact: Ashby

Over 40 FV Breakout Pick: Chourio

40 FV or Less Breakout Pick: Fernandez

Ranked prospects beyond the Top 100

Frelick was a priority target early last spring as he popped up as a freshman at Boston College after a multisport career at a local high school, but wasn't seen extensively in the summers. He came out of the gates fast and stayed hot, going No. 15 overall. He's a plus runner and solid defender and at the plate he fits a type that progressive clubs tend to like: short-levered hitter with solid pop and plate discipline. These characteristics help tools play as they should at higher levels and sometimes can lead to surprise in-game power surges. I like the football/hockey background and he still has that mentality. He almost snuck on my Top 100, but will likely be on it by midseason.

Black was my gut feel guy in the 2021 draft; I ranked him No. 16 overall and knew he wouldn't go that high, but figured someone would take him before 30th. I was surprised he made it all the way to the Brew Crew at 33. Black has similarities with Frelick as a shorter-limbed hitter with great feel for contact and a solid approach and enough power. Black also has a number of indicators for an underrated hitter: young for the class, mid-major college, no major summer league experience, superlative performance. He also has a correctable swing issue, as he makes tons of flat contact but basically can't pull/lift the ball despite the raw power for 15-20 homers. I think he's probably a .275 hitter with a good approach and fringy power who plays a solid second base, and his feel for the game helps everything play up; last year a couple of guys who did that were 2.5-to-3-win players.

Wiemer had a good Cape then a bad spring for Cincinnati, but has always had tools, so he went in the fourth round in 2020 and had a loud pro debut after some swing tweaks. He's a longer-levered hitter who tries to hit it a long way, so he has below-average contact skills, real in-game power and a shot to play all three outfield spots. This type of hitter who leans on his physical abilities (trying to launch mistakes, essentially) can take longer at higher levels to adjust to better pitching, so I wouldn't expect him to slice through the minors, but he now looks like an exciting big leaguer of some kind.

I've consistently been the low guy on Mitchell and am still in that area; he needs to make a swing adjustment to pull/lift more and get to his considerable tools, but even as is, he'll make contact and play a solid center field. Chourio has played only in the DSL but performed well after being known mostly as a tools goof (plus run, real bat control, emerging power) entering the season. I'll round up on him here because this is exactly the kind of player teams are proactively trying to get included in deals before they get to Low-A. Turang was the best player in his prep class as a sophomore/junior but has plateaued a bit as a solid, patient hitter who is a good defender but isn't likely to get to his 15-20 homer level power in games. Zamora tore his ACL at the beginning of his draft spring for Miami, so he was a little more mysterious than most of his draft peers. He has hit better than expected so far in pro ball and has always been a plus runner who is above average defensively, though (this should feel familiar now) he'll likely never hit for big power. Valerio is listed at 5-foot-7 and is limited to second base, so there's not much upside here but he can really hit.

Small is another TrackMan darling the Brewers popped a little before other teams were expecting, of a sort that was most en vogue a few years ago: vertically oriented stuff from a high slot. His ordinary-by-velocity heater fits at the top of the zone and he has a plus changeup that plays at the bottom, along with the command to spot them. His breaker has always been the weakness, along with the overall lack of putaway stuff, so he's likely a backend type.

Quero is uniquely well-rounded amongst this group of position players. He can hit and defend like them, but he also has some power and some feel to get to it in games. I'm normally very skeptical of catchers in rookie ball because of the risk (second only to pitchers) in their path, but all the components of an everyday catcher are present.

Others of note

Garcia was a favorite of mine at a pre-signing MLB showcase three years ago, and ever since, when he's been on the field, he's performed well. He's a standout fielder with enough offensive potential to project as a big leaguer, but I'll need to see more to expect more than a utility type. Perez is a physically mature 18-year-old left fielder who can hit and has a feel for getting to his power in games, but he swings a bit too much and is already backed into the corner-outfield profile squeeze, so he'll need to mash. Gray was a tools standout early in high school in Mississippi, went 60th overall in 2018, and finally had a breakout in 2021. Given his long-levered, power-focused approach, there's always going to be some swing and miss, but he has plus raw power (20 homers last year across both A-ball levels at age 21) and can play all three outfield spots, so, with marginal improvements, there's plenty there to see a reserve/platoon future.

Uribe and Kelly can be grouped together: Both are currently easy plus stuff guys without much finesse or feel. Uribe sits in the upper 90s, regularly jumping over 100 mph, and flashes a plus slider, but as you can see by the surface stats or by the eye, he has no idea where the ball is going right now. His delivery and physical skills aren't bad, so there's hope, but I tend to be the low guy on this type of prospect. Kelly, a 6-foot-6 southpaw, lit up the Brewers' pitch metrics as the 65th overall pick in 2019 out of junior college. Hehas been injured and inconsistent thus far but continues to flash two plus pitches and below average but respectable command, with some markers that he'll have good enough control to get to the big leagues.

Between Holt and Wilson, I think there's a decent bench bat here. Holt has elite plate discipline with contact skills and speed. He can play almost anywhere, but there's almost zero power. Wilson is 27 but hit well in Triple-A last year as a corner utility guy with above-average power and a decent approach.

Pittsburgh Pirates

No. 3 overall
No. 1 in quality depth (prospects better than 40 FV)
$296 million total value
57 players

1. Oneil Cruz, SS, 60 FV (13th in the Top 100)
2. Henry Davis, C, 55 FV (39)
3. Liover Peguero, SS, 50 FV (53)
4. Nick Gonzales, 2B, 50 FV (70)
5. Roansy Contreras, RHP, 50 FV (76)
6. Quinn Priester, RHP, 50 FV (77)
7. Endy Rodriguez, C, 45+ FV
8. Travis Swaggerty, CF, 45 FV
9. Matt Fraizer, CF, 45 FV
10. Jared Jones, RHP, 45 FV
11. Ji-hwan Bae, 2B, 45 FV
12. Miguel Yajure, RHP, 45 FV
13. Bubba Chandler, RHP, 45 FV
14. Diego Castillo, 2B, 40+ FV
15. Maikol Escotto, SS, 40+ FV
16. Michael Burrows, RHP, 40+ FV
17. Rodolfo Nolasco, RF, 40+ FV
18. Anthony Solometo, LHP, 40+ FV
19. Dariel Lopez, 3B, 40+ FV
20. Canaan Smith-Njigba, LF, 40+ FV
21. Lonnie White Jr., CF, 40+ FV
22. Connor Scott, CF, 40+ FV

40 FV (13): J.C. Flowers/RHP, Kyle Nicolas/RHP, Hudson Head/CF, Luis Ortiz/RHP, Jared Triolo/3B, Po-Yu Chen/RHP, Ricky DeVito/RHP, Cody Bolton/RHP, Abraham Gutierrez/C, Carmen Mlodzinski/RHP, Jared Oliva/CF, Nick Garcia/RHP, Cal Mitchell/LF

35+ FV (22): Jack Suwinski/LF, Rodolfo Castro/2B, Shalin Polanco/CF, Yordany De Los Santos/SS, Tucupita Marcano/SS, Mason Martin/1B, Sammy Siani/CF, Tony Blanco/RF, Lolo Sanchez/CF, Brennan Malone/RHP, Owen Kellington/RHP, Tahnaj Thomas/RHP, Tsung-Che Cheng/SS, Eddy Yean/HP, Santiago Florez/RHP, Carter Bins/C, Jackson Glenn/2B, Jase Bowen/CF, Omar Cruz/LHP, Austin Roberts/RHP, Sergio Campana/CF, Matt Gorski/CF

2022 Impact: Cruz

Over 40 FV Breakout Pick: Cruz

40 FV or Less Breakout Pick: Head

Ranked prospects beyond the Top 100

Rodriguez became the best part of the Musgrove trade this year with a breakout season in which he demonstrated that the short-season buzz and performance were real. He's a plus hitter with good pitch selection and also a steady defender behind the plate. The power may or may not come, but it isn't a barrier to becoming one of the 30 best catchers in the world at some point. Bae is another plus hitter with a solid approach but even less power. On the bright side, he is a plus runner who can play both middle infield spots capably, though he fits better at second. Castillo is also in keeping with this Pirates evaluation trend, as a plus hitter with well-below-average power who can also play capably up the middle, but lacks the secondary tools. He's likely a utility type.

Frazier has had an odd path to high-end prospectdom, with 310 at-bats in three seasons for Arizona with a slugging percentage below .400. His pro debut was in keeping with this trend, then he missed the 2020 season, then he had a huge breakout in 2021 that makes it tough to square exactly what he'll be going forward. He's always had solid-average tools, but inconsistent playing time, a broken hamate bone, and a swing change are all relevant points. I think he's probably a good platoon fourth outfielder who can play all three spots, but if he keeps performing, he'll edge into low-end everyday territory. Swaggerty was an enticing 2018 first-rounder due to his own (negative) swing change in the spring, but with giant tools and summer performance. He has played only 12 games since 2019, so it's unclear if the swing tweaks are working, but the tools are still giant and he's close to the big leagues.

Smith-Njigba's brother Jaxson is a star wideout at Ohio State. Canaan came to Pittsburgh in the Taillon package from the Yankees. His standout abilities are easy plus raw power and excellent pitch selection, which are the two key factors in hitting for power at the upper levels. He doesn't offer much defensive value and is likely an average-at-best contact hitter, with the big question being if he can regularly lift the ball in game enough to get to his power. Nolasco was a 2019 rookie ball revelation both for his performance and exit velos. He largely did it again in the domestic complex league in 2021, setting the stage for a potential run to a 50 FV if he can do it again in Low-A. Nolasco is a good enough contact hitter and pitch selector to get to his plus raw power, and he's good enough defensively to stay in right field.

Lopez has a solid full-season debut as a teenager. He's a corner fit of some sort with above-average raw power and solid hittability, but fringy pitch selection that could cause problems at higher levels. Escotto was also in the Taillon package from the Yankees and was a hot name after a strong 17-year-old pro debut with good exit velos while mostly playing shortstop. Like many, he was double-promoted into an auto-strike-calling league after not playing a competitive game in 2020, so expectations were lowered a bit and Escotto hit exactly league average in Low-A as a 19-year-old. White was a dual-sport commit as a wide receiver to Penn State and has the frame and tools you'd assume for that kind of athlete. His contact rate and exit velos over the summer led to mid-first-round buzz, then a little more swing and miss than expected helped him slide to a $1.5 million bonus at the 64th overall pick. I'm still bullish here, but he might fall into the below-average contact, plus everything else while playing center-field bucket. Scott was a favorite out of the same high school as Kyle Tucker with a lot of the same mannerisms. He has been totally fine in pro ball with 2021 representing a career year; with more in-game lift, I could see him jumping into the 50 FV tier.

Jones has explosive arm speed, and this was noticeable to scouts early in his prep career. He has improved the bat-missing shape of his fastball from that time but can still run it up to 100 mph at times, sitting in the mid-90s. He also continues to show plus ability to spin both a slider and curveball and still lags a bit behind with changeup and command quality, but his clean arm stroke and physical skills point to potential that he could stick in a rotation. Chandler was a shortstop/pitcher/quarterback ticketed for Clemson, but he's likely just a pitcher for the Pirates after getting $3 million in the third round last summer. He's understandably raw on the mound, but the broad characteristics -- mid-90s heater, potential plus breaker, components for command, swagger and attacking style -- are all there to click. He comes from a risky demographic but also was a consensus second- or third-round pick as a switch-hitting infielder, so there is a built-in backup plan.

Solometo was another big-money prep arm ($2.8 million) enabled by Davis' underslot deal at 1-1 and has a unique arm swing, but it works for him. He tantalized with some 97 mph readings early in the spring but will probably be a low-90s type at maturity, leaning on his plus slider and feel. Yajure came in the Taillon deal and was a high-probability No. 3-4 starter, but his stuff backed up a tick, so he's tracking more like a ready-made backend starter. Burrows is probably a long-term reliever, but he sits in the mid-90s and drops in a plus curveball, so there's late-inning potential.

Others of note

Of the group of pitchers in the lower tiers here, I like Flowers, Nicolas, Chen and Malone the most. Flowers was a two-way prep standout who played mostly center field at Florida State, but has switched to the mound in pro ball. He's probably a reliever, but he has plus physical skills with a plus fastball/slider combo and is still getting his feet wet on the mound. Nicolas popped on the Cape, hitting 100 mph, then was a pretty vanilla fastball-reliant hard thrower in the spring for Ball State. He went 61st overall to the Marlins, was traded to Pittsburgh after the season, and he's probably a reliever long-term, even if he figures to fold in his above-average slider more. Chen had long been on the international radar out of Taiwan and performed well in his pro debut as a teenager, showing advanced feel and a strong curve/splitter combo in support of a low-90s heater. He's a high-probability backend starter type. Malone was a dude in high school, going 33rd overall, and was the second piece in the Starling Marte deal. He threw only 14 innings last year, suffering from issues with injury and control. When he's at his best, there's starter command, four above-average pitches and a heater that's occasionally in the upper 90s, but he'll need to pitch more to regain that form.

Head was the second player (arguably the best at the time, ahead of Endy Rodriguez) in the Joe Musgrove deal, and he had a tough 2021 season. He was a multisport guy who popped up in the spring before the 2019 draft, so the industry had a short track record evaluating him as a hitter -- and then in his full-season debut, his strikeout rate ballooned to 32%. That's led to some general skepticism about his offensive upside, but it's still early and he has average raw power, plus speed and a center-field fit, giving him margin for error. Triolo was a glove-first college third baseman with some offensive tools. He has hit well despite being old for the level, so playing at the upper levels in 2022 should help determine if he's a reserve or high-end utility type. Gutierrez has bounced around in value and across two teams since being caught up in Braves international sanctions, but he has now gotten back to the impression most had while he was an amateur: He can hit and he can defend, but we'll wait to see how much offensive impact he'll have. There's probably a really good prospect amongst recent high-dollar international signees Polanco (lefty hit/power potential, probably in a corner), De Los Santos (bat/power potential, probably at third base) and Blanco (huge power, rest is a question) but it's still early. Cheng is notable here because he had 30 walks to 14 strikeouts in rookie ball as a teenager.

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St. Louis Cardinals

No. 14 overall
No. 19 in quality depth (prospects better than 40 FV)
$217.5 million total value
40 players

1. Jordan Walker, 3B, 60 FV (17th in the Top 100)
2. Nolan Gorman, 3B, 60 FV (18)
3. Ivan Herrera, C, 50 FV (63)
4. Matthew Liberatore, LHP, 50 FV (93)
5. Masyn Winn, SS, 45 FV
6. Josh Baez, RF, 45 FV
7. Juan Yepez, 1B, 45 FV
8. Zack Thompson, LHP, 45 FV
9. Michael McGreevy, RHP, 45 FV
10. Malcolm Nunez, 3B, 40+ FV
11. Alec Burleson, RF, 40+ FV
12. Tink Hence, RHP, 40+ FV
13. Leonardo Bernal, C, 40+ FV

40 FV (10): Brendan Donovan/3B, Jhon Torres/RF, Luken Baker/1B, Patrick Romeri/RF, Andre Pallante/RHP, Connor Thomas/LHP, Alec Willis/RHP, Tre Fletcher/CF, Jonathan Mejia/SS, Luis Pino/CF

35+ FV (17): Ian Bedell/RHP, Ryan Holgate/RF, Angel Rondon/RHP, Austin Love/RHP, Gordon Graceffo/RHP, Edwin Nunez/RHP, Ali Sanchez/C, Chandler Redmond/1B, Freddy Pacheco/RHP, Conner Capel/RF, Edgardo Rodriguez/C, Ramon Mendoza/2B, Jeremy Rivas/SS, Matt Koperniak/LF, Dionys Rodriguez/RHP, Jake Walsh/RHP, Connor Lunn/RHP

2022 Impact: Yepez

Over 40 FV Breakout Pick: Baez

40 FV or Less Breakout Pick: Graceffo

Ranked prospects beyond the Top 100

Winn is an incredible talent -- a plus runner with plus bat speed who projects for plus raw power, can stick at shortstop, has solid feel for contact, at least a plus-plus arm -- and oh yeah, he also occasionally pitches, flashing two plus-plus pitches when he does so. He's still a bit raw at the plate, with below-average pitch selection, but the eye test points to a breakout coming at any time. The Cards' pitching development staff loves him on the mound -- they want him to be available to throw some innings, keeping him engaged on that side of the ball in case hitting doesn't work out.

Baez is also exciting, with some of the best exit velos on Earth for an 18-year-old, but he also has clear explosion in his hands as well. He has dabbled with upper-90s heat on the mound, but he's young for his prep class and had limited reps from a cold weather state, so it might be a bit slow going developmentally, at least relative to his warm weather peers. His pitch selection is the big variable that will dictate the speed of his path, and early returns are solid. Hence is another exciting young talent who threw only eight innings in 2021 -- more due to caution through onboarding him to a full pro workload than any serious injury concern. He'll flash two plus pitches, a mid-90s heater and two-plane breaking ball, but also has the clean arm stroke and physical ability to project starter qualities to develop. Switch-hitting backstop Bernal has played in only the DSL, but he checks the boxes in terms of tools, performance and age vs. level numbers -- keep an eye on his stateside debut this year.

Yepez has a chance to impact the big league roster this year. He's limited by his contribution in terms of handedness, speed, defense and position, but he's got the stuff that matters: offensive tools and Triple-A performance. Thompson had a tough season in 2021 but bounced back in the Arizona Fall League with higher velocity and more crispness to his raw stuff and execution. He's a potential mid-rotation starter with an easy plus curveball. McGreevy, a converted shortstop, was the Cards' first-rounder last summer, and while he isn't analytically en vogue for his pitch shapes and spin rates, he's got good arm speed, a plus breaking ball and starter traits, so there's plenty here to develop. Nunez performed well at high-A and Double-A, even while young for both levels. He can hit and he has raw power, but his swing plane doesn't leverage all of his raw power, and his pitch selection is just OK. He might fit best at first base, so it's trending a little more toward a corner/utility platoon than everyday player right now. Burleson was a standout two-way player at East Carolina, a coveted outfielder who was also a pro prospect as a finesse lefty on the mound. He surprised many by running from high-A to Triple-A in his pro debut as a 22-year-old -- not to mention one focused solely on hitting for the first time in his career. He's got low-end everyday tools and could force his way into a big league discussion by the end of the year.

Others of note

Baker, who made it to Triple-A last year, has massive raw power with a solid feel to get to it in games. He's Rule 5 eligible as the out-of-favor right-handed first base/DH type, but he's exactly the kind of guy who can get a call-up and hit four homers in his first week in the big leagues. Pallante took a step forward in the Arizona Fall League and now looks like a backend starter, sitting 94-96 mph with an above-average slider. Thomas has steadily added velocity and he's now 89-91 mph -- which could be enough to let his above-average off-speed pitches and command play in a big league rotation. Willis was a late popup prep righty last spring in Colorado. He's still raw, but he flashes an above-average fastball/slider combo. After a loud summer on the Cape, Bedell's velocity has wavered a bit after Tommy John surgery last season, but he has flashed three above-average pitches and command at times; keep an eye on his return. Graceffo was a fifth-rounder out of Villanova who has really impressed since signing. He's 6-foot-4, sits 93-96 mph and flashes above-average stuff, so there's rotation upside. Walsh has one of the best sliders in the minor leagues and sits 95-97 mph; he's on the 40-man with some experience at Triple-A, so he could get the call-up at any time.

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NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks

No. 5 overall
No. 9 (tied) in quality depth (prospects better than 40 FV)
$274.5 million total value
46 players

1. Alek Thomas, CF, 60 FV (14)
2. Corbin Carroll, CF, 60 FV (21)
3. Jordan Lawlar, SS, 55 FV (29)
4. Geraldo Perdomo, SS, 50 FV (90)
5. Ryne Nelson, RHP, 50 FV (102)
6. Drey Jameson, RHP, 50 FV (112)
7. Blake Walston, LHP, 50 FV (122)
8. Brandon Pfaadt, RHP, 45+ FV
9. Slade Cecconi, RHP, 45 FV
10. Bryce Jarvis, RHP, 45 FV
11. Deyvison De Los Santos, 3B, 45 FV
12. Kristian Robinson, RF, 45 FV
13. Tommy Henry, LHP, 45 FV
14. A.J. Vukovich, 3B, 45 FV
15. Seth Beer, DH, 40+ FV
16. Adrian Del Castillo, C, 40+ FV
17. Cooper Hummel, 1B, 40+ FV

40 FV (11): Jake McCarthy/RF, Matt Tabor/RHP, Blaze Alexander/SS, Ryan Bliss/SS, Jeison Guzman/SS, Stu Fairchild/CF, Manuel Pena/3B, Luis Frias/RHP, J.B. Bukauskas/RHP, Jorge Barrosa/CF, Joe Elbis/RHP

35+ FV (19): Conor Grammes/RHP, Buddy Kennedy/3B, Jose Herrera/C, Dominic Canzone/LF, Alvin Guzman/CF, Jefferson Espinal/CF, Dominic Fletcher/CF, Abdias De La Cruz/SS, Humberto Mejia/RHP, Justin Martinez/RHP, Drew Ellis/3B, Levi Kelly/RHP, Josh Green/RHP, Neyfy Castillo/1B, Jacob Steinmetz/RHP, Juan Corniel/SS, Edwin Uceta/RHP, Kyle Nelson/LHP, Ryan Weiss/RHP

2022 Impact: Beer

40+ FV breakout pick: De Los Santos

40 FV or less breakout pick: Grammes

Ranked prospects beyond the Top 100

Nelson fell to the No. 56 overall pick in 2019 because to most teams he looked like a reliever with effort to his delivery; a number of teams told me they had him in the fifth round or later due to this. The D-backs liked the raw stuff and physical skills and they've been proved right as he has a chance to start a big league game in the second half of 2022. The calling card is his rising mid-90s heater and two plus breaking balls, with enough changeup and command right now to project him turning over a lineup. Jameson went ahead of Nelson in 2019, at 34th overall, with a similar profile with plus stuff and below-average command. Jameson has also turned the corner and is on the verge of the big leagues, sitting 96-98 mph deep into games with a plus two-plane breaking ball. These two prospects are basically a coin flip right now. Henry was also a college pitcher from the 2019 class and is a different type: a tall lefty with fringe velocity who relies more on his slider/changeup/command and deception from a high slot. He has a good shot to be a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Walston was also taken in the 2019 draft at No. 26 overall, striking a balance between the upside college righties and lower-upside college lefty: a 6-foot-5 projection lefty who was a late popup guy out of high school. At his best, there are shades of Cole Hamels with the curveball, changeup, and command all flashing above-average-to-plus. He sits 90-92 mph now but will jump into the mid-90s at times. He's an old-school, high school projection bet who is pretty to watch operate. We move into the 2020 draft where the D-backs took Jarvis, Cecconi and Pfaadt in that order, but I have them ordered the other way now, though all very close. Pfaadt is a late-blooming fifth-rounder from a Division II school, but he joined those power arms from the 2019 draft in Double-A during his pro debut. His above-average breaking balls and feel both played better than expected while his fastball has improved to 92-95 mph deep into games. Cecconi was a big name early in high school, then had injuries and velo fluctuations for the last three or four years. He has above-average stuff and starter traits but hasn't quite put it all together yet. Jarvis was another late bloomer with a velo spike in his age 22 year at Duke and has settled like Cecconi with above-average raw stuff and starter traits.

De Los Santos is the big breakout name in this group, an 18-year-old with 70-grade raw power who performed pretty well at low-A while playing third base. There are some approach and contact risks already present, along with it being unclear which corner spot he'll settle at -- so there are some real limitations, but this is a first-round-pick level talent whose name I didn't know at this time last year. Vukovich has a number of similarities with De Los Santos, as a power-focused third baseman with some contact and defensive questions but strong production. Vukovich's upside is a bit lower and he's a year ahead, so it's close to a coin flip between the two.

Robinson is incredibly talented with one of the best power-speed-production combinations in the minors, but also has a heartbreaking element to his story. In short (read more here), Bahamas-born Robinson had a mental health episode while in Arizona during the beginning of the pandemic, and the immigration issues tied to his interaction with law enforcement threatened his career. He hasn't played a pro game since 2019 but is currently on the backfields and seemingly back on track, added to the 40-man roster in the interim due to his enormous potential. There are obviously bigger issues at play and we haven't seen him play for a while, so this is more of a wait-and-see and hope-for-the-best type of situation.

Beer has the great fortune of being a stone-cold DH who is now ready for his big league career the year that his club will be adding the universal DH. He had shoulder surgery just five games into his big league career but looks to be on track to return where his power-and-patience-and-plus-raw-power skill set has a chance to shine. Del Castillo had some top-ten-overall-pick hype entering last spring at Miami, but had an up-and-down offensive spring without notably improving his defensive chops behind the plate. He can hit and has 15-18 homer kind of raw power, but needs to tweak his approach to get to it. I think he'll be an offensive-focused backup catcher who rotates into the lineup at first base and DH. Hummel was acquired from Milwaukee for Eduardo Escobar last summer and profiles along the same lines as Del Castillo: He can hit, has some pop and isn't that great behind the plate. Between these two and Daulton Varsho, the D-backs should have plenty of sorta-catchers to rotate in when the starting catcher is pinch hit for late in games.

Others of note

Alexander and Bliss have very different ways of getting to comparable prospect value at shortstop. Alexander is a solid defender with a true 80-grade arm while Bliss is also fine at shortstop but has a fringy arm that makes him a more natural fit at second base. Alexander has real contact issues but above-average raw power while Bliss has below-average raw power, can definitely hit and has enough feel to hit some mistakes out of the park. Bliss is more likely to become a big leaguer, but Alexander has more potential impact. Barrosa is also a likely big leaguer but with little impact. Plus bat control and speed along with solid defense in center are his big league skills, but his raw power is near the bottom of the scale. Grammes was a pick to click before he blew out in the summer. He's a conversion arm up to 100 mph with two plus breaking balls and a relief fit. Canzone is another late-blooming reserve type that's a platoon corner outfielder with 20+ homer power

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Colorado Rockies

No. 24 overall
No. 14 in quality depth (prospects better than 40 FV)
$149.5 million total value
35 players

1. Zac Veen, RF, 60 FV (No. 20 in the Top 100)
2. Drew Romo, C, 50 FV (85)
3. Benny Montgomery, CF, 45+ FV
4. Ryan Vilade, LF, 45 FV
5. Brenton Doyle, CF, 45 FV
6. Elehuris Montero, 3B, 45 FV
7. Ezequiel Tovar, SS, 45 FV
8. Yanquiel Fernandez, LF, 45 FV
9. Adael Amador, SS, 45 FV
10. Warming Bernabel, 3B, 40+ FV
11. Michael Toglia, 1B, 40+ FV
12. Jordy Vargas, RHP, 45 FV
13. Chris McMahon, RHP, 40+ FV
14. Dyan Jorge, SS, 40+ FV
15. Sam Weatherly, LHP, 40+ FV

40 FV (11): Jaden Hill/RHP, Ryan Rolison/LHP, Colton Welker/3B, Juan Brito/2B, Helcris Olivarez/LHP, Ryan Feltner/RHP, Noah Davis/RHP, McCade Brown/RHP, Hunter Goodman/C, Karl Kauffman/RHP, Joe Rock/LHP

35+ FV (9): Mateo GIl/SS, Blair Calvo/RHP, Juan Guerrero/LF, Grant Lavigne/1B, Ronaiker Palma/C, Will Ethridge/RHP, Bryan Perez/RHP, Willi MacIver/C, Gavin Hollowell/RHP,

2022 Impact: Montero

Over 40 FV Breakout Pick: Tovar

40 FV or less breakout pick: Brown

Ranked prospects beyond the Top 100

Montgomery was on the national scouting stage for a long time as a prep center fielder, notable for his plus bat speed and foot speed - along with his funky hand movement at the plate. He got bigger and stronger in his draft spring, leaping up to the No. 8 overall pick. How well his swing plays against advanced pitching and how well he shows in-game pull power will be what to watch this spring. Vilade has slowly moved down the defensive spectrum in pro ball to where he's a left field/first base fit, but luckily he's always been able to hit and he has above-average raw power. His in-game power is just okay, which puts him into a profile squeeze where he's not offering much speed, defense, or over-the-fence power and he's right-handed, which is why he's seen more as a good role player.

Doyle was a late pop-up guy at a Division II college who hadn't faced any pro-level pitching but had big league tools; the Rockies got him in the fourth round, right where a number of teams were hoping to get him. He had a great post-draft debut in 2019, then came back in 2021 with a solid season but one that shows where his floor/ceiling will be. Doyle is the somewhat familiar lower-contact rate center fielder with big raw power -- with those types ranging from Drew Stubbs to Mike Cameron. Doyle will be 24 in May and should spend most of the year in Double-A, letting us know if he's more of a low-end starter or role player. Toglia had an up-and-down draft year but the Rockies believed and popped him 23rd overall in 2019 out of UCLA. He's a 6-foot-5 switch-hitting power-and-patience first baseman who doesn't have a true plus on the card (maybe his left-handed raw power), but he's solid at everything, which means he's also in the platoon/bench or low-end starter spectrum.

Tovar is a plus defender at short with at least plus bat control and he got to high-A last year as a teenager due to these two skills. Beyond that, there isn't a ton else in the way or raw tools and his pitch selection is below average, evidenced only by his low walk rates, because this kind of bat-to-ball ability means he'll have no trouble making contact at the lower levels. He also hit 15 homers, but I think that total will go down as he advances due to the pitch selection issue. Tovar is an almost-lock big leaguer, even if he ends up being a bench type who bounces around, but the questions to dictate if he can be an every-day player are if he can improve his pitch selection or keep his in-game power at league-average levels.

Amador has some similar stuff going on, as an above average runner and defender at short with some contact skills. Amador has better pitch selection, but isn't quite as dynamic in terms of explosion or power potential. Jorge waited an extra signing period for budgets to reset to land a $2.8 million bonus from the Rockies. He has a little more physical upside than Tovar and Amador, at 6-foot-2 with plus speed and above-average bat speed but he's the same age as Amador with no pro performance, so he slides in just behind for now.

Montero will forever be tied to the ill-fated Nolan Arenado salary dump, as he was the most valuable part of the package headed back to Colorado. Montero also took a big step forward in 2021, repeating Double-A two years later and smoking it then continuing the act at Triple-A, setting the stage for a 2022 big league debut. He has plus raw power and above-average bat control, but below-average pitch selection can undermine both. Montero is just OK at third base, but is, like many of the position players in this range, fits somewhere from a platoon player to low-end starter. Bernabel has a similar skillset, with bat control and iffy pitch selection with a corner fit of some sort. Bernabel has a feel for lifting the ball in game, but closer to average raw power. Like Jorge with the shortstops above, Fernandez is the highest variance of this corner group because of the lack of information. Fernandez has plus lefty raw power and showed it in the DSL, along with a solid contact rate. It seems to me to be more of a "more talented than my opposition" than a "I have power, know how to use it, but also contact skills and good pitch selection as an 18-year-old." But also, we don't really have any bad information here other than he's definitely a corner outfielder.

Vargas has only pitched in the DSL, but he was sitting 93-95 mph with some life. He's also got some projection and enough feel to spin an above-average curveball. It's early, but there are encouraging signs here. McMahon has been a bit up-and-down since his high school underclass days. He throws a tailing sinker 91-93 mph but was more 93-95 mph when at his best in college at Miami (Fla.). His slider, changeup and feel all flash above average at times, but it's trending more like No. 4 or No. 5 starter now than it was at draft time. Weatherly started a bit in college and has a solid four pitch mix, but has always looked more like a power lefty reliever. His 92-95 mph heater and slider are plus and anything around 40-to-45 command should make him a big leaguer if he can keep that raw stuff.

Others of note

Like a couple of other pitchers in the system, Hill isn't the prettiest analytically, but shows the broad abilities scouts are looking for. He's a big righty that's often in the upper-90's (without bat-missing shape or much deception at the moment), an above average slider, and a plus-plus changeup, though the execution with those weapons wasn't always there. He blew out and needed Tommy John surgery in his draft spring, helping him slide from the mid-first round to the second round. There's lots to work with here, but Hill is also 22 without a very long track record of sustained multi-inning success. Rolison's velocity is down a few ticks from Ole Miss, but he's still got moxie, starter command and a plus curveball, so he'll be a useful big leaguer of some sort. Feltner flashed an electric arm at Ohio State but had some command issues; the Rockies shortened his arm swing and that part improved. His raw stuff is down a tick from college heights but he's now a useful big league arm of some sort.

Brown flashed a plus heater and hook at Indiana, but had a shorter track record of success and command, so he's a bit of a developmental type. Since he's 6-foot-6 and a solid athlete with a recent stuff bump from a cold weather background, there's a little more time to see how it goes, but the bullpen is the most likely outcome. Goodman was a 4th rounder last summer, the next pick after Brown, and he's a below average receiver behind the plate that may need to move to first base but with easy plus raw power and solid production. He's probably a righty bench/platoon that's either a backup catcher or third catcher/mostly first baseman, but even that is more valuable now with the universal DH. Gil (son of Benji) also came over in the Arenado trade and is a solid shortstop with 15-18 homer potential and solid feel for the game, but without a plus tool.

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Los Angeles Dodgers

No. 10 overall
No. 7 in quality depth (prospects better than 40 FV)
$247.5 million total value
48 players

1. Diego Cartaya, C, 55 FV (No. 26 in the Top 100)
2. Ryan Pepiot, RHP, 50 FV (59)
3. Bobby Miller, RHP, 50 FV (61)
4. Andy Pages, RF, 50 FV (68)
5. Michael Busch, 1B, 50 FV (87)
6. Miguel Vargas, 3B, 50 FV (111)
7. Nick Nastrini, RHP, 45+ FV
8. Landon Knack, RHP, 45+ FV
9. Eddys Leonard, 2B, 45+ FV
10. Wilman Diaz, SS, 45 FV
11. Carlos Duran, RHP, 45 FV
12. Jacob Amaya, SS, 45 FV
13. Alex De Jesus, 3B, 45 FV
14. Jose Ramos, CF, 45 FV
15. Rayne Doncon, SS, 45 FV
16. Jorbit Vivas, 2B, 40+ FV
17. Andre Jackson, RHP, 40+ FV

40 FV (16): Jesus Galiz/C, Michael Grove/RHP, Maddux Bruns/LHP, Hyun-il Choi/RHP, Emmet Sheehan/RHP, Clayton Beeter/RHP, Gavin Stone/RHP, James Outman/CF, Peter Heubeck/RHP, NIck Robertson/RHP, Jonny Deluca/CF, Luis Rodriguez/CF, Samuel Munoz/3B, Kody Hoese/3B, Kendall Williams/RHP, Yeiner Fernandez/C

35+ FV (15): Carson Taylor/C, Brandon Lewis/3B, Justin Bruihl/LHP, Jake Vogel/CF, Ryan Ward/LF, Tanner Dodson/RHP, Ryan Noda/1B, Devin Mann/2B, Edgardo Henriquez/RHP, James Yurchak/1B, Leonel Valera/SS, Jerming Rosario/RHP, Drew Avans/LF, Kyle Hurt/RHP, Osvanni Gutierrez/RHP

2022 Impact: Knack

Over 40 FV Breakout Pick: Doncon

40 FV or less breakout pick: Galiz

Ranked prospects beyond the Top 100

Nastrini is the wildest story for a post-draft riser that I can remember. He was on everyone's 2021 draft lists after his freshman year at UCLA, where he showed first-round potential. Nastrini got the yips as a junior in 2021, walking 38 in 31⅓ innings and eventually leaving the program and scouts had to go to a local college summer league team to see him throw before the draft. He was 95-98 mph with an easy plus hook there, but it was hard to reconcile these two versions of him. The Dodgers grabbed him in the fourth round for a slightly overslot $500,000 bonus.

Nastrini threw 14 pro innings after signing, mostly at low-A and struck out 32, walking 7. Nastrini was the talk of Dodgers' instructional league play, continuing to sit 95-97 with two breaking balls that were both 60-to-70-grade pitches depending on whom you asked - although everyone agreed he was better than Bobby Miller in the same setting. After the draft every year, there's a handful of guys who pop that summer/fall and I'm wary of ranking too aggressively based on that smallish sample, but I think Nastrini is about 20 more pro innings from being a 50 FV for me. We would just have to agree to ignore those 31⅓ innings in 2021 at UCLA, because everything else points to this guy being a dude.

Knack has his own interesting story, emerging in the pandemic shortened 2020 season as a nearly-23-year-old passed-over player at East Tennessee State. The scouting report from that short look has held up, with an above-average fastball/breaking ball combo and above-average feel for pitching. He'll be in Triple-A most of this year and despite the Dodgers' excellent pitching depth on the big league team and premium pitching prospects, multiple team sources indicate they feel best about Knack of those who could come in for a spot start. Duran is a different sort of arm, a 6-foot-6 20-year-old who has only made two starts above low-A, but he's another power arm who projects as a starter. Duran has a plus breaking ball and sits in the mid-90s, mixing in a sinker and changeup. Jackson is a converted outfielder with a Tommy John surgery in his rear view and he already has big league time. He's solid-average at almost everything except for his plus changeup, a solid utility arm who fits in many roles.

Leonard has a breakout 2021 as a 20-year-old at both A-ball levels, hitting 22 homers and hitting 45% better than league average and playing all over the infield along with a bit of center field. He's OK at shortstop but probably fits best at second and in center as the best version of a super utility type since he can be out of control at times and his arm is just average. He's a plus runner with plus bat speed and above-average raw power and has turned raw tools into usable ones at the plate. If he keeps hitting like this, he'll become a 50 FV in-season. Amaya is a little less exciting but comparable as a prospect. He's a steadier shortstop who can stick there and he has posted less loud numbers largely due to unlucky BABIP with probably no more than fringy power.

De Jesus is playing mostly shortstop now but will move to third base long-term. He also had a slow start to 2021, but recovered nicely with a timing tweak to his swing, with solid year-end numbers as a teenager at low-A with a power-and-patience skill set. Vivas is a 5-foot-10 second baseman with average-ish tools but has arguably the three most important things going for him: he can really hit, he has a good approach, and he has enough power to let it all play. He also performs well and is young for his levels, so there's universal trade value -- even if he's a Tommy La Stella-type player.

Diaz was in the top tier of prospects in the 2021 international class and still tracks as what he was projected to be at that point. The components are here for above-average hit and power tools while sticking at shortstop, though the in-game power will show up last and there's some hit-tool risk as there is with any prospect who hasn't played stateside games yet. Doncon was the underrated find of the same signing class; he had a deal with the Dodgers then made a physical leap during the beginning of the pandemic and showed up looking like a seven-figure talent in the DSL last summer despite a bonus roughly a quarter of Diaz's. Doncon is a shortstop now but should get bigger and could eventually move off of the position, while Diaz likely sticks. Doncon's pandemic development was most notable in his bat speed and raw power, and it's already showing up in his pro statline.

Ramos was another low-dollar find by the international group, signing out of Panama as a 17-year-old and he's done nothing but perform in pro ball. He has some of the best exit velos in the low minors and his power-and-patience skill set is already showing up in games, though he may struggle against better offspeed stuff at higher levels. He's a defensive tweener with a double-plus arm that'll play anywhere.

Others of note

There are three interesting young catchers in this part of the list: Galiz, Fernandez, and Taylor. Galiz had a deal early as one of the better players in the 2021 international class, then his deal fell apart and the Dodgers swooped in. He had a solid debut in the DSL with strong contact and defense but needs to get to more of his raw power in games, which the Dodgers are good at teaching. Fernandez is from the 2020 international class and has a similar profile to some previous big league Dodgers catchers: smallish, can really hit, solid power, components to become a solid defender. Taylor was a later-developing backstop at Virginia Tech who would've gone higher than the fourth round in the 2020 draft if he had had a full spring. He has an offense-over-defense profile after a strong pro debut in high-A.

Bruns may have had the best raw stuff (70-grade heater and hook, 60-grade slider) and worst command in the whole 2021 prep pitching class, which is contrasted by Heubeck having solid average stuff but advanced feel/delivery/projection, proving there are no absolutes even with top tier organizations. Sheehan is another already obviously good value in the college pitching ranks, going in the sixth round from Boston College. He worked in the mid-90s in college then sat 95-98 in shorter stints in pro ball, putting up Nastrini-like numbers: 15⅔ innings, 34 strikeouts, 8 walks.

Rodriguez was one of the top position players in the so-far-underwhelming 2019 international class, and Rodriguez has lost a bit of luster as well. The 2019 class was hit hard by the pandemic. Players were set to make their pro debuts in a lost season of 2020, then a new class came in, so in 2021 many of the 2019 signees were 18 years old and got pushed to stateside pro debuts with no official games under their belt. Rodriguez got bigger and strong but his swing also got bigger and his rhythm wasn't quite right. There's easy plus raw power now, but he also is more of a tweener fit defensively. Munoz was the big-ticket signing in the most recent signing class and is an advanced lefty bat with power potential that may fit at any of the corner spots long-term.

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San Diego Padres

No. 14 overall
No. 22 in quality depth (prospects better than 40 FV)
$207 million total value
35 players

1. C.J. Abrams, SS, 60 FV (No. 4 in the Top 100)
2. Robert Hassell III, CF, 55 FV (31))
3. Luis Campusano, C, 50 FV (67))
4. MacKenzie Gore, LHP, 50 FV (80)
5. James Wood, CF, 45 FV
6. Jackson Merrill, SS, 45 FV
7. Euribiel Angeles, SS, 45 FV
8. Victor Acosta, SS, 40+ FV
9. Josh Mears, LF, 40+ FV
10. Robert Gasser, LHP, 40+ FV
11. Samuel Zavala, CF, 40+ FV

40 FV (12): Jarlin Susana/RHP, Kevin Kopps/RHP, Victor Lizarraga/RHP, Eguy Rosario/2B, Reiss Knehr/RHP, Brandon Valenzuela/C, Matt Waldron/RHP, Ethan Elliott/LHP, Adrian Martinez/RHP, Steven Wilson/RHP, Yendry Rojas/SS, Max Ferguson/2B

35+ FV (12): Nerwillian Cedeno/2B, Ray Kerr/LHP, Tirso Ornelas/LF, Corey Rosier/CF, Efrain Contreras/RHP, River Ryan/RHP, Noel Vela/LHP, Jairo Iriarte/RHP, Daniel Montesino/LF, Jackson Wolf/LHP, Ryan Bergert/RHP, Brayan Medina/RHP

2022 Impact: Gore

Over 40 FV Breakout Pick: Wood

40 FV or less breakout pick: Susana

Ranked prospects beyond the Top 100

Wood had a Kyle Tucker-esque look two summers ago on the showcase circuit, with above-average bat control and raw power from a 6-foot-7 frame along with no batting gloves and some tape measure home runs. He also has deceptively above average speed and isn't bad in center field right now. His spring at IMG Academy was very up-and-down, so interest went from the middle of the first round early in the spring to scattered from the compensation round to the third round at draft time, with questions about what his signability would be. The Padres took him 62nd overall but gave him $2.6 million, commensurate with picks in the late-20s. Wood had a solid pro debut but still struck out 32% of the time in those 26 complex league games. Merrill was the Padres' pick in the late-20s, signing for $1.8 million; there was lots of interest on Merrill before the next pick, where they snagged Wood. I didn't know Merrill's name until about March 2021, so many teams didn't have enough history -- particularly with wood bats at full-sized fields against D1-level pitching -- to feel confident in a first-round eval, even though his tools belonged there. The lefty-swinging shortstop has some Stephen Drew vibes if it all comes together and he should join Wood in low-A this year.

Acosta has a little more prospect hype and upside than Angeles, but I slightly prefer Angeles at this point. Angeles is very advanced, in terms of polish both on and off the field, with more skills than tools at this point. He can really hit and play all the spots in the infield, along with solid power for his age (19) and size (5-foot-11, 175 pounds). He may top out at the Marwin Gonzalez-type high-end utility guy, but that's still very valuable. Acosta is a much more likely shortstop and is a plus runner with more obvious tools, which is why he signed for $1.8 million in the class with Zavala. Acosta isn't quite as polished but is still just 17, so there's plenty of time.

Mears has ridiculous raw power, either a 70 or 80, and he'll give you above-average run times occasionally as well. That starting point is fantastic, but the contact rates need to improve to let those tools play at the upper levels. Zavala stood out in the DSL last summer as a 17-year-old after signing for $1.2 million from Venezuela. He'll probably settle as an outfield tweener, though he is a solid-average runner and decent defender in center right now. His separator is the hit/approach/power combo, which was obvious with a loud performance in the DSL -- keep an eye on him for a big stateside breakout in 2022.

Gasser was one of many 22-year-old college pitchers in play for the top five rounds after the shortened pandemic draft. He has a whiff-friendly fastball shape on his low-90s heater that can hit 95 mph, and his plus slider is the carrying trait. There's plenty of feel and command along with a usable changeup, so he may slice through A-Ball quickly.

Others of note

Susana could've signed in the last international class, but he waited a year -- after his velocity spiked late in the process and most of the bonus money was spent -- to get $1.7 million from the Padres in January. He's 6-foot-6, 240 pounds and turning 18 this week with his biggest current skill being arm speed: sitting 95-97 and hitting 99 mph. He has two power breaking balls and a low-90s changeup that he can throw for strikes, but as you may guess there are some command and finesse issues that lead to a reliever risk.

If you watched any college baseball last year you were probably aware of Arkansas relief ace Kevin Kopps. As a 24-year-old (now 25), Kopps dominated (131 strikeouts, 0.90 ERA in 89⅔ innings that included just one start) the best amateur league in the world, becoming the 99th overall pick and signing for a below-slot bonus. He was a late bloomer in part due to a 2018 Tommy John surgery but also the unique way he gets out: throwing a mid-80s cutter/slider about ⅔ of the time. Padres personnel think he'll be in the big leagues in 2022.

The third flavor of unique in this range is Matt Waldron. He was a pretty generic reliever who was 24 in Double-A last year and sat 90-94 mph, but broke out a knuckleball at this time last year and slowly it became a bigger part of his arsenal. The Padres want him to dial it down from 80 mph to the mid-70s and throw it something like 75% of the time because the limited strain it puts on his arm could allow him to throw more often than most relievers. He has a real chance for a big league look in 2022, especially if the Padres need some length.

Three other position players are of note here: Rojas (Cuban SS signed for $1.3 million, well-rounded skill set), Ferguson (slight 2B had up-and-down draft year but has bulked up, is a plus runner) and Rosier (2021 12th-rounder out of UNC Greensboro had a loud pro debut, was traded over from Seattle). The Pads took two pitchers in the 2021 draft from West Virginia is 6-foot-7 Jackson Wolf, who slings a sinker/slider combo from a low slot while Ryan Bergert was a standout underclass power arm that missed the spring due to Tommy John surgery.

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San Francisco Giants

No. 11 overall
No. 14 in quality depth (prospects better than 40 FV)
$230.5 million total value
39 players

1. Marco Luciano, 3B, 55 FV (No. 30 in the Top 100)
2. Luis Matos, CF, 55 FV (42)
3. Kyle Harrison, LHP, 55 FV (50)
4. Joey Bart, C, 50 FV (72)
5. Patrick Bailey, C, 50 FV (103)
6. Heliot Ramos, RF, 50 FV (107)
7. Hunter Bishop, CF, 45 FV
8. Will Bednar, RHP, 45 FV
9. Gregory Santos, RHP, 45 FV
10. Luis Toribio, 3B, 45 FV
11. Jairo Pomares, CF, 45 FV
12. Casey Schmitt, 3B, 45 FV
13. Aeverson Arteaga, SS, 40+ FV
14. R.J. Dabovich, RHP, 40+ FV
15. Nick Swiney, LHP, 40+ FV

40 FV (15): Matt Mikulski/LHP, Ryan Murphy/RHP, Manuel Mercedes/RHP, Will Wilson/2B, Tristan Beck/RHP, Carson Ragsdale/RHP, Adrian Sugastey/C, Randy Rodriguez/RHP, Sam Delaplane/RHP, Kai-Wei Teng/RHP, Sean Hjelle/RHP, Jimmy Glowenke/2B, Eric Silva/RHP, Trevor McDonald/RHP, Ricardo Genoves/C

35+ FV (9): Seth Corry/LHP, Ryan Reckley/SS, Kervin Castro/RHP, Blake Rivera/RHP, Tyler Fitzgerald/SS, Brett Auerbach/C, Mason Black/RHP, Cole Waites/RHP, Michael Plassmeyer/LHP

2022 Impact: Bart

Over 40 FV Breakout Pick: Schmitt

40 FV or less breakout pick: Murphy

Ranked prospects beyond the Top 100

Bishop still has the tools that made him the No. 10 overall pick in 2019, but also has the same contact questions -- along with new ones about a lack of reps and durability. A shoulder injury and the pandemic year are to blame for the last two issues while his lack of bat control is the culprit for the contact issues. The reason he's ranked this high is he has plus-plus bat speed and raw power along with plus foot speed and enough feel to stay in center field. Pomares has concerns on his contact ability but due to his pitch selection, laid bare with a 33 strikeout to 1 walk showing in a late season promotion to high-A. Before that, he hit well in low-A as a 20-year-old and he has an above-average power/speed combo, but it comes with some real risk.

Toribio is a righty-hitting third baseman with limited range, thus at this trajectory he'll end up at first base full-time. That backs him into a corner profile-wise (and wastes his above-average arm), but he can hit, he has a good approach, and he has plus raw power, so I see a big leaguer here of some sort, even if it's just a platoon righty bat. Schmitt was an elite closer and third baseman at San Diego State, but the Giants have him as a position player only now. He's a plus defender with at least an average bat and enough above-average raw power to profile as an every-day player.

Schmitt is now 23 and hasn't been above low-A, but the components are here for a breakout. Arteaga signed for $1.2 million out of Venezuela as a familiar type: the lanky, defense-over-offense shortstop. He's already outpaced early expectations, hitting nine home runs in 56 complex league games, showing a power/speed/patience combo that normally comes later, if ever, for prospects of this sort.

Bednar took a big step forward in 2021, moving into the Mississippi State rotation and serving as the ace for a College World Series title run. His plus slider is the difference-maker here, with a fastball and curveball that can both play above average at times. There's enough command to project a No. 3 or No. 4 starter, but Bednar is maxed out physically and his delivery is just all right, so his pitchability will have to shine through. Santos took a big step forward at the alternate site, running his heater over 100 mph and flashing at least a plus slider. His command and overall pitchability are both still below average, but fine, and he could be one tweak away from being a late-inning weapon.

Dabovich was a solid starter prospect at Arizona State with solid average stuff, then moved to the bullpen and was up to 100 mph with bat-missing lift. The added arm speed helped his curveball play close to plus, but it all came with relief command. This journey is valuable because Dabovich is one of few prospects to show a distinct back-end rotation version of himself and a late inning version. He'll likely continue along this relief path and 45-grade command will put him in the late innings. Swiney is the prototypical funky, crafty left with above average offspeed stuff, fringy velocity and above average command.

Others of note

The Giants have arguably the best, if not the best, pitcher development system in baseball right now, particularly at the big league level, so I'll focus on some arms in the bottom two tiers. Mikulski was a second-round pick last summer as another of the improved 22-year-old college pitchers passed over in the pandemic-shortened draft. His velo spiked from the low-90s to the mid-90s and hit 100 mph with a bonkers performance at Fordham, an above-average slider and plus changeup. What he does fits in a multi-inning relief type role. Murphy is the opposite, with a fringy fastball and mostly solid-average off-speed pitchers but plus command. Continuing the whiplash, Mercedes is an upside teenager with a wide variance in possible outcomes, but he sits in the mid-90's now with a three pitch mix that's at least solid average when it's right, but I'll guess he splits the difference and fits in the multi-utility relief role like Mikulski projects.

Ragsdale is 6-foot-8 and drops his pitches out of the sky, sitting 92-94 with a plus curveball and solid feel for pitching. Delaplane was claimed off of waivers from Seattle while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and will be 27 soon with only two innings thrown above Double-A but he has wacky raw stuff. He sits 92-94 but with excellent bat-missing characteristics and unique, at least plus slider that's somewhat confusing analytically but it's worked everywhere so far. Teng has solid-average stuff across the board and above average command, a type that progressive pitching clubs have proven they can tease one more good quality out of and make a solid big leaguer. Silva is on the smaller side but has the physical ability, arm speed and feel for snapping off two kinds of breaking balls that you like to see to bet on a non-standard type. McDonald is another over-slot prep righty with good feel for a breaking ball and enough other qualities to project him as a back-end starter. Waites will not be a starter but is a late bloomer up to 100 mph with a 55-or-60-grade slider.