Despite the favorite-friendly best-of-seven series the NBA adopted for the first round of the playoffs starting in 2003, each of the past 10 postseasons has featured at least one upset in the opening round.
That streak will probably continue this season. That said, there's no obvious upset pick according to my formula, which is based on the historical odds of winning a playoff series as determined by the two teams' point differential during the regular season along with the results of the head-to-head season series.
Let's take a look at the eight series as ranked by upset probability from this metric, starting with a surprising pick that makes more sense when you look closer.