EAGAN, Minn. -- The NFL's free agent negotiating window had been open for less than 24 hours when the Minnesota Vikings made one of the most surprising moves in their recent history.
No, it wasn't the decision to let quarterback Kirk Cousins depart without having a successor on hand. It was their swift choice to pursue and sign a 29-year-old running back with a recent history of injuries. Their $7 million agreement with Aaron Jones, hours after he was released by the Green Bay Packers, was an important moment in the ongoing understanding of how general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah -- one of the most analytically inclined general managers in NFL history -- approaches team-building.
A paradigm of modern analytics suggests that the supply of running backs and their shorter career spans necessitate a level of economic prudence that belies their skill levels. The Vikings seemed to follow that model after releasing starter Dalvin Cook last year, replacing him by promoting long-term backup Alexander Mattison and using affordable options to stock depth behind him. Mattison's 2023 compensation of $3.65 million ranked No. 22 among NFL running backs, and his primary backups -- Ty Chandler and Cam Akers -- were still on their rookie contracts.
But after that collection produced the fourth-fewest rushing yards (1,553) and tied for the fewest rushing touchdowns (7) in the league last season, the Vikings released Mattison and joined several other teams in the bidding for free agent upgrades. Jones' one-year contract includes $6 million fully guaranteed and makes him the NFL's 11th-highest-paid running back for 2024.
"A lot goes into [running back philosophy]," Adofo-Mensah said. "Projections, calculations, things like that. But ultimately, that stuff is just a guardrail. You look at a player's production, and you know the person and who he is. You look at what he adds to that room. And we feel really good about what we had in that room to start. ... But we're excited about Aaron.
"And you know, we get the conversation about running backs and age and different things like that, but I think as you've seen this year in the market, maybe that dynamic has gone a little too far to the other side, and teams are realizing that there's still really good players. That they're valued, and it's a position where you can really upgrade performance at a pretty efficient [price]."
Efficiency is relative, of course, and Adofo-Mensah was not the only NFL general manager who jumped into the running back market. The Packers (Josh Jacobs), Philadelphia Eagles (Saquon Barkley), Houston Texans (Joe Mixon), Chicago Bears (D'Andre Swift), Baltimore Ravens (Derrick Henry) and Tennessee Titans (Tony Pollard) acquired running backs on deals that will pay each of them at least $8 million in 2024.
But it was especially notable for the Vikings, who have employed one of the NFL's most pass-heavy offenses since Adofo-Mensah and coach Kevin O'Connell were hired in 2022. In fact, the most obvious reason their running game has ranked near the bottom of NFL statistical reports is that it simply has not been used as often as most teams.
In 34 games under O'Connell, the Vikings have the NFL's seventh-fewest rushing attempts by running backs (680) and are tied for the second-most dropbacks by their quarterbacks (1,438). That split made sense in a scheme designed to maximize Cousins' connection with receiver Justin Jefferson, but in their post-Cousins world (presumptive starter Sam Darnold and likely a rookie taken in the draft), the Vikings will need more balance.
Jones brings with him a strong record of production as a pass-catching running back, having caught the NFL's ninth-most passes (272) and fourth-most touchdown receptions (18) by a running back since entering the league in 2017. Yet it's his vision and instincts that could have the biggest impact on the Vikings' offense.
In his career, Jones has averaged 5.0 yards per carry. Only one NFL runner during that period has taken at least 200 carries and produced a higher average of yards per carry: the Cleveland Browns' Nick Chubb. No runner in Vikings history has matched that career milestone.
"I think he enhances our room more than just the addition of another running back," O'Connell said. "It's how he puts his skill set with Ty and our other runners in the room and, more importantly, what he may unlock from things he's done in this league, things that fit for our offense. He's a complete back from a standpoint of a guy who's played a lot of football.
"He is 29 years old, but he's also been part of an offense where he hasn't had to carry the full burden, the full load, and the impact on third down as a pass-protector, a receiver out of the backfield. Five yards-per-carry career average. This is a guy that's had the type of impact we were looking for."
Indeed, O'Connell and Adofo-Mensah have every plan to pair Jones with Chandler in the kind of tandem the Packers used often in recent years. That approach would hedge against the reality of running backs of Jones' age, as well as the hamstring and knee injuries that slowed him last season.
In the past five seasons, 96 NFL running backs have taken at least one carry in seasons they began at age 29 or older. Of that group, 20% produced 500 or more rushing yards. The median rushing total for a season among those runners is 80 yards.
If nothing else, however, the Vikings have approached their 2024 running game with more intent, more cash and less reverence for the guardrails of analytic dogma.
"I'm on a mission to be the best running back in the NFL," Jones said, "and I'm glad I get to prove that here in Minnesota."