FRISCO, Texas -- With a 3-3 record, the Dallas Cowboys are certainly in contention to make the playoffs for a fourth straight season, although even that could be in question in a matter of weeks.
When the Cowboys return from their Week 7 bye, they play the San Francisco 49ers (3-3) at Levi's Stadium. They have lost their past two visits there: a 42-10 regular-season loss last season and a score-is-closer-than-it-seemed 19-12 loss in the divisional round of the 2022 playoffs.
After that, they play four games against playoff-caliber teams in the Atlanta Falcons (4-2), Philadelphia Eagles (3-2), Houston Texans (5-1) and Washington Commanders (4-2). The Eagles and Texans games are at AT&T Stadium, where the Cowboys this season are 0-3 and have been outscored by 66 points.
By the time they get to Thanksgiving, the talk might not be playoffs; it could be draft positioning.
How did it get to this point?
The offseason approach gives some clues, although speaking on 105.3 The Fan on Tuesday, owner and general manager Jerry Jones didn't want to go there.
"Y'all really think you're going to sit here with a microphone and tell me all of the things that I've done wrong and without going over the rights?" Jones said.
It goes beyond the length of time it took to sign wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and quarterback Dak Prescott to contracts that make them the second-highest-paid receiver in the NFL and the highest-paid player in NFL history.
After the stunning 48-32 loss to the Green Bay Packers in the wild-card round in January, the Cowboys knew they faced difficult decisions on their impending free agents.
They tried to keep running back Tony Pollard with a lucrative multiyear offer that was not far off the three-year deal he signed with the Tennessee Titans (three years, with a max of $24 million and $10.49 million guaranteed). He has 339 yards on 78 carries and three touchdowns in five games.
The Cowboys never made a call to Derrick Henry despite the fact that he lives in the Dallas area. The free agent running back signed a two-year deal with the Baltimore Ravens that guaranteed him $9 million. After seeing Henry rush for 151 yards and two touchdowns against Dallas in Week 3, Jones said the Cowboys could not afford him. With a different structure of the deal, though, the Cowboys could have matched that guaranteed money, but it was their choice to pass on Henry, who leads the NFL in rushing (704 yards).
Instead, the Cowboys re-signed Rico Dowdle to a one-year, $1.255 million deal, including a $200,000 signing bonus, and signed Ezekiel Elliott, the franchise's third-leading rusher of all time, who spent last season with the New England Patriots. Elliott received a one-year deal worth up to $3 million with $2 million guaranteed.
In August, the Cowboys signed Dalvin Cook, a four-time 1,000-yard rusher, to the practice squad, but he has yet to be elevated for a game.
Dowdle has 246 yards on 59 carries. Elliott has 115 yards on 38 carries. The Cowboys have the worst-ranked run offense in the NFL, averaging 77.2 yards a game and just 3.5 yards per carry.
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Some of that can be traced to the offensive line.
The Cowboys felt they could not match the deal made by the New York Jets with Dallas' eight-time Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith. Last season, Smith played on a reworked deal that guaranteed him $6 million. He made another $3 million in incentives.
Given Smith's age (33) and health (he has not played a full season since 2015), the Cowboys' path made sense. He signed a one-year deal with the Jets that would max out at $20 million if he hits on a series of playing-time incentives.
To fill Smith's void, the Cowboys re-signed Chuma Edoga, who has been on injured reserve with a toe injury suffered in the preseason, to a one-year, $1.292 million deal with $500,000 guaranteed and drafted Tyler Guyton in the first round, No. 29 overall.
Guyton started the first five games but missed the loss to the Lions in part because of a knee injury suffered versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. He had some positive moments, but he has given up three sacks and has been penalized eight times (six accepted). His pass block win rate is 87.5%. With the Jets, Smith has given up four sacks in six games, has been penalized five times (two accepted) and has an 84.5% pass block win rate.
"These young rookies, they're never ascending as quickly as you'd like, but he's doing a nice job progressing," offensive line coach Mike Solari said of Guyton. "He's getting better. It's just consistency. And he's on it. He knows what he needs to work on, and I think we'll see an ascending player. He's going to be a very good football player for us."
At center, third-round pick Cooper Beebe replaced Tyler Biadasz, who left for a three-year, $30 million contract with the Commanders that included $20.7 million guaranteed.
Beebe had never played the spot in a game before and has earned praise from fellow linemen and coaches. Biadasz has been a stalwart for a Washington offense that has improved greatly with Jayden Daniels at quarterback.
Biadasz has higher pass block and run block win rates than Beebe, but the Cowboys believe Beebe will grow into a long-term solution at center.
On the defensive line, poor fortune has hurt more than poor decision-making.
Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr. chose to follow former coordinator Dan Quinn to the Commanders. Armstrong received $16.25 million guaranteed, which was out of the Cowboys' budget for a third pass rusher. Fowler received $1.43 million guaranteed, but his ties to Quinn go back to college.
The Cowboys had 2022 second-round pick Sam Williams ready for a larger pass-rushing role behind Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, but he suffered a season-ending torn left ACL during training camp. In April, the Cowboys selected Marshawn Kneeland in the second round, but he suffered a knee injury on Oct. 6 against the Steelers that required surgery and landed him on injured reserve.
Without Parsons (high left ankle sprain) and Lawrence (mid-foot sprain) recently, the Cowboys have been forced to play Chauncey Golston, Tyrus Wheat, Carl Lawson and KJ Henry in larger roles. Lawson joined the team late in training camp. Henry joined the team two weeks ago.
"It's a work in progress," defensive line coach Jeff Zgonina said. "It happens every year to every team. It's not just us. I mean every team across the league has had injury issues throughout the course of the year. You just continually get guys ready in case the situation comes up."
The trade deadline is Nov. 5. The Cowboys have needs to fill -- just like they did in the offseason -- especially on the defensive line and potentially at receiver. In 2018, they made a big trade to acquire Amari Cooper from the Raiders, and it helped transform their season. At the time of the deal, the Cowboys were 3-4. They finished 10-6 and won a playoff game.
The Jets (acquiring Davante Adams) and Buffalo Bills (Cooper) made splash trades on Tuesday. The Cowboys have more than $20 million in salary cap space, but they need most of that for the impending cap hits of Zack Martin ($9.4 million), Lawrence ($7.445 million) and Brandin Cooks ($4 million) when their deals void in the offseason.
Will the Cowboys give up draft capital and salary cap space to fix the issues on a team that has not proved capable of hanging with the better teams?
Before his appearance on the team's flagship network and immediately after the 38-point loss to the Lions, Jones was asked whether he believes the roster is talented enough at the moment for the Cowboys to be one of the top teams.
"I do," he said.
Why?
"I just do," he said.