People like to be correct.
This is why many people like to gamble, are infatuated with weather forecasts, predict the future of the planet and passionately make sports predictions. We have so many sports talk radio stations around the world. We want to be right, and we want others to know we are right so that when we have future opinions, viewpoints or predictions, you will respect us more. Listen to us!
And yet, I've learned to live by the credo that nobody really knows anything. I mean, do we really know when the sun is going to burn out? Do we really know whether it will snow this weekend? Do we really know whether the Washington Capitals will ever win their first Stanley Cup?
We can look at numbers that reflect the past -- distant and immediate -- and they can guide us to Probability Island. But they can also leave us stranded on that island, holding our Fenwicks.
Last year, if you took my Western Conference playoff predictions and told a friend, "If BucciMane gets all of these correct, 8-for-8, you give me $500. If he gets just one wrong, I will give you $500," that would be a bet you'd have to take. It's really hard to go 8-for-8. But I did (here's proof). I went 6-for-8 in the East, which is what I consider B or A material.
Let's look at the predictions I made in October for this season and see how they're panning out. I put a nonscientific confidence percentage next to each team to indicate how I feel now about my prediction.
Eastern Conference
My '16-17 Eastern Conf playoff teams:@TBLightning@FlaPanthers@CanadiensMTL@Capitals@penguins@NYIslanders@NYRangers@NJDevils
— Bucci Mane (@Buccigross) October 11, 2016
Tampa Bay Lightning (50%): The Lightning are not in a good position, and obviously the main reason is the injury to Steven Stamkos. Tampa Bay has to hop multiple teams, and a couple of those teams have games in hand. The Lightning need to mount one of those long winning streaks that we've seen this season from other teams.
Florida Panthers (50%): The Panthers are in the same sailboat as Tampa Bay. Can they put it together and leap over Toronto and Boston for a top-three spot in the Atlantic Division -- or take advantage if the current wild-card Flyers falter? Florida is 27th in goals scored. It's a coin toss. An uncomfortable coin toss.
Montreal Canadiens (99%): If Montreal blows this, Patrick Roy will have 17 job titles in the organization by the end of April.
Washington Capitals (99%): My preseason Cup pick. The odds-on favorite to win the Presidents' Trophy again. And they've given up the fewest goals in the league. The Caps will have salary-cap casualties after the season, so the sense of urgency is there. They have younger players who can still improve.
Pittsburgh Penguins (99%): Sidney Crosby has been in playoff mode since Game 1. He hadn't done that in regular seasons past.
New York Islanders (51%): The Islanders have a slightly better chance than Florida and Tampa Bay because of the games they have in hand, but New York has played nine fewer road games. The Isles had better be a good road team down the stretch if they want to get a wild card. The next 10 to 13 games will determine their season.
New York Rangers (75%): Barring catastrophe, the Rangers are in for at least a wild card. Only the Penguins have scored more goals than the Rangers this season. They've been up and down this season -- and average of late -- but the idea is to solidify and peak in March and April.
New Jersey Devils (10%): The Devils have to hop eight teams in 32 games. The good news is they have played six more road games than home games. New Jersey hasn't played as well as I thought it would. The Devils are 28th in goals scored.
Worst-case prediction scenario: 4-for-8
Best-case prediction scenario: 6-for-8
Western Conference
My '16-'17 Western Conf. Playoff teams..@DallasStars@NHLBlackhawks@StLouisBlues@mnwild@PredsNHL@SanJoseSharks@LAKings@EdmontonOilers
— Bucci Mane (@Buccigross) October 12, 2016
Dallas Stars (50%): This fan base is beyond frustrated. It's been such a disappointing, disjointed season for the Stars. But they still have time to finish strong and get a wild-card spot. It's a coin flip. Only Winnipeg has given up more goals.
Chicago Blackhawks (99%): This is Joel Quenneville's eighth full season as head coach of the Blackhawks. He is 8-for-8 in making the playoffs with Chicago.
St. Louis Blues (45%): The Blues have played five fewer home games and give you a lot of goals. They have Los Angeles and Dallas in their rearview mirror. But they're 25th in goals against. They have to fix that now.
Minnesota Wild (99%): The Wild should win the Central Division. This is their best team ever. Bruce Boudreau should be a coach of the year finalist, along with John Tortorella and Mike Babcock.
Nashville Predators (65%): If they fire up another 7-2-1 stretch over their next 10, the Predators will be in the clear. But they aren't out of the woods yet. I'm pretty confident they are in good shape.
San Jose Sharks (88%): Brent Burns will win the Norris Trophy. The Pacific race is the tightest division in the league.
Los Angeles Kings (60%): The Kings are in a good position to make a final push to get a wild-card berth. They have games in hand on Calgary and have played three fewer home games. Jeff Carter should get MVP votes (though he won't win the award) if LA makes the postseason. He has carried this team.
Edmonton Oilers (97%): I was ridiculed for this pick by fellow media types who shall remain nameless. (I should have saved a screenshot of a direct message I got.) In my mind, this makes Connor McDavid the unquestioned MVP.
Worst-case prediction scenario: 5-for-8
Best-case prediction scenario: 7-for-8
Total worst-case scenario: 9-for-16
Total best-case scenario: 13-for-16.
Bubble teams
It's a hard-salary-cap league, and every season there are a handful of bubble teams. I was actually close to taking the Ottawa Senators in the East. I figured the Boston Bruins would be right on the bubble again, and it looks like they will be. I think Toronto is going to make it as a top-three Atlantic team unless the goaltending really falters and/or the Maple Leafs choose not to add players down the stretch. The Buffalo Sabres are finally getting things together after injuries sabotaged the start of their season. I thought the Detroit Red Wings had an uncertain combo of new players and young players to extend their playoff streak.
The Vancouver Canucks have overachieved a bit, and I figured the Winnipeg Jets would give up too many goals. I don't know why the Jets wouldn't trade for Marc-Andre Fleury, whose style seems to complement theirs. I thought the Anaheim Ducks would not get in. They have only a plus-4 goal differential, yet they have 63 points coming out of the All-Star break.
The NFL season is almost finished. One more game. More hockey fans are already starting to migrate back to the game. Nine-month regular seasons are too long for most. They are ready for the 4½-month push that begins now.
In the NHL, the regular season isn't about "Just win, baby." It's "Just get in, baby." Then, I predict, it's anyone's game.
Let's go!