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Bills-Jets Monday night: NFL betting odds, picks, tips

Aaron Rodgers gives the Jets a proven signal-caller they haven't had in years. Mike Stobe/Getty Images

Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season wraps up Monday night as the Buffalo Bills face the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Bills are coming off a 13-win season that ended with a playoff loss to Cincinnati, while the Jets failed to reach eight wins in 2022 for the seventh season in a row but add Aaron Rodgers and Dalvin Cook to the offense.

What can we expect from a betting standpoint for Monday night's game? And are the big new additions to the Jets' offense going to make an immediate impact?

Betting analysts Tyler Fulghum, Erin Dolan, Eric Moody and Seth Walder are here to provide their thoughts.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.


The Bills (-2, 45.5) begin the season as road favorites against the new-look Jets. Do you see this as a tough spot for the Bills?

Walder: I do! I know defense is notoriously variable from year-to-year but I do look at the Jets talent at corner and depth in pass rush and think this is going to be a tough group to move the ball against. On the other hand, I do worry that a questionable offensive line and lack of receiving options after Garrett Wilson will slow down the Jets' offense, too. Put it all together, and I'm looking at under 45.5 rather than a side.

Josh Allen played half of last season with a partially torn UCL in his right elbow and wasn't himself during that stretch. Do you expect to see the Allen of old against the Jets?

Dolan: Allen should look more like he did when he was healthy, but I am most interested in seeing his chemistry with Stefon Diggs. There was chatter about offseason drama between Diggs and Allen, which would be unfortunate given that Diggs finished with 1,429 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns in 16 games played.

Moody: I expect to see the Allen of old against the Jets. From a film perspective, his mechanics were off because of the soreness from the injury and wearing a brace. Allen's return to full health should allow the Bills' offense to be more in sync and what bettors are used to seeing in Buffalo. To Erin's point, the offseason drama seems to be over. In 49 games with Allen, Diggs has 338 receptions for 4,189 receiving yards and 29 touchdowns. The dynamic duo will do just fine.

Rodgers is just one season removed from back-to-back MVP awards. What do you expect to see out of Rodgers in the opener, and do you anticipate immediate continuity on the Jets' offense with the future Hall of Famer under center?

Moody: Rodgers should be sharp in the season opener. He has been through everything imaginable during his career. Rodgers' four MVPs and Super Bowl win make him a future Hall of Fame quarterback. There is a frenzy among Jets fans now that the front office has finally found the franchise quarterback they have longed for. Rodgers sounds and looks like he has found the fountain of youth. He's 9-0 in his past nine "Monday Night Football" games. In fact, 2013 was Rodgers' last Monday Night Football loss. On their home field, Rodgers and the Jets will be ready for prime time.

Fulghum: I expect Rodgers to be extremely motivated to show he's still capable of playing at an MVP level. If Rodgers is motivated -- and enjoying himself as much as he seems to be -- I think he's going to play very well. I like the Jets in this game because Robert Saleh has an elite defensive unit that has had success against Allen in the past, and Rodgers is going to elevate the offense.

Is there anything else you are playing in this game?

Dolan: Josh Allen OVER 0.5 interceptions. Allen had two interceptions in one of the two games played last season against the Jets and has had four interceptions in season openers as a starter. Allen will get it going through the air, and the Jets' defense will force a turnover after having 14 interceptions in 16 games played. Weather could also play an impact here.

Dolan: First Half UNDER 23 points. I expect both defenses to hold down the fort and the offenses to struggle at times. The Bills ranked second in yards allowed per game, while the defense ranked fourth in yards allowed per game. In two games last season between the two teams, there was an average of 16 points scored in the first half. I played a first-half under for "Thursday Night Football" with the expectation that both teams will struggle in the first half because of Week 1 chemistry issues. I don't expect this "Monday Night Football" game to be a shootout, but rather I expect a slow, strategic game.

Walder: Jordan Poyer OVER 4.5 tackles + assists (+108). Poyer doesn't have a huge tackle share for a safety (9.3%), but my model thinks this number is low, pegging him at 5.5 tackles. Plus, his tackle share was higher in 2021(10.5%) when he played alongside Micah Hyde. With Hyde back now, my hope is Poyer would have a larger role against the run.

Moody: Dalton Kincaid OVER 27.5 receiving yards. Kincaid, whom the Bills selected at No. 25 in this year's draft after trading up two spots, and Dawson Knox are both talented tight ends. Kincaid was considered the best pure pass-catcher in this year's class, and Buffalo is sure to take advantage of that by leaning more on 12 personnel this season. Last season, the Jets' defense gave up 5.5 receptions and 61.1 yards per game to tight ends. Relying on a rookie in his NFL debut might give some bettors heartburn, but Allen leaned heavily on Knox last season in two games against the Jets. Just imagine what Kincaid can do.

Moody: Garrett Wilson OVER 68.5 receiving yards. Rodgers likes to pepper his No. 1 receiver with targets. When Davante Adams was paired with Rodgers in Green Bay, Adams averaged 8.7 targets per game. Despite the Jets' massive quarterback troubles last season, Wilson caught 56.5% of his 147 targets for 1,103 receiving yards and won Offensive Rookie of the Year. Now he'll be catching passes from Rodgers, who sports a career 65.3% completion percentage. Watch out for Wilson and Rodgers in 2023.