The 4-1 Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, 47) host the 1-4 Denver Broncos on "Thursday Night Football," with the Chiefs being winners of the past 14 meetings between their AFC West rivals.
So what can we expect from a betting standpoint for Thursday night's game?
Betting analysts Tyler Fulghum, Eric Moody, Anita Marks, Seth Walder and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
The Chiefs have won 14 straight meetings against the Broncos outright, going 9-5 ATS in that span. How are you betting this game?
Schatz: I'm still picking against the Broncos' historically horrible defense. Mahomes should have eons of time to throw, as the Chiefs rank second in pass block win rate while the Broncos' pass rush is 29th. I also think this is a good game for the Chiefs' defense to shine a bit. Russell Wilson has been very good throwing deep since he came to Denver -- even last year! -- but the Chiefs rank sixth in DVOA against deep passes this season. So Chiefs -10.5 is good for me.
Moody: I'm backing the Chiefs to cover Thursday night. The Broncos' defense continues to be a liability. Denver has given up at least 30 points three times this season and leads the league in total yards allowed and rushing yards allowed. Now the Broncos face Patrick Mahomes and Isiah Pacheco on their home field. Kansas City hasn't looked as synchronized offensively as we've seen in the past, but history suggests they'll do just fine on Thursday night. The Chiefs have scored 144 points against the Broncos in their last five head-to-head meetings. Over that time period, Kansas City's defense has only allowed 84 points.
Marks: Same Game Parlay KC ML, Pacheco anytime TD, Pacheco over 50 rush yards (-110). KC has the second best scoring offense and the best third down conversion rate. Denver's defense is allowing the most explosive passing plays in the league and a 77% completion percentage to opposing QBs. Pacheco is handing 70% of the touches out of the backfield the last two weeks and has a favorable matchup against a Broncos rush defense that has allowed eight rushing touchdowns in five games.
Some might see Patrick Mahomes as being off to a slow start statistically (10 TD, 4 INT), but he enters Week 6 as the favorite for MVP (+425). At these odds, is this a bet you're interested in?
Walder: I could be convinced, yes. This is a quarterback's award, so we can throw out the Christian McCaffreys and Micah Parsons' of the world. And then narratively, Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa will be discounted because of their weapons and scheme. So I see this coming down to Mahomes vs. Josh Allen, perhaps with Justin Herbert looming in the background. But Mahomes is the best QB on the planet and only has one great receiving option so I think he has a better chance to win the award than +425 is indicating.
The Broncos' win total is now set at 4.5 games. Do you think they're going to get there after such a nightmare start to 2023?
Schatz: In general, defense is less consistent than offense. Many of the worst defensive starts in history were followed up by that defense playing badly, but not too badly, the rest of the way. So I do think the Broncos' defense will improve. The smart simulations say the Broncos are more likely to hit 4.5 than to not -- but not by much. The ESPN FPI has them averaging 4.8. That's too close for me to play an over, but the Broncos will probably get there.
What's your favorite prop in this game?
Schatz: The Kansas City Chiefs are the No. 1 defense in DVOA so far against opposing No. 1 wide receivers, allowing them just 48 yards per game. Meanwhile, Jerry Jeudy has gone under his Thursday night number in three of four games so far this year. So give me Jeudy under 54.5 yards in this game.
Moody: Pacheco over 74.5 rushing yards. Running backs have eviscerated the Broncos' defense this season. Denver's defense gave up 177 rushing yards to Breece Hall last week and 103 to Khalil Herbert the week before. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Pacheco has one of the highest success rates among running backs since entering the league in 2022. Also, his ability to create yards after contact and force missed tackles makes him one of the best in the game. Like a Halloween pumpkin, Pacheco will carve up this Broncos run defense.
Marks: Pacheco anytime TD (-165). Travis Kelce is hobbling into this game with an injured ankle and the wide receiving group hasn't done much this season. Pacheco should be a large part of the game plan against one of the league's worst rush defenses.
Walder: Chris Jones under 0.5 sacks (+143 at BetRivers). There aren't many less fun bets than this one: a good pass rusher on a heavy favorite going against a QB that has a propensity for being taken down by defenders. But if you're not going to watch the game (or willing to bear rooting against Jones every snap), I have this as a really nice value, with a 56% chance Jones goes under, removing pushes.
Is there anything else you are playing on Thursday?
Moody: Pacheco first touchdown scorer. There is a good chance Pacheco scores the first touchdown for the Chiefs. As I mentioned above, the Broncos have given up a ton of rushing yards this season and Denver has also allowed four opposing running backs to record one or more rushing touchdowns against them. I'd be surprised if Andy Reid didn't heavily rely on the Chiefs' offensive line and running game in this matchup, despite the Chiefs' aerial game.
Walder: Zach Allen under 0.25 sacks (-180 at DraftKings). Mahomes is an absolute machine at avoiding sacks, with a league-best 2.0% sack rate on his dropbacks. Allen is a nice player but his 14% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle ranks just 18th with 1.5 sacks. Put those two things together and I have -180 as a nice little value.