What is worth betting in the NFL in Week 6? And what are the best plays to help you make smart wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum, Seth Walder and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
Which game are you looking forward to betting the most this week?
Schatz: I'm a believer in the Detroit Lions, who are currently having the best start over five games of any Detroit team since at least 1981. They haven't done this against an easy schedule; they beat Kansas City, after all. I'm not a believer in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The defense has been better than expected, especially against the pass, but they've still been mediocre on offense and against the run. I expect a large dose of David Montgomery, making both Detroit -3 and Montgomery anytime touchdown good plays this week.
Walder: Cowboys-Chargers on "Monday Night Football." It's an interesting test for Dallas after getting blown out by the 49ers last week. My hunch: The Cowboys' offense is actually somewhat in trouble. Going into last week's game they ranked fourth in points but 10th in EPA per play, despite playing the easiest schedule in the league to that point. In other words: The defense was covering for just mediocre play from Dallas' offense. Because of that, I'm wary of Dallas on Monday and going forward, so I like the Chargers to cover +2.
Moody: I'm looking forward to watching the Jaguars host the Colts in Jacksonville. When Anthony Richardson's shoulder injury landed him on injured reserve, Indianapolis turned to Gardner Minshew, who faces his former team. This game has other narratives that intrigue me. With a win, the Colts could take over first place in the AFC South. Since 2014, the Jaguars haven't lost a home game in the series. Is Jacksonville able to transfer the momentum it has across the pond to the U.S.? I'm taking the Jaguars to cover the spread in this game. Jacksonville is 9-3 against the spread in their past 12 games. While the Colts are 1-7 against the spread in their past eight games against the Jaguars.
Rain and wind are in the forecast for a number of games on Sunday, including the 49ers-Browns game. Does the weather create any betting opportunity in the 49ers game (or the two other weather games, SEA/CIN, NYG/BUF)?
Fulghum: I think it does. It looks like the Browns may be relying on yet another backup quarterback in PJ Walker. Against the San Francisco 49ers' defense in pristine weather, that's tough enough. Add the elements? Sounds imposing as can be for the Cleveland offense. I would be willing to lay the points with a 49ers team that is 4-0-1 ATS and play the total under mostly due to the belief that the Browns will do very little to contribute to the scoreboard.
Moody: The weather creates a betting opportunity in the Giants and Bills game. One prop immediately entered my mind, and that's James Cook over 56.5 rushing yards. The Giants rank 23rd in run stop win rate. New York has also given up the second-most rushing yards to running backs. In the event that the weather is truly a factor, the Bills running game should thrive behind their offensive line, a unit that ranks ninth in run block win rate.
Five teams have shorter than 10-1 odds to win the Super Bowl as we approach the one-third mark of the NFL season: 49ers (+380), Chiefs (+550), Eagles (+750), Dolphins (+900) and Bills (+900). At these odds, based on what you've seen, which team are you putting money on to win it all?
Fulghum: My pick prior to the season starting was the San Francisco 49ers. They've only strengthened my conviction that they are the best football team in the NFL and are properly listed as the betting favorite at the moment. I would not suggest betting the number now. If I had to get involved right now, I would suggest betting the Eagles at +750. I think the two best teams in the NFL are in the NFC and whoever gets out of that title game is going to be the favorite in the Super Bowl.
Walder: The Dolphins. Maybe it's being stubborn, because they were my preseason pick. But the offensive ceiling that team possesses is incredible, and I think by the end of the year that defense will look like a top 10 unit, too. They just have too much talent on that side of the ball.
Schatz: My preseason Super Bowl pick was San Francisco vs. Buffalo and I still think both of those teams are good plays with the current odds. San Francisco is one of the best teams of the past 40 years this early in the season. At some point, somebody is going to figure out how to slow down that offense a little bit, but then you still have to outscore them by putting up points on an excellent defense. Buffalo, meanwhile, comes out as the best 3-2 team of the past 40 years by my DVOA ratings. Yes, they've lost two important players on defense, but they also have the 26th-strongest remaining schedule by average DVOA of their opponents. The door is not shut on the Bills yet.
Justin Jefferson, De'Von Achane, Anthony Richardson and James Conner were all placed on IR this week. Which one of these injuries stands out most from a betting perspective?
Fulghum: The Achane and Richardson injuries are most significant to me because of the Offensive Rookie of the Year market. Achane had burst to second-favorite before the news of his injury broke. Richardson had arguably been the most exciting rookie to watch down-to-down in the league. With both of them now on the shelf, this appears to be a three-player race between the favorite, QB C.J. Stroud; the preseason favorite, RB Bijan Robinson; and the biggest rookie surprise in the league, WR Puka Nacua. If Stroud doesn't get hurt or miss time, he's probably going to be hard to beat. But if you think he might go down, or lose steam, invest your money in one of the other two.
Schatz: Normally, I would say a quarterback injury was the most important, especially when it comes to betting games. But Richardson is still far from a finished product and Gardner Minshew gives the Colts one of the best backups in the league. Meanwhile, the entire Vikings offense is built around Jefferson. They won games last year by just chucking it up to Jefferson and hoping he would do something fantastic. Going without Jefferson is a big blow to their ability to win games (or cover spreads).
Moody: I agree with Fulghum that the Achane injury is significant as his absence impacts a number of Dolphins wagers, including win totals and Tua Tagovailoa as the MVP. The Dolphins lead the league in total yards and points scored per game, and Achane has played a big part in that. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. also have a history of injuries, which doesn't help Miami's backfield moving forward.
What is your favorite prop bet on Sunday?
Fulghum: Puka Nacua OVER 66.5 receiving yards. The Rams rookie receiver has eclipsed this number in all five games of his short career. Most importantly, he did so last week, earning 11 targets that netted 7 receptions, 71 yards and a TD with Cooper Kupp back in the lineup. It's clear the Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford are going to feed both Kupp and Nacua close to two-thirds of the teams targets game-to-game. In a juicy matchup against a soft Arizona defense, Nacua is in a great spot to beat this number.
Walder: Jalen Carter UNDER 0.75 sacks (-105 at DraftKings). He ranks second in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle, has 3.5 sacks already, is playing against Zach Wilson (who takes sacks at a higher-than-average 8% clip) and is on a team that is a heavy favorite. All reasons to think Carter will get a sack, right? The problem is: Carter doesn't play that much. Just 51% of snaps so far this year, and he plays much less than other top defensive tackles in clear pass rushing situations, too. That's a huge factor, and why I'm on the under at this price.
Schatz: The New York Jets rank No. 5 in DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers. In fact, they've only allowed 3.4 passes and 19 yards per game to opposing WR2s. It makes sense, because the Jets prefer to keep their cornerbacks to specific sides rather than using Sauce Gardner to follow the opposition's top target. The Jets also rank third against deep passes of 16 or more air yards but 25th against shorter passes. That sounds like a recipe for a big A.J. Brown day, so I'm thinking UNDER 53.5 yards for DeVonta Smith.
Moody: Matthew Stafford OVER 279.5 passing yards. The veteran quarterback has averaged 290.2 passing yards per game this season and now has Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua as his top two receivers. That'll work! The Cardinals' defense has given up the seventh most passing yards per game and nearly 8.0 yards per pass attempt. In Stafford's last five games against the Cardinals, he averaged 294.2 passing yards per game.
Is there anything else you are playing on Sunday?
Walder: Camryn Bynum under 6.5 tackles + assists (-120). Deep cut here but I'm projecting Bynum at just 5.3 tackles + assists. A big reason why: He has a much higher tackle share on designed pass plays (as you'd expect). Chicago isn't as run-heavy as you might think, but they still lean that way and that works in the under's favor here.
Moody: Zay Flowers OVER 56.5 receiving yards. While the Titans' defense is strong up front, their pass defense is the exact opposite. Kristian Fulton has been injured all season and has given up 267 receiving yards. This matchup has been exploited all season by Josh Downs, Ja'Marr Chase, Michael Pittman, and others. On Sunday, Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers will want to do the same.
Moody: T.J. Hockenson OVER 54.5 receiving yards. It has been a difficult week for the Vikings since Justin Jefferson went on injured reserve after sustaining a hamstring injury last week. With so much of Minnesota's passing offense revolving around Jefferson drawing coverage, the team will have to adjust its offensive strategy. The Vikings have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game. Against a Bears defense that gives up the second most passing yards per game, Hockenson can fill the void. Over the course of his career, he has averaged 64.4 receiving yards per game when he has been targeted seven or more times.
Moody: Brandon Aiyuk OVER 3.5 receptions. Like a moth to a flame, I find myself drawn to this prop bet with plus odds. Aiyuk has averaged 5.2 receptions per game this season. Now I know what you're thinking -- the Browns' defense have allowed the fewest passing yards per game. Aiyuk has dominated man coverage this season, and Cleveland is the league leader in man coverage. I think Aiyuk can surprise bettors in this matchup.