It has been a rough start to the NFL season for the American betting public. However, Week 5 brought change, a bevy of short point spreads and a shift in the public's fortunes.
Week 5 began with a string of eight straight favorites winning outright. Seven of them covered the spread, and Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry and New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson -- the two most-bet players to score touchdowns at ESPN BET -- both found the end zone. After the early seven-game slate wrapped up on Sunday, sportsbooks were in a hole.
"The morning games were ugly," said Westgate SuperBook executive director John Murray, noting his shop's biggest needs on the day (the Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals) all failed to deliver for the house.
The Bengals squandered a 10-point fourth-quarter lead and lost 41-38 in overtime to the heavily bet Ravens, who covered as 2.5-point favorites. On Sunday morning, Baltimore had attracted more bets and more money than any other team at DraftKings. The Bills also lost in overtime, falling 23-20 to the Houston Texans as 1.5-point underdogs. Overtime was not necessary, and the spread wasn't in question for long in the Browns' 34-13 loss to the Washington Commanders.
"This certainly wasn't our day in the NFL," Murray lamented ahead of the night game between the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Sunday could have been even worse for sportsbooks, but the big underdog trend barked again in the afternoon games, with both the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants pulling upsets as 7.5-point 'dogs. There have been nine underdogs of 7.5 points or more this season. They are 8-1 against the spread and 7-2 straight up. The biggest favorite on the board has lost outright in each of the first five weeks of the season.
There haven't been many big spreads this season, though. Eight games this week had spreads below three (-2.5 to pick 'em), the second most in any week this century, according to ESPN Research.
Overall, spreads have been tighter this season. The average NFL point spread so far is 4.09, the tightest through five weeks in the Super Bowl era. There has been only one double-digit favorite, the fewest through five weeks in the Super Bowl era.
Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, said the small spreads split the betting action enough on Sunday that the sportsbook was a "small winner" heading into the Sunday and Monday night games despite seven of the eight largest bets it reported being winners -- including $250,000-winning money line bets on the Minnesota Vikings and Miami Dolphins.
"Direct thanks to the Cardinals and Giants, who saved the day," Mucklow told ESPN. "It was the best week for favorite backers, and the small win can be attributed to a lot of two-way action in many games that were a field goal or less on the spread."
Entering the Monday night game, favorites are 9-4 against the spread and 10-3 outright.
"On to next week," Murray said.
Commodores stem the Tide
Pikkit, an app that allows bettors to sync up their sportsbook accounts, tracked 49,500 bets totaling $2.5 million on the Alabama-Vanderbilt game. Before kickoff, only 103 of the bets were on the Vanderbilt money line.
Well, the Commodores stunned the top-ranked Tide as 22.5-point underdogs, pulling off the upset at around 10-1 on the money line.
Joey Feazel, who oversees college football odds for Caesars Sportsbook, said the pregame action was "heavily one-sided" on Alabama, like it is "every week." The bettors' love of the Tide continued throughout the game. With less than two minutes to play and Vanderbilt salting away the upset, Pikkit tracked money-line bets on Alabama at 52-1 and 48-1.
"The customers were very interested in in-play wagering for this game," Feazel said in an email on Sunday. "Alabama money line was a very nice discount price compared to the pre-match price."
Minnesota, Texas A&M and Arkansas each pulled off outright upsets of ranked teams on Saturday, shaking up the odds on the national championship and Heisman Trophy. Ohio State is now the consensus title favorite (+300), followed by Texas (+425). Alabama fell from +375 to +650 to win the national championship. It's the first time since October 2020 that neither Alabama nor Georgia has been in the top two in the odds to win the national championship. Vanderbilt is 2,000-1.
Crimson Tide QB Jalen Milroe, who entered the game as the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at +260, dropped back to 13-1. Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty (+225) is now the Heisman favorite, followed by Colorado's Travis Hunter (+325) at ESPN BET.
Vikings, Commanders, Broncos outpacing preseason win totals
In the first few weeks of the NFL season, it's fun to find out which teams are outperforming expectations. One of the best ways to track that is to look back at how sportsbooks believed teams would fare and comparing it to where they are now.
This column has lauded the 5-0 Vikings ad nauseum, but it doesn't make their scorching-hot start to the season any less impressive. Minnesota is the NFC's only undefeated team and the only team in the NFL that is undefeated against the spread, after covering -2.5 against the Jets in London.
Minnesota entered the season with a preseason win total of 6.5, its lowest since 2014. The Vikings could hit the over -- supported by less than 50% of the handle at BetMGM and DraftKings -- within the next two weeks.
Another team that showed a 6.5-win total at the beginning of the season was the Commanders, which was actually an improvement over their four wins during the 2023 season. Books were likely bullish on Washington because of the addition of QB Jayden Daniels, who is becoming the runaway favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year at -225.
The Commanders are now 4-1 SU and ATS, with an average cover margin of 9.9, third in the league behind that of Minnesota (13.4) and the New Orleans Saints (15.0). Washington has 77% of its handle on the "yes" option to make the playoffs, per DraftKings.
Finally, one of the teams that books were most down on to start the year was the Denver Broncos (3-2), who came into the campaign with a win total of just 5.5, tied for the largest negative differential (-2.5) from their actual 2023 win count, and the second lowest this season to only the New England Patriots'.
Bo Nix & Co. are on pace to hit the over on their win total for the first time since 2015, which would break the longest active under streak in the NFL. That would be ecstasy for many bettors, as upwards of 91% of the handle at BetMGM and DraftKings is backing the over.
Odds and Ends
4: Ohio State opened as a 4-point road favorite against Oregon.
3: The number of bets that picked a moneyline parlay using every favorite from the first eight NFL games this week, out of over 1 million bets tracked by Pikkit.
0-4: The combined record, straight up and against the spread, for every NFL team the week after playing the Detroit Lions. The Seattle Seahawks lost to the Giants in Week 5 after losing to the Lions in Week 4.
19.4: The number of units a bettor would be up if they had wagered the money line on every underdog of 7 or more points. Such teams are 7-2 outright this season.
45-1: The money-line odds for Miami when trailing Cal 35-10 in the third quarter. The Hurricanes would rally in the fourth for a 39-38 win.
160: The number of entries in the $14.2 million Circa Survivor pool that took the Seahawks, the most of any team this week.
$100,000: The amount wagered by a bettor at Caesars Sportsbook this week on the Ravens to win the Super Bowl at +850 odds. The wager would net $850,000.
$90,000: The amount wagered by a bettor at Caesars Sportsbook this week on the Bills to win the Super Bowl at +950 odds. The wager would net $855,000.
ESPN staff writer Mackenzie Kraemer also contributed to this article.